RADIO
What's up RotoBallers. Welcome back to my series on keeper leagues. Today I'll be taking a look at first basemen keeper values for fantasy baseball (tier one) for those of you deciding what players to keep for your teams.
Keeper Value Rankings are intended for Keeper Leagues in which a fantasy owner must forfeit a designated draft round in order to keep a player into the up-coming season. These rankings are based on Keeper "Values". In the marketing world, Value can be defined as: the extent to which a good or service (player) is perceived by its customer (fantasy owner) to meet his/her needs or wants.
For these specific rankings, 12 team, 5x5 scoring, 23 man roster, Rotisserie league settings were used. If you play in a custom league with non-standard configurations, are thinking of keeping a player not on this list, or want to compare players on your team, follow me on Twitter @RowdyRotoJB or contact me via the RotoBaller Chat Rooms.
Editor's note: Be sure to also check out our 2017 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard. It's already loaded up with tons of great rankings articles and draft analysis. Aside from our tiered staff rankings for every position, we also go deep on MLB prospect rankings, impact rookies for 2017, and dynasty/keeper rankings as well. Bookmark the page, and win your drafts.
How My Keeper Valuation Formula Works
The Keeper Values are derived from my 15 step Keeper Valuation Formula. The product is a quanitative depiction of a players ability to meet/exceed fantasy owners needs based on the cost they payed for the player in the previous season (2016 ADP). The higher the score, the higher the return the fantasy owner will receive from the player, keeping him at his associated cost. Approaching Keeper selections with this "value" based attitude, will greatly increase the effectiveness of a fantasy owner's draft in a Keeper League.
| TIER | SCORE | EXPLANATION |
| 1 | >75 | Finders Keepers! These are the Elite Keeper Values. MUST BE KEPT. |
| 2 | 50-75 | Great Keeper values. Unless you have a full load of Tier 1 players, these guys need to be kept. |
| 3 | 25-49 | You are gaining value with these players, but not as much as your opponents are, potentially. Consider if your options are limited. |
| 4 | 0-24 | Break even point. Minimal value. Only consider if you have a large quantity of Keeper selections. |
| 5 | -99-0 | Keeping these players will hurt your overall draft, as you are not adding any value. Dont waste a Keeper selection here. |
| 6 | <-100 | The associated costs make it impossible to return any value, these players will ruin your draft. Stay far away. |
2017 Top First Basemen Keeper Values: #1-2
2. Freddie Freeman, ATL (Seventh Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 75.66
Many wondered why Frank Wren was so intent on not moving his first baseman during the Braves massive rebuild, but 2016 proved Freddie Freeman belongs amongst the best players in the country. Despite already having two All-Star appearances under his belt, Freeman had a career season after posting personal highs almost across the board. The main improvement the lefty enjoyed was the boost in power after hitting a GB/FB ratio below 1.00 for the first time in six years. He hit 34 HR and 43 doubles, with a .267 ISO, and out-slugged all first basemen with a .569 SLG. Opposing pitchers took notice to the extra muscle Freeman was flexing, and subsequently allowed free passes at a higher rate. This resulted in a .400 OBP, and allowed the youngster to score 102 R on an offense that ranked second to last in runs scored. He also took advantage of this extra time on the bases by swiping six bases just to pad the fantasy value a bit more. This all resulted in the highest WAR at the position, an impressive 6.1.
Freeman's batted ball statistics are just about as sexy as it gets. He has always been known to tear the cover off the ball, but last season increased his Hard% to a terrifying 43.5, second to only the one-and-only David Ortiz. Not only does he hit the ball harder than anyone else currently in the league, but he also turned in the highest LD% (29.1) in the bigs, a trait that will help ensure the BA remains around that .300 mark. Another promising sign Freeman showed was a career high 29.8 Oppo%, showing his improvement as an all-around hitter. The dude even went all Dan Uggla on us and repped out a 30 game hitting streak.
Braves' Freddie Freeman pushes hit streak to 30 games https://t.co/sW6UQbnQNXpic.twitter.com/97WrfHclR6
— CBC Sports (@cbcsports) September 29, 2016
The batted ball statistics were great and all but if you play daily fantasy baseball, you know where Freddie Freeman gains most of his appeal... his ability to destroy lefties. In fact, Freeman was the second best left handed hitter in the league against southpaws. He slashed an impressive .301/.389/.513 with a 140 wRC+ versus those who pitch with the left hand, making him a great start day-in and day-out regardless of who he is squaring off against.
Some fantasy owners may be cautious with Freeman heading into the 2017 season, and there may be a bit of merit to the hesitance. Just a tiny bit though. Freeman did own the highest BABIP among all first basemen, and the .370 mark will unlikely repeat again. He also posted the highest HR/FB% of his career (19.9), while making the lowest amount of contact (72.5 Cont%) and whiffing at a new personal high 14.1% (SwStr). The HR/FB% is perfectly acceptable after hitting 40.5% fly-balls as hard as he hits a baseball, and personally I think it has plenty of room to rise. The contact can raise a few eyebrows, but if that's what it takes for the man to hit 34 HR, post a 1.067 OPS over the second half, and finish sixth in MVP voting, I'm willing to accept it.
RotoBaller currently projects Freeman as the 28th ranked player overall for the 2017 season.
1. Wil Myers, SDP (20th Round ADP) Keeper Valuation Formula Score: 101.70
Speaking of breakout seasons, we mustn't forget the showing Wil Myers put on for us in 2016. After winning Rookie of the Year in 2013, Myers battled injuries the next two seasons and was traded to the San Diego Padres in 2015. Finally healthy, the 26 year old was a popular sleeper pick for 2016 amongst fantasy experts, and he certainly did not disappoint. Along with his first All-Star game appearance, Myers became the first Padres hitter since 2006 (Mike Cameron, remember that guy?) to reach the 20/20 club and missed the 30/30 club by two in each category. To add on to his 28 HR and SB, he scored 99 R, 94 RBI, and slashed .259/.336/.461 with a .202 ISO and 115 wRC+.
Myers statistics would have been great on any team, but it was even more impressive coming out of the Padres lineup that ranked 21st in the league in runs scored. In fact, Myers was the one and only player to finish the season in San Diego to receive enough AB to qualify for the batting title. He led the team in BA, OBP, HR, RBI, and hits.
Wil Myers enters the 2017 season with multiple questions marks that can mostly be traced back to two awful splits. First off, for some reason unbeknownst to anyone, Myers could not hit AWAY from PetCo Park. Historically, that sounds completely absurd for a park that has been a pitchers safe haven. But in 2016, it was actually ranked 12th in the league in both HR and R among stadiums. Myers hit 18 HR with a .954 OPS, 159 wRC+, and .263 ISO at PetCo in 2016. In away games he only hit 10 HR with a measly .633 OPS, 69 wRC+, and .139 ISO. I would like to chunk this split up into the anomaly category. I mean there is just no reason as to why he can hit a 25.6 LD% with a 38.2 Hard% at home and then a 16.6 LD% with a 28.2 Hard% away- other than just a young player feeling comfortable in front of his own crowd. I definitely see this split evening out in 2017, which will greatly boost his overall line.
The more troubling split that haunted Myers last season was a steep decline in production after the All-Star break. Heading into the break, he boasted an impressive .286/.351/.522 line and 132 wRC+. After the break however, he only managed a .223/.316/.381 slash and 91 wRC+. I also will contribute this to his youth, and his body's inexperience for being conditioned to handle the long haul of a MLB season, but it will certainly limit fantasy owners excitement and faith in 2017 drafts.
Despite the second half turmoil Myers experienced last season, there is still little doubt he can evolve into an elite hitter in the bigs. He hit 37 HR in 2012 split between AA and AAA and was heralded as the top prospect in baseball once upon a time. Like Paul Goldschmidt however, the main asset the converted OF will bring to your lineup is his speed out of a generally-slow position. His 6.3 Spd rating ranked 11th in the entire league, and first among first basemen, and his 2.8 wSB value ranked sixth best in the MLB. So for those who are not counting on the steals to return this year, there is little showing truth to that statement. He was only caught six times on 34 attempts, and is on a team that will continue to depend on him to not only get on base, but get into scoring position every single game for success; and he certainly has the legs to do it.
Wil Myers gets through the Keeper Valuation Formula with one of the highest scores of the year, and easily topping first basemen. Expecting at least a repeat of 2016, its simple to see why, based on his lowly 2016 ADP. But don't just take my word for it, I'm not the only one willing to bet on continued success from Wil Myers....
The Padres are betting $83 million that Wil Myers can repeat last season's success: https://t.co/p22A1GmTCz
— Chris Cwik (@Chris_Cwik) January 17, 2017
Keeper Value Articles:
