RADIO
The first round of the fantasy playoffs is off to a roaring start unless you were relying on any Chargers not named Joshua Palmer. Or you had the unfortunate luck of matching up against Davante Adams, Zamir White, or the Raiders defense. Half of those names wouldn't even be mentioned as legitimate options on most weeks.
With all those points put on the board, the likes of Tre Tucker are going to be outscoring players rostered across the board, some of which may be listed in this column.
As you prepare to set your lineups for a victorious Week 15, potential fantasy landmines may need to find a spot on your bench. Below are my 10 fantasy football busts for Week 15 of the NFL season.
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Tua Tagovailoa vs. New York Jets
Before we dive too much into the explanation, know that Tyreek Hill's injury only reinforces this selection. It's not the sole reason Tagovailoa is listed here.
Just a few weeks ago on Black Friday, the Dolphins dropped 34 points on these same New York Jets in East Rutherford. Yet, Tagovailoa scored just 9.8 fantasy points with two interceptions, 243 yards, and one touchdown. A defensive score and two Raheem Mostert touchdowns accounted for the rest of the scoring. It was almost the exact script on Monday against the Titans. Tagovailoa did not have a touchdown himself, but Mostert claimed two and the defense another.
With the abundance of injuries across the offensive line (the entire starting line from Week 1 and their top backup guard is either on the injury report for this week or on injured reserve), the offense is not humming along as it did early in the season. Mike McDaniel's system is built on precise timing. When one cog is missing, everything gets thrown off.
The best way to beat the Jets is to run right at them. Cornerbacks Sauce Gardner and D.J. Reed do a phenomenal job locking down opposing wide receivers. Yes, both Hill and Jaylen Waddle topped 100 yards in Week 12. The secondary still allows the fewest fantasy points to wide receivers by a wide margin. If one is hampered (a.k.a Hill), Waddle will receive all of the focus. Leaning on the running game again will be the safest way to win the game.
One of two things could happen in this game. Either Zach Wilson performs like he did in Week 14 (one of the best games in his young career) and the Jets control the ball more than the 24 minutes they had it on Black Friday or he'll slip back into his old habits and Miami will score on defense and build a huge lead. Either way, it takes the ball out of Tagovailoa's hands more often than fantasy managers prefer.
Jared Goff vs. Denver
Jared Goff is at home, so that makes him a good play this week, right? Right?!
Generally, that's been the rule of thumb for the signal-caller in the Motor City. Without any weather effects, he's throwing twice as many touchdowns as interceptions, a completion percentage pushing 70, 15 more yards per game, and he's been sacked seven fewer times at Ford Field.
| Stat | Home (6 games) | Away (7 games) |
| Yards (Per Game) | 273.7 | 258.1 |
| Completion Percentage | 69.81% | 64.43% |
| Touchdowns | 12 (plus 2 rushing) | 9 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 4 |
| Sacks | 9 | 16 |
It's mostly Goff's play as of late with a sprinkle of the matchup against Denver to blame. In his two December games, his yards per game plummeted to 187 and he's tossed three touchdowns to two interceptions. Turnovers also plagued Goff in the final game in November (three lost fumbles against Green Bay) but he salvaged his fantasy numbers as the Lions fell into a deep hole on the scoreboard.
No quarterback has scored more than 18.3 fantasy points against the Denver defense since Week 5. That list includes Patrick Mahomes (twice), Josh Allen, C.J. Stroud, and Jordan Love (and Joshua Dobbs and Dorian Thompson-Robinson). On the other end, the defense still allows the most rushing yards in the league to running backs (124.7 per game). With starting offensive linemen Taylor Decker and Frank Ragnow getting healthier, coach Dan Campbell could rely on his tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to get the Lions' season back on track.
Kenneth Walker III vs. Philadelphia
Zach Charbonnet is here to stay. And Zach Charbonnet has cemented his role on third downs, playing nine of 11 snaps last week. In total, the rookie had two fewer touches than the starter, Kenneth Walker, immediately capping the latter's upside. They combined for 65 rushing yards (21 for Walker) against a stout San Francisco defense.
Now, they face an even tougher run defense, the Philadelphia Eagles. Similar to trying to avoid the Jets' secondary, the Eagles' defensive line has been consistently superior all season long. Their only true blemish was against Christian McCaffrey. Don't expect much running room for Walker, and if you are hoping for the ex-Michigan State Spartan to score through the air, Philadelphia hasn't allowed a single back to find the end zone in that fashion.
If Drew Lock is forced to start another game for Geno Smith (groin), then the Eagles can focus even more on stopping the run. Regardless, I'm trying to avoid both members of the Seattle backfield.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire at New England
It's the fantasy playoffs and we're discussing Clyde Edwards-Helaire as an option. Wild.
The former first-round pick has delivered disappointment after disappointment (to the point where he went in the 25th round of a dynasty startup I did this summer). But the opportunity is being ripped wide open once again for CEH.
Unfortunately, he's not getting all of the production vacated by the injured Isiah Pacheco. Jerick McKinnon played 45 percent of the snaps compared to 48 percent for Edwards-Helaire. McKinnon also is on the field for the high-value touches (i.e. the red zone and third down). Edwards-Helaire is just the discount Pacheco.
Their Week 15 opponent, the New England Patriots, has held the likes of Jonathan Taylor, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Najee Harris, and Jaylen Warren to 14.5, 6.2, 4.7, 7.8, and 8.0 points, respectively. Taylor totaled 75 yards but escaped with a one-yard touchdown (the only score of the game). That's not a lot of fantasy points to go around, especially for someone like Edwards-Helaire who has a reliable backfield companion.
Javonte Williams at Detroit
The Detroit Lions are going through some things right now. They've dropped two of the last three, barely squeaked by Chicago the first time, and got trounced by two division opponents. But they're still doing at least one thing well and that's stopping the run.
| Team | RB Attempts | RB Yards | YPC |
| San Francisco | 194 | 743 | 3.83 |
| Detroit | 229 | 802 | 3.50 |
| Jacksonville | 233 | 858 | 3.68 |
| Chicago | 244 | 897 | 3.67 |
| Philadelphia | 234 | 904 | 3.86 |
Since their bye week in Week 9, Austin Ekeler has garnered the most rushing yards (67) against this front seven. Khalil Herbert, AJ Dillon, Alvin Kamara, and D'Onta Foreman were all held to 51 yards or fewer. Kamara did score twice, but that's two of eight rushing touchdowns the Lions have surrendered. They've allowed zero to running backs through the air.
Javonte Williams has the 14th-most attempts among all NFL running backs but ranks 32nd in yards per carry. That's behind the likes of Najee Harris and Alexander Mattison, who have the bust label stamped all over them. His first rushing touchdown came last week. The other two scores were in the passing game, which as stated above, the Lions have not allowed yet this season.
Russell Wilson is a popular streaming quarterback option this week, and for good reason. The Broncos will need a strong performance out of the passing game to defeat the Lions at Ford Field.
Drake London at Carolina
"I used to pray for times like this."
Arthur Smith mimics Meek Mill when he sees the Carolina Panthers are next up on the schedule. Bijan Robinson rushing. Tyler Allgeier rushing. Cordarrelle Patterson rushing. All rushing, all the time.
Unfortunately for Drake London, the game plan is going to call for much less passing this time around. Fresh off career-high marks in both receptions (10) and yards (172) against Tampa Bay, I'd be surprised for London to capture half of those catches in Week 15. The Panthers allow 4.5 yards per carry to running backs this season and the fourth-most rushing yards total to the position. If Smith had his way, he'd run the ball 90% of the time. There's little stopping him from dialing up all the dives, counters, draws, pitches, and options he can dream up.
Let's take a trip back to Week 1 of the 2023 campaign. The Falcons hosted the Panthers in Bryce Young's NFL debut. Desmond Ridder dropped back to pass just 22 times, successfully converting 15 of them. London saw one target and was not lucky enough to earn one of Ridder's good attempts. Ridder himself caught more passes (1 for -1 yard) than his top wide receiver! Smith only cared that the team won (which, in his defense, is the only thing any coach cares about).
"We don't care. Drake London doesn't care. All we care about is 1-0." - Arthur Smith after Week 1
Because of their poor run defense, the Panthers see the second-fewest targets to wideouts. It's not a recipe that's leading to wins, clearly, so teams will continue to pound the rock.
Calvin Ridley vs. Baltimore
The fantasy community has been buzzing about how maddeningly inconsistent Gabe Davis is, but Calvin Ridley is nearly as infuriating. Because there's no rhyme or reason (...maybe?) to his successful or middling games. There is one theory, though, that doesn't make a lot of sense, but it does have a strong hit rate.
Ridley needs all of the major receiving weapons to be healthy to have a big game. In Week 1, all four (Ridley, Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, Evan Engram) were healthy, but Kirk played just 60 percent of the snaps and was limited to one catch. In the other three games that he's topped 15 PPR points, the remaining trio were all active. Jones has missed a significant chunk of time with knee issues. Kirk essentially missed the last two games (he was injured on the first snap against Cincinnati) and Ridley caught eight of his 21 targets for 79 yards combined.
Whether that theory actually makes sense or not, we can move on to something that can be easily measured. The Ravens allow just 180 passing yards per game, the fourth-best in the league. Receivers can rack up catches and yards at a decent clip against this secondary, but they surrender the second-fewest touchdowns (eight) to the position.
Trevor Lawrence missed a lot of throws that he usually makes in Week 14, and the ankle sprain may have been a factor. Consider Ridley a low-end WR3 with a wide range of outcomes, including decent bust potential.
George Pickens at Indianapolis
Two things are true about George Pickens: He did not break out in 2023 and he won't do so with Mitch Trubisky leading the offense.
Last week, the Steelers' coaching staff refused to take the training wheels off for the veteran backup quarterback. Despite playing from behind for the majority of the game, Pickens did not receive a single target downfield (you know, the strength of his game). In total, he finished the game with just 19 air yards. Five catches would have been respectable if any of those went even 10 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Diontae Johnson has (and will be) Trubisky's preferred target, especially in the red zone, whenever the quarterback is accurate enough to string together a drive and enter the 20.
While it's true that the Indianapolis defense surrenders over 25 points per game (fourth-highest), the unit has been oddly strong against wide receivers in recent weeks. They've allowed the fifth-fewest yards to wideouts since Week 10, which is vital for Pickens in this matchup since managers can't bank on a touchdown to boost his numbers.
Tee Higgins vs. Minnesota
Jake Browning throws just 1.2 deep passes per game and boasts a catchable pass rate of 92.2% (best among qualified candidates). Those two stats coincide because the Bengals prefer that the inexperienced backup plays it safe. The game plan, when they aren't running the football, is calling a lot of screens for running backs and Ja'Marr Chase. That is leaving Tee Higgins to block, or maybe, just maybe, be the recipient of that lone deep ball. Thankfully, that was the case in Week 14, which helped avoid a complete disaster of a Sunday.
In the two games Higgins has played with Browning, the former Clemson Tiger has earned seven targets, catching five of them for 108 yards. The small sample size average of 2.5 catches for 54 yards is not ideal for a WR2 or WR3.
Against Indianapolis, the Bengals dialed up 32 run plays compared to 25 passes. Needing to pass in the second half to play catch up against Jacksonville, Cincinnati still rode Joe Mixon and Co. to 31 carries. The run will be established and it's proving to be a winning recipe. Higgins, and to a lesser extent Chase, are hard to trust against a Minnesota defense allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers over the last four weeks.
Cole Kmet at Cleveland
The Cleveland Browns still allow the fewest yards and receptions to opposing tight ends, but their marks sure took a hit when Evan Engram came to town. I'll admit, I didn't see Engram hitting career highs in catches (11) and yards (162) against the defense that shut down nearly every other tight end (other than Mark Andrews). Granted, I also didn't foresee Trevor Lawrence suiting up six days after suffering a high-ankle sprain, but that's neither here nor there.
Back to who this blurb is actually about, Cole Kmet. The TE6 has put together peaks and valleys in his fourth year in Chicago. Two of his three best games, however, came with Justin Fields on the sideline. Since his return, Kmet is averaging 9.3 PPR fantasy points per game. That's not going to burn fantasy managers but it also won't propel them to playoff victories.
I'll take the 12-game sample size of the Browns shutting down tight ends rather than the two outliers and shy away from Kmet this week.
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