RADIO
DFS Analyst Mark Wemken dissects his favorite WR vs CB match-ups to exploit for Week 3 of the NFL season. These wide receivers should be tournament and cash game targets based on matchups.
As the season rolls on, it becomes easier and easier to decide which corners are the ones I'm most likely to find success picking on. One of those CBs was discovered in last weeks article, and I will be featuring him again in the first matchup I break down this week.
Nothing is more important than match-up analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top match-ups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB match-ups for Week 3. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
WR/CB Matchups to Target
Juju Smith-Schuster Vs. TB CB M.J. Stewart
This has just as much to do with Juju Smith-Schuster smashing through the first two weeks as it does M.J. Stewart being an easy target. Before we discuss why Stewart is such an enticing matchup for Smith-Schuster, let's talk about what the 21 year-old has done so far in 2018.
Juju has accumulated 119 and 121 yards in his first two games, while catching a grand total of 18 passes on 27 targets. He actually saw a whopping 19 looks in last weeks shootout versus Kansas City. The second-year pro is absolutely smashing with usage-hog Le'Veon Bell off the field.
Interestingly enough, Smith-Schuster has actually drawn two difficult CB matchups to start the year. He's run against Briean Boddy-Calhoun and Kendall Fuller; both of which ranked towards the top of the league in slot coverage efficiency last year. Stewart is actually Smith-Schuster's first favorable matchup of the season, and I'm genuinely concerned for what Juju could do to this young nickel corner.
Stewart has allowed the most receptions and the sixth-most receiving yards when guarding the slot this season. Smith-Schuster has run nearly 88 percent of his routes from there since the start of the season. Smith-Schuster will cost $7200 to roster, but that's a much easier price to pay than his $8800 teammate, Antonio Brown.
Pivot - Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen is more of a price-point pivot off of Smith-Schuster than anything else. He's $100 more, and on paper he draws a much more difficult matchup against the Los Angeles Rams. This is actually one of the sneakier matchups to shoot out in Week 3 based on it's implied total of 48.
Keelan Cole Vs. TEN CB Malcolm Butler
Malcolm Butler has gone from Super Bowl hero in 2014, to being benched in the Super Bowl last year, to getting absolutely roasted through his first two weeks as a Tennessee Titan. Butler has surrendered a league-high 257 yards and three touchdowns in coverage this year.
I'm always wary of going right back to a player I was so high on the week before, but for Keelan Cole this week I'm willing to make an exception. Blake Bortles-Keelan Cole stacks were a lock in all formats for me last week the second Leonard Fournette was ruled out. While Fournette is expected to play, Cole's matchup is just too good to fade.
His seven catch-116 yard performance in Week 2 has driven his DK price all the way up to $5600, which is about $700 higher than I'd like it to be. With that being said, I'm going to pick on Butler until he stops allowing monstrous chunks of yardage every time he's targeted.
One last thing: as I hinted at earlier, if Fournette is ruled out, Bortles and Cole become an immediate lock in all formats. He's currently listed as questionable but is expected to play.
Pivot - Leonard Fournette
I'm leveraging my Cole exposure with plenty of Fournette shares. It's fair to assume that if Bortles and Cole don't smash again, then Fournette probably did. He's a bit more expensive than Cole's price-point, but $6900 for Fournette is still bargain without question. One last time, if he's inactive for any reason just lock Cole and Bortles into your lineups and move on.
T.Y. Hilton Vs. PHI CB Ronald Darby
T.Y. Hilton was in a smash-spot before I researched this matchup. Both tight end Jack Doyle and running back Marlon Mack were ruled out for Week 3, meaning this entire offense should flow through Andrew Luck and Hilton.
Like several other games on the Sunday slate in Week 3, this is another game that could very sneakily shoot out. Philadelphia will be missing their top-two running backs in Jay Ajayi and Darren Sproles, and Corey Clement will be at the very least limited with a quad injury. I expect the offense to flow through returning quarterback Carson Wentz and his two best targets, Zach Ertz and Nelson Agholor.
This game could be loaded with passing, and Hilton should be a lock for at least 10 targets. Hilton has actually seen 11 targets (and scored a touchdown) in each of his first two games.
Finally, Hilton will run the majority of his routes against Ronald Darby, who has allowed the most receptions and the fourth-most receiving yards in coverage this year. No CB in the NFL has been thrown at more than Darby.
Hilton is in a spot to return high-end WR1 value at just $6700. He is a lock in all formats.
Pivot - Eric Ebron
Eric Ebron is a great cash-game option with Doyle out, and I could even get behind rostering both him and Hilton. If you elect to go that route, complete the stack with Luck as your QB. If both Ebron and Hilton smash, or at the very least hit value on a fantasy points per dollar aspect, it's fair to assume Luck crushed as well.
Emmanuel Sanders Vs. BLT CB Tavon Young
After a colossal 10 catch-135 yard performance in Week 1, Sanders only saw four targets in Week 2. He made the most of them, however, catching all four for 96 yards. Sanders is posting remarkable efficiency as well, catching 93.3 percent of his 15 total targets this season.
Up next is a matchup with Tavon Young, who was absolutely torched by Tyler Boyd in Week 2. Young has allowed seven catches for 83 yards while patrolling the slot this season, and he's the only CB in the league that's allowed more than one touchdown from there. Sanders is playing some of the best football of his career right now, so he is a great player to ride until he inevitably cools off.
Sanders is perfectly-priced at $6400 on DK, making him a great player to stack with Hilton for some extra wiggle room to pay up at running back.
Pivot - Demaryius Thomas
Full disclosure, I made the mistake of trusting Demaryius Thomas in cash games last week. I felt he was underpriced and in line for some tremendous volume. He actually saw 11 targets, but he converted on just five of them for 18 yards. He's $400 cheaper this week, and the matchup isn't ideal. I prefer Thomas as a low-owned tournament play, while Sanders can be rostered in all contests.
