RADIO
It's Week Four of the NFL season but this happens to be my debut article at RotoBaller! This week I will roll out my cash and GPP rankings at each position in order to help you build some winning DFS lineups on DraftKings.
Cash game rankings are based on safety - on reliable floors for production, while my GPP rankings are all about upside and sometimes reduced rostership that will allow us to gain some leverage on the field in tournaments.
There are quite a few great plays available on DK for Week 4, but my goal is to create a hierarchy of plays so you know who to prioritize when buidling your lineups! Also, be sure to check out all of our other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big!
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DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Russell Wilson (Denver Broncos - $5800)
In Week 1 the Chicago Bears surrendered 3 TD passes to Jordan Love. In Week 2 they allowed just 1 TD pass to Baker Mayfield, but he also threw for 317 yards and scored over 21 DraftKings points. Last week they allowed 3 TD passes and over 25 DraftKings points to Patrick Mahomes in about three quarters of work.
This week Russell Wilson is the lucky quarterback who gets to face this atrocity of a defense. Wilson has been significantly better in 2023 under the guidance of Sean Payton than he was last year, throwing for over 300 yards each of the last two weeks. He’s also thrown 32 or more passes in every game this year, so the volume will be there to support him as well.
At only $5800, Wilson won’t need to do too much to give you a three-times return on his price point (17.4 DraftKings points). It’s less than ideal that he’s had more than one rushing attempt only one time this year, but that’s not necessary against a team like the Bears.
2. Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts - $6700)
3. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers - $7800)
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Quarterbacks
1. Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers - $7800)
It’s hard not to love the volume that Justin Herbert is producing so far in 2023. Austin Ekeler is a huge part of this offense when he’s healthy, but with him out, it’s been the Justin Herbert show. Herbie has 40 or more attempts in back-to-back games without Ekeler in the lineup; a situation that he’s going to find himself in once again this weekend.
Along with those 40 or more attempts, Herbert has also thrown for more than 300 yards in both of those games. While it’s not ideal for the Chargers to be without two of their top three offensive threats (Mike Williams is out for the season), it does make Los Angeles a lot easier to stack. Keenan Allen is the top option, but the second man in a Chargers stack would be a value option in either Joshua Palmer ($4000) or Quentin Johnston ($3700).
The 100th passing TD of Justin Herbert’s career goes to Joshua Palmer.🔥#BoltUp pic.twitter.com/rWjQbu0nO6
— Chargers Central (@BoltCentral) September 24, 2023
These cheaper wide receiver options will allow your lineups to add one more high-priced secondary stack. Pairings like Chris Olave/Chris Godwin, Alexander Mattison/Adam Thielen, Kyren Williams/Michael Pittman Jr., Raheem Mostert/Gabriel Davis, or James Conner/George Kittle are examples of reasonable secondary stacks that fit with a Charger/Raiders stack.
2. Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals - $6500)
3. Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills - $8200)
Others in consideration CJ Stroud, Justin Fields, Jalen Hurts, Tua Tagovailoa, Russell Wilson
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Running Backs
1. Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings - $5800)
It is mind-boggling that people are scared to use Alexander Mattison in cash this weekend. While it’s true that he has had his issues with the dropsies, he’s also a volume monster with little competition for his job and an insane matchup. Yes, the team traded for Cam Akers but they don’t have anything invested in him as the trade was merely a sixth-round draft pick swap in the future. That’s not a haul that screams “commitment.”
Mattison saw 20 carries last weekend in a game that was close the entire way, but more impressively he’s averaging nearly six targets per week despite his back-breaking drops. The team seems to still have confidence in him and that makes him a very desirable option at just $5800.
It's kinda wild that Alexander Mattison didn't score a touchdown against the Chargers pic.twitter.com/BZqFEyGnGV
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) September 26, 2023
For their part, the Panthers have been awful against the run this year. They allowed Tyler Allgeier, Bijan Robinson, and the Falcons to rush for 130 yards in Week 1 and they’ve only gotten worse since. In Week 2 they allowed a broken Saints backfield to rush for 134 yards and multiple rushing TDs. Last weekend it was Kenneth Walker’s turn, as he approached 100 rushing yards with a pair of TDs. Mattison is the same quality of rusher as all of those other backs and should be in for a big week against an overmatched Panthers defensive line.
2. D’Andre Swift (Philadelphia Eagles - $5700)
3. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers - $9200)
Others in consideration: Kyren Williams, Zack Moss
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Running Backs
1. Christian McCaffrey (San Francisco 49ers - $9200)
One of the best strategies for success in GPPs is to do the opposite of what the field is doing. This weekend looks to be one where the field will be paying up at wide receiver, so you can gain leverage by paying up at RB. Christian McCaffrey is easily the best pay-up RB this weekend. He’s not only got a great matchup at home against the Cardinals, but he’s the best inside-the-five runner in the game and a massive threat in the passing game.
Deebo Samuel was limited in practice on Friday after being a non-participant on Wednesday and Thursday. If he were to miss the game or be limited, then that takes more threat away from McCaffrey. In all fairness, McCaffrey hasn’t been threatened this year as he’s been on the field for over 90% of the 49ers snaps this year. After being eased into the offense a little bit last year, it looks as if he’s now back to the same role he played in Carolina.
Few players in the league are as safe a bet for over 20 DraftKings points as McCaffrey, and he’s got the highest ceiling of any RB on this weekend’s slate. The proof is in the pudding with McCaffrey, as he’s scored 22.9 DraftKings points or more every week this year without having what would be considered a monster game. A high floor, plus a high ceiling, plus low ownership, plus a strong matchup equals a player you will want to get exposure to in GPPs. He’s a great complement to a less expensive stack like Houston, Pittsburgh, the Rams, or Denver.
2. Alvin Kamara (New Orleans Saints - $6100)
3. Alexander Mattison (Minnesota Vikings - $5800)
Others in consideration: D’Andre Swift, Joe Mixon, James Cook, James Conner, Raheem Mostert, Najee Harris
DraftKings NFL DFS Cash Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Joshua Palmer (Los Angeles Chargers - $4000)
This week’s DraftKings pricing came out before the news that Mike Williams would miss the rest of the 2023 season. Due to that, Joshua Palmer is wildly mispriced at just $4000. At that price, and in this offense, Palmer is a screaming value. Widely-owned players don’t need to be avoided in cash games, and Palmer will likely be the most widely rostered player of all in Week 4.
If Palmer was “bad chalk”, then maybe it’d be advisable to look in the direction of Adam Thielen or Tank Dell, but Palmer is anything but bad. He’s been targeted far more than was expected during draft season, with 12 total targets over the last two weeks. Last year he started in place of both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams when they were injured, so the role won’t be too big for him.
With the kind of volume that can be expected from the Chargers offense, Palmer likely sees another afternoon with six or more passes thrown his way. That’s plenty of value for a player priced like he is. Being so inexpensive, using Palmer as one of your cash game wide receivers allows you to spend up for another high-volume player or to add some luxury to your lineup with a pricey defense like Philadelphia or San Francisco.
2. Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals - $7800)
3. Stefon Diggs (Buffalo Bills - $8100)
Others in consideration: Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Puka Nacua, Courtland Sutton, Tutu Atwell, Tank Dell, Adam Thielen
DraftKings NFL DFS GPP Rankings - Wide Receivers
1. Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos - $5300)
Even if the Broncos had a tough matchup, a price point of $5300 is just too cheap for Courtland Sutton. He’s quietly become Russell Wilson’s favorite target, seeing more passes come his way since Jerry Jeudy has returned to the lineup. Over the last two weeks, he’s had 18 total targets and he’s the favorite red zone option with a touchdown catch in two of the first three weeks of the season.
Russell Wilson to Courtland Sutton gets Denver on the board #BroncosCountry #FPC #NFL #NFLTwitter
— Full Press NFL (@FullPressNFL) September 24, 2023
The Chicago Bears are one of the most fantasy-friendly defenses in the entire NFL, allowing an average of 31 real points per game. They’ve also gotten crushed via the pass, with 300 or more yards allowed to opposing quarterbacks in each of the last two weeks. This is a matchup that’s going to be exploited all year long, but there’s the bonus of doing it on the cheap with Denver this weekend.
As a result of their low prices, it’s possible to load up at other positions with a Broncos stack. One way to get even cheaper with a Denver stack is to use Marvin Mims rather than Jerry Jeudy as your second wide receiver. Mims doesn’t get on the field a ton (yet), but when he’s gotten snaps he’s made them count with multiple long catches, a big touchdown reception, and a return touchdown. A stack of Russell Wilson, Cortland Sutton, and Mavin Mims opens up the possibility of getting Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, or Ja’Marr Chase involved as a secondary stack.
2. Keenan Allen (Los Angeles Chargers - $7900)
3. Ja’Marr Chase (Cincinnati Bengals - $7800)
Others in consideration: Justin Jefferson, Tyreek Hill, AJ Brown, Chris Olave, Puka Nacua, Brandon Aiyuk, Amari Cooper, Tutu Atwell, Tank Dell, Jakobi Meyers, Adam Thielen, Calvin Austin, Quentin Johnston
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - Tight Ends
1. George Kittle (San Francisco 49ers - $5100)
George Kittle has yet to explode this year, but he’s had games of six and nine targets, so it’s not like Brock Purdy isn’t looking for him. Kittle could earn even more looks with Juaun Johnson banged up and Deebo Samuel possibly missing this weekend’s game. It’s easy to forget, but at the end of last season Brock Purdy was looking for Kittle a lot and he was able to put up some monster weeks.
Kittle may be a little pricey for cash if you’re looking to spend less than $4000 on the tight end position, but it’s not like Kittle is expensive for an elite tight end at just $5100. With Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, and Darren Waller all absent from this slate, there isn’t an elite option worth spending up for. Both TJ Hockenson and Mark Andrews have the same ceiling and floor as Kittle (maybe it could be argued that Hockenson’s floor is higher), but you get Kittle for cheaper than both.
Brock Purdy’s layered throw to George Kittle 🎯 pic.twitter.com/ihy5YFHOuC
— Coach Yac 🗣 (@Coach_Yac) September 23, 2023
Kittle may be positioned better as a GPP option this weekend as people will be looking to spend down at tight end so they can fit in an extra high-priced wide receiver. Remember that the best way to be contrarian is to do the opposite of what the field is doing. Another thing the field should be doing is using Brandon Aiyuk if Deebo Samuel is out. This presents itself as another way to get a little bit different with your lineup while saving a good bit of cap space ($1100 in the case of using Kittle over Aiyuk).
2. Pat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers - $3400)
3. Chig Okonkwo (Tennessee Titans - $3100)
Others in consideration: TJ Hockenson, Hayden Hurst, Kylen Granson, John Bates
DraftKings NFL DFS Rankings - D/ST
1. Cleveland Browns ($2800)
Are the Baltimore Ravens such a good offense this year that we should be scared off of using a great defense against them? Lamar Jackson got rattled by the Colts last weekend. It’s not just good defenses that rattle Jackson, as the Texans forced him to fumble twice and intercepted him once. He’s already fumbled four times, and lost two of them, in this early part of the season. Cleveland is anything but a typical defense with Myles Garrett terrorizing opposing quarterbacks.
The number one attribute to look for in defenses is the ability to get at the quarterback. When a defense can put pressure on the quarterback it can lead to sacks, rushed passes, and jittery feet. Cleveland is one of the best at getting to the quarterback. The Browns also don’t allow many offenses to move with the ball, with only one opponent totaling 250 yards. Cleveland has allowed an average of fewer than seven points per game and has only allowed one quarterback to throw for more than 68 yards.
The Ravens can score points, sure, but that’s not something to consider when choosing a fantasy defense. Volume is good for a fantasy defense, and the Ravens drop back and run around the backfield enough to justify using a defense against them. When that defense happens to be one of the best in the NFL and priced for less than $3000, they become a premium cash and GPP play.
2. Philadelphia Eagles ($4100)
3. Indianapolis Colts ($2900)
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