10 League-Winning Hitters: Fantasy Baseball High Upside Draft Targets and Values

March 15, 2026

Frank analyzes 10 league-winning hitters, fantasy baseball breakouts, values, studs to provide massive return on value in 2026 including Jackson Merrill, Austin Riley, more.

It's that time of year again. It's time to dive into my 10 league-winning hitters for 2026 fantasy baseball leagues. The goal here is to nail a hitter who provides significant profit at their current cost. It doesn't have to be someone who goes super late in drafts. It just has to be someone who exceeds expectations.

Last year, we nailed Eugenio Suarez, Trevor Story, and Drake Baldwin. We'll try to do better than 3 out of 10 this time around.

With that in mind, let's dive into my 10 league-winning hitters. We'll use NFBC ADP as of February 1 for our reference point.

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Yordan Alvarez, UT, Houston Astros

NFBC ADP: 35.73 (Min: 18, Max: 54)

Yordan Alvarez is coming off an injury-plagued season that limited him to only 199 plate appearances. The numbers were underwhelming by Alvarez's standards, featuring a .273/.367/.430 slash with six homers. This down year has given us an injury discount on one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

The consensus seems to believe that Alvarez has always been injured, but if you look at his career production, it's only last year where he really hurt you:

• 2021: 598 PA
• 2022: 561 PA
• 2023: 496 PA
• 2024: 635 PA
• 2025: 199 PA

Alvarez has a unique skill set: the ability to hit 35+ home runs while batting .300. Being an asset in both batting average and home runs is huge, even if he's only eligible at UT in most leagues.

Jackson Merrill, OF, San Diego Padres

NFBC ADP: 68.09 (Min: 39, Max: 94)

Jackson Merrill had a sophomore slump, hampered by injury, during which he slashed .264/.317/.457 with 16 homers and one steal in 483 plate appearances. But we can't lose sight of the fact that this is a hitter who put up a 130 wRC+ in his age-21 season. That kind of elite production at an early age can't be overlooked.

Now fully healthy, Merrill has a good chance to get back to 2024 form. Expect the steals to return, as he was limited to one due to injury. I wouldn't be surprised to see Merrill go 20-20 with a .270 batting average and strong counting stats. He was close to doing that as a rookie, so it's certainly not out of the question.

As with Alvarez, we're getting an injury discount here, which creates a buying opportunity.

Austin Riley, 3B, Atlanta Braves

NFBC ADP: 66.95 (Min: 41, Max: 89)

Austin Riley is coming off back-to-back injury-plagued years that limited him to fewer than 500 plate appearances. Before that, he hit 33+ homers in his previous three seasons. In each of those years, Riley put up a .270+ batting average.

That kind of batting average and power combination needs to be prioritized, especially at a thin position like third base.

Riley is fully healthy again, ready to get back on track in his age-29 season. There's no reason to worry about any decline, as Riley still put up an elite 15.2% barrel rate last season. Hitting in a strong lineup, we could see 100+ RBI once again.

Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers

NFBC ADP: 95.91 (Min: 56, Max: 131)

Corey Seager is similar to Alvarez in that he always seems to have a nagging injury, but when he's on the field, the numbers are always great. The former Dodger has put up a 138 wRC+ and 142 wRC+ in the last two seasons. If he can just give us a season with 600+ plate appearances, we could see him smash this price.

This is another hitter who can be an asset in both batting average and home runs, as he's hit .270+ in six of his last seven seasons, including 30+ homers in three of his last four.

We're getting a great deal on Seager, as the market has soured on him as he enters his age-32 season. He still put up a 15.3% barrel rate last year, so there's no reason to be concerned about potential decline just yet. Draft Seager without hesitation.

Oneil Cruz, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

NFBC ADP: 100.25 (Min: 72, Max: 140)

Oneil Cruz has loud tools, but he just hasn't had a true breakout yet. The 122.9 MPH maximum exit velocity with a 17.9% barrel rate are some of the best batted ball metrics in baseball. You also have to love the stolen base upside, as he swiped 38 last summer.

The problem is that Cruz has struggled against lefties, putting up an atrocious 18 wRC+ against them last year. But he's still only 27, so I'm not ready to give up on him just yet.

The Pirates have improved their lineup by bringing in Brandon Lowe, Marcell Ozuna, and Ryan O'Hearn. This could help out Cruz's counting stats. Even if he sits vs most lefties, Cruz has a chance to get you 25 homers with 40 steals. Expect a batting average closer to .250 than .200 this time around, as he hits the ball too hard to bat .200 once again.

Luis Robert Jr., OF, New York Mets

NFBC ADP: 112.21 (Min: 61, Max: 151)

I've been waiting for Luis Robert Jr. to get a change of scenery for a while now. It's clear that he needed to get on a contending team after years of playing for the rebuilding White Sox.

You have to love what Robert was able to do in the second half last year, slashing .298/.352/.456 while trimming his strikeout rate from 30.4% to 15.2%. Now playing in a lineup with Francisco Lindor and Juan Soto, there's a good chance that Robert is headed for a career year.

This is an outfielder with 20-40 upside, which is exactly what you want when you try to swing for the fences on a potential league-winner.

Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/OF, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP: 130.95 (Min: 80, Max: 168)

Ceddanne Rafaela is a great pick because he's an elite defender. That gold glove should keep his bat in the lineup consistently. He's also got an intriguing power-speed profile, including 16 homers and 20 steals last year.

I love the gains that Rafaela made at the plate last season, trimming his strikeout rate from 26.4% to 19.9% while improving his max exit velocity from 108.2 MPH to 112.1 MPH.

This is a great bet for 20-20 with the outside chance of 25-25. Being eligible at a thin position like 2B, along with OF, is another positive for Rafaela.

Ezequiel Tovar, SS, Colorado Rockies

NFBC ADP: 196.45 (Min: 123, Max: 294)

Ezequiel Tovar was limited to only 390 plate appearances due to injury last season. But this is a shortstop headed into his age-24 season, one year removed from 26 homers and six steals, playing in a hitter's haven like Coors Field.

This is one of the easiest bounce-back calls on the board. What's great is that you're often able to take Tovar past pick-200, which makes him a terrific value.

There's upside for 30 homers and 15 steals in this bat, as his career-high in homers (26) and steals (11) is pretty close to this number. It's worth noting that Tovar bumped up his max exit velocity from 110.6 MPH to 112.5 MPH last year. Perhaps there is room for growth in the power department. Wheels up for Tovar.

Mike Trout, OF, Los Angeles Angels

NFBC ADP: 179.23 (Min: 121, Max: 248)

Mike Trout surprisingly stayed relatively healthy last year, getting to 556 plate appearances, which was his highest since 2019. However, he showed serious signs of decline, with his strikeout rate jumping to 32.0%.

However, this is one of the best hitters of our generation, so we can't rule out a bounce-back. Trout still hits the ball hard, as highlighted by a 15.8% barrel rate.

Reports indicate that Trout will play more outfield this season, which leads me to believe that he's feeling healthier than usual. It wouldn't surprise me to see him steal 10+ bases to go along with 30-homer power. He just needs to stay healthy.

Wilyer Abreu, OF, Boston Red Sox

NFBC ADP: 219.59 (Min: 169, Max: 250)

Wilyer Abreu is one of my favorite targets in drafts this year. Not only are the per-plate-appearance numbers great (22 HR in 417 PA last season), but also the batted ball metrics (12.3% barrel rate).

What's even better is that Red Sox manager Alex Cora has publicly stated that Abreu will be an everyday player this year. We don't have to worry about him sitting vs lefties. With 550+ plate appearances coming, Abreu could get to 30 homers with 10 steals. That's exactly the type of upside you want to target at this stage of the draft.

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