March 16, 2016

RotoBaller's staff rankings and projections for 2016 fantasy baseball third basemen (3B). Tiered MLB third base ranks, expert draft analysis and fantasy baseball advice.

Oh yeah, you know you love yourself some hot corner action. Third base is one of those premier power spots where you know your team can’t be slouching. If you don't know us by now, the seven rankers are Brad Johnson, Kyle Bishop, Max Petrie, Harris Yudin, Jeff Kahntroff, Bill Dubiel, and myself.

In case you missed them, you can see our updated March tiered rankings and analysis breaking down our thoughts for catcher, first base, second base, shortstop and outfield.

Editor's note: Make sure to also bookmark our Fantasy Baseball Rankings Assistant. The draft prep tool consolidates all our staff ranks in one easy place, shows ADP industry comparisons, and identifies the rankings risers/fallers. Sort our rankings by positional tiers, AL/NL only, dynasty, points leagues, top prospects and more.

Tier One: Kings of the Castle

Four of us have Josh Donaldson at #1, while three of us peg Manny Machado as the top three-bagger for 2016. When all is said and done, all seven of us can come together and agree on those two being joined by Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant in forming the top four options at 3B this year. They are Tier One.

It’s pretty easy to wax poetic about those four. At the time of this article being written, Arenado is 12-for-21 through Spring Training so far, just crushing it. Josh Donaldson is 6-for-14, Manny Machado is 6-for-20, and Kris Bryant is only 3-for-16 so obviously we should all freak out and no one draft him.

I’d personally feel a lot more comfortable with the first three over Bryant, but Bryant’s raw power in the middle of that stacked Cubs lineup is about as juicy as it gets. Is it even fair that all four of these guys play in amazing offenses while also calling four of the top five stadiums for home runs according to ESPN Park Factors home? Sheesh.

Tier Two: Silver Medalists

After that we start to see the deviation occurring, but most interesting to speak on might be Kyle Seager. He seems to be the guy most people just sort of nod at, accept that he’s good, but don’t really think about. In a way, this speaks to his consistency which gives him plenty of value, but in another way it can cause plenty of people to shrug their shoulders and pass over him for a sexier option on draft day.

His power totals have slowly crept upwards (20, 22, 25, and 26 homers in the past four years), but last year his RBIs dropped from 96 to 74, which can turn many people off. He chips in 5-10 stolen bases and will hit somewhere between .260 and .270. He actually dropped his strikeouts drastically last year, from 18.0% to 14.3%, and decreased his soft contact rate from 13.7% to 12.5%. Don’t pass on him due to being “boring”.

Tier Three: Still on the Podium

Tier Three brings those guys who have some question marks. Whether it’s sustainable production (Mike Moustakas, Matt Duffy, Josh Harrison) or durability (Anthony Rendon, Jung-Ho Kang, David Wright), something is giving you pause. Let’s talk about Matt Carpenter though, as many are eyeing the numbers from last year and wondering what to make of it.

Brief refresher: Carpenter hit .272 with 28 bombs and 84 RBIs while scoring 101 runs (and four stolen bases) in 665 PAs. In 2014, with 709 PAs, he hit eight home runs. His ISO soared to .233 as he pulled the ball more (31.9% to 39.3%) and got loft under it (35.2% to 41.7% fly ball rate).

As you might expect, he struck out more but he kept his average at .272 thanks to the quality of his contact and still maintained a good walk rate (12.2%). He’ll get around 700 PAs again, and should tally at least a 95-20-70-4-.270 line for owners.

Tiers Four & Five: Don't You Forget About Me

The next waves of third basemen includes a fascinating wave of afterthoughts, but one in particular that I myself slept on until recently was Danny Valencia. I wrote him off due to the feeling that his growth against right handed pitching from last year wasn’t anything special.

He’s always had some pop in that bat, but it’s normally only been able to be utilized by teams against lefties. He’s a career .321 hitter vs. LHP, while only mustering .237 vs. RHP. This includes last year’s .298 vs. LHP and .285 vs. RHP, where his line drive rate and hard contact was actually higher against righties. He won’t cost you much to see if there’s some sustainability here, and the payoff is a guy who could get 550 PAs this year and bop 25 dingers for you with a decent average.

Another name to be aware of is Trevor Plouffe. He hit 22 homers last year while knocking in 86 runs and hitting a “good enough” .244 along the way. His average fell a bit along with his walk rate, so the OBP (.307) and OPS (.742) aren’t spectacular for a guy who hit as well as he actually did, but those are mighty serviceable stats out of the hot corner.

Some might forget that Plouffe hit 24 home runs in 2012 before posting back-to-back seasons over only 14 bombs apiece in 2013 and 2014. In 2014 his average fly ball distance was 277.43 feet (157^th), but 2015 saw that pop back to 287 feet, good for 100^th in the league. Rest assured, the power is there and there’s no reason he can’t be a 20 home run bat again in 2016.

Tier Six and Beyond: Deep Considerations

Once you get down towards the end of the list, you know you're just hoping to catch lightning in a bottle (or a few fireflies).

It is somewhat noteworthy that David Freese just signed with the Pittsburgh Pirates, but do be aware that he is entering his age-33 season and while your perception of him might be anchored in that crazy 2012, he isn’t that guy.

Freese looks to platoon with John Jaso at first base assuming perfect health for everyone else as Kang should be the everyday third baseman. If Freese does well enough, he could bump Kang to short as Jordy Mercer isn’t all that intimidating.

Last year Freese actually swung the best bat we’ve seen from him since that lucky 2012 of his, as he posted the highest zone-contact (88.7%) and pulled ball (38.1%) rates of his career. Yes, the hard contact and line drives went down - it isn’t going to be all sunshine and rainbows here at the bottom of the barrel. In deep mixed or NL only leagues, Freese is worth your attention.

Third Base Tiered Fantasy Baseball Rankings (March)

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