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Mike Barner discusses six well-known fantasy baseball hitters who are off to slow starts in 2024. He looks at whether it's time to drop or hold these players.
Now that we’ve reached the middle of May, we have a noteworthy sample size across baseball. There is still time for struggling hitters to turn things around, but that doesn’t mean that all of them will.
There are several well-known hitters who are off to slow starts. Deciding what to do with them in fantasy baseball can be difficult based on the draft capital that fantasy managers had to spend to acquire them.
Let’s highlight some struggling stars and decide whether they should still be held onto in most fantasy leagues, or if it’s time to cut bait and move on.
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Paul Goldschmidt, St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt showed signs of decline last season, finishing with a .268 batting average, .350 wOBA, and a .179 ISO. That marked his worst batting average and wOBA since 2019 and the worst ISO of any full season of his career.
Things have been even worse for Goldschmidt this year with him entering Tuesday batting .199 with a .259 wOBA. He has only hit three home runs, leaving him with a .079 ISO. The biggest area of concern is his 31.6 percent strikeout rate, which is on pace to be the highest mark of his career. It also puts him on pace to have his strikeout rate increase for the third straight season.
Goldschmidt turns 37 years old in September, so we could be looking at a case of a player declining with age. It’s difficult to cut a player with his type of pedigree, but it’s getting late early, as Yogi Berra would say. If Goldschmidt doesn’t show signs of turning things around in the next couple of weeks, it might be time to move on from him in shallower leagues.
Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals
Arenado hasn’t been nearly as bad as his teammate Goldschmidt, batting .268 with a .317 wOBA. Still, he has launched just three home runs on his way to a .118 ISO entering Tuesday. His current 2.3 percent barrel rate and 28.9 percent hard-hit rate would be the lowest marks of his career.
Nolan Arenado puts the #STLCards on the board with a solo homer.
Watch on Bally Sports, https://t.co/qndToVtUKF and the Bally Sports app. pic.twitter.com/UKrQca3CmC
— Bally Sports Midwest (@BallySportsMW) May 14, 2024
Unlike Goldschmidt, Arenado isn’t swinging and missing more. His strikeout rate is only 16.4 percent. He has also showed a little more power lately, posting a .452 slugging percentage over his last eight games. Arenado is much less of a concern than Goldschmidt, so don’t think about dropping him.
Alex Bregman, Houston Astros
Bregman has been atrocious, posting a .278 wOBA and a .109 ISO for the Astros. The good news is that he’s still not striking out much, given his 12.3 percent strikeout rate that is actually a percentage point lower than his career mark.
While his 3.1 percent barrel rate isn’t great, Bregman only has a 5.5 percent barrel rate for his career. When he hit 41 home runs in 2019, he only had a 4.6 percent barrel rate.
Bregman has already started to show signs of emerging from his slump. Entering Tuesday, he was 8-for-20 (.400) with two home runs and two doubles over his last five games. We might simply be looking at a player who is pressing in a contract season. As he settles in and adjusts, his numbers should improve significantly.
Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays
Of all the players on this list, Bichette might be the easiest one to recommend sticking with. Yes, he’s only batting .218 with a .263 wOBA. He has also hit just two home runs. However, he has a career .294 batting average and has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last three seasons.
Bichette only has a .250 BABIP this season, which is well below his career mark of .342. Some of that should be attributed to his 2.5 percent barrel rate, which is a mark that he will need to improve to get back to his career numbers.
"Atta boy!" 🥰
Bo Bichette gets the Blue Jays on the board while José Berríos is being interviewed 👏 pic.twitter.com/5MbhRHgE9x
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) May 11, 2024
Over his last five games entering Tuesday, Bichette is 8-for-20 (.400) with a home run. He’s not striking out much this season and he’s only 26 years old. He’s going to turn things around sooner rather than later.
George Springer, Toronto Blue Jays
Springer was a valuable fantasy option last year, finishing with 21 home runs and 20 stolen bases. He appeared in 154 games, which was the second most for a season in his career. That likely helped with his counting stats. His .405 slugging percentage was actually the lowest mark of his career.
Springer has seen his power number evaporate this season, leaving him to slug .290. He does have six stolen bases and has been unlucky with his .228 BABIP. Part of that low BABIP might be attributed to his 87.3 mph average exit velocity, which is nearly 2 mph lower than his career mark.
For those desperate for stolen bases, it’s not time to drop Springer yet. However, he’s had injury issues throughout his career and will turn 35 years old in September. He’s not a must-roster player in shallow leagues.
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are a trainwreck. They have scored the fewest runs and have the worst OPS in baseball. Jimenez is one of the few feared hitters that they have left in their lineup, but even he is struggling. He’s only batting .208 with a .610 OPS. For his career, he has hit .271 with a .799 OPS.
As has been the case throughout his career, Jimenez has already missed time this season because of injury. He has never played in more than 122 games in a season during his career.
The problem with batting within the White Sox’s lineup is that even a good hitter isn’t going to have an opportunity to produce many counting stats. Over his 28 games this year, Jimenez has just 11 RBI. Better days are likely on the horizon, but an injury-prone player in a bad lineup is not someone who is a must-roster in shallower leagues.
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