Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low? (Week 10)

May 28, 2024

Mike Barner discusses five well-known fantasy baseball hitters who are off to slow starts in 2024. He looks at whether it's time to drop or hold these players.

With Memorial Day in our rearview mirror, it’s time to look more seriously at fantasy baseball standings. There is still time to make up ground, but making key roster moves now might be necessary.

Several well-known hitters are off to slow starts. Deciding what to do with them can be difficult, based on the draft capital that fantasy managers had to spend to acquire them.

Let’s highlight some struggling stars and decide whether they should still be held onto in most fantasy leagues, or if it’s time to cut bait and move on.

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Francisco Lindor, SS - New York Mets

Lindor is coming off an excellent 2023 campaign in which he posted a .216 ISO and a .346 wOBA. His 31 home runs were the most he had hit in a season since 2019. He also stole 31 bases, which was the first time that he stole at least 30 bases in a season in his career.

This season has been a disappointment with Lindor recording a .157 ISO and a .287 wOBA. His .210 batting average is on pace to be the lowest mark of his career. He does have seven home runs and six stolen bases, and his supporting stats indicate that he has been a bit unlucky.

Francisco Lindor leads off with a double! pic.twitter.com/NztsiBQf3C

— SNY (@SNYtv) May 25, 2024

Lindor has a .222 BABIP this season, compared to his career mark of .289. His 16.3 percent strikeout rate is actually down compared to last season, while his 44.3 percent hard-hit rate and 9.2 percent barrel rate are higher than his career marks. As frustrating as he has been, it looks like better days will be on the horizon.

Gleyber Torres, 2B - New York Yankees

Torres has put himself in a difficult position with his .099 ISO and .284 wOBA. This is a contract year for him, so he needs to perform if he wants to cash in. One of the big reasons for his improvement last season was that he lowered his strikeout rate to 14.6 percent. He has a 20.6 percent strikeout rate for his career and a 24.7 percent strikeout rate this season. Another area of concern for Torres is that his hard-hit rate has declined to 34.9 percent.

Torres has shown signs of heating up at the plate, hitting 15-for-52 (.288) with three home runs and four doubles over his last 14 games. However, he has just a .333 OBP during that span, to go along with a 28.1 percent strikeout rate. While he’s worth holding onto in 12 and 15-team leagues, those who play in 10-team leagues might be able to find a better option at second base on the waiver wire.

Nick Castellanos, OF - Philadelphia Phillies

It seems like Castellanos has been alternating good and bad seasons. He followed up his .267 ISO and .391 wOBA in 2021 with a .126 ISO and .304 wOBA in 2022. He then bounced back with a .204 ISO and .335 wOBA last season. However, the start of 2024 has been a disaster with him recording a .111 ISO and a .259 wOBA.

Castellanos’ success can be tracked to his quality of contact. In 2021 and 2023, he had a barrel rate of at least 10.3 percent and a hard-hit rate of at least 43.0 percent. In 2022, he had a 6.6 percent barrel rate and a 34.6 percent hard-hit rate. This year, he has a 6.4 percent barrel rate and a 36.9 percent hard-hit rate.

Nick Castellanos finally hits his first home run of the season at CBP
pic.twitter.com/QC1TI1arc0

— John Clark (@JClarkNBCS) May 23, 2024

For those in desperate need of power, it’s worth holding onto Castellanos. If he gets hot, he can rack up homers in bunches. However, if he continues to struggle with his quality of contact, he won’t be a must-roster player for much longer.

Dansby Swanson, SS - Chicago Cubs

The good thing about Swanson is that he has provided consistent power. In each of the last three full seasons, he has hit at least 22 home runs. However, he hit below .250 and had a wOBA of .325 or lower in two of those campaigns.

Swanson has seen a bit of a power decline this season with his .120 ISO, but his biggest drag on fantasy managers has been his .213 batting average. His wOBA is all the way down to .277, while his strikeout rate of 27.7 percent is on pace to be the highest mark of his career.

The silver lining with Swanson is that he has a 10.5 percent barrel rate and a 41.0 percent hard-hit rate. His biggest problem might be his 52.4 percent groundball rate. For his career, that mark sits at 41.9 percent. His batting average should increase some as the season moves along, but if he keeps pounding the ball into the ground at his current rate, he might not hit enough home runs to justify rostering him in shallow leagues.

Cedric Mullins, OF - Baltimore Orioles

Mullins had a breakout 2021 season in which he compiled 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases to go along with a .372 wOBA. He then stole 34 bases in 2022, although he hit just 16 home runs while compiling a .315 wOBA. Injuries limited him to 116 games last season, but he still chipped in 15 home runs and 19 stolen bases.

The biggest issue with Mullins has been his continued inability to get on base. He is currently batting .195 with a .257 wOBA. He is on pace to see his batting average and wOBA decline for the third straight season.

Even with his struggles, he has six home runs and 11 stolen bases. His quality of contact is in line with his career marks so he might be a bit unlucky with his .224 BABIP. For his career, he has a .291 BABIP. If he starts to approach that as the season moves along, he could blow by 30 stolen bases again. That makes him worth holding onto in most formats.

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