RADIO
It's F5 season folks, as we are just seven days away from the Trade Deadline. We just saw the first domino fall yesterday in Nelson Cruz, who heads to Tampa Bay after being acquired from the Twins for a couple prospects. Strap yourselves in folks, because from all accounts this next week could get wild.
But while that's all going on, we've still got to figure out which two-start pitching streamers we should be grabbing this week. Before we get there though, let's check in on how Week 17's streamers have fared so far. Not so good is the answer, as four of the five guys we spotlighted last week have struggled in their first start of Week 17. However Tarik Skubal put together a solid outing against Texas, allowing one run on four hits with four strikeouts over six innings of work to earn the win.
And now with the recap out of the way, we can take a look at Week 18's two-start streamers.
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Week 18 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Andrew Heaney, LAA - 52% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs COL, vs OAK
Heaney has been plagued with inconsistency all year long, but when he has pitched well he's been able to provide decent fantasy value. His biggest value driver this year has been the strikeouts, as his 27.9 percent strikeout rate and 29.5 percent whiff rate are his best marks since 2019 and rank him in the 73rd and 72nd percentiles respectively, while his career-high 33.1 percent chase rate ranks in the 92nd percentile. It's difficult to overlook the 5.32 ERA he's posted across 88 innings, but it appears he's been somewhat unlucky on the mound as he sports a 4.20 xERA. Granted that's still not a great ERA, but it is an improvement.
He'll start off the week at home when he faces off against the Rockies, who have gone 5-5 over their last 10 games while slashing .249/.324/.374 and averaging 4.3 runs per game over that span. This will be an interesting matchup to see what happens, because on one hand Colorado is hitting significantly better against left-handers (.263/.328/.425) than against right-handers (.237/.305/.379) this season. But on the other hand, take the Rockies out of Coors Field and their offensive numbers plummet, as they're slashing .204/.279/.305 on the road as opposed to .276/.338/.461 at home.
Closing out Week 18, Heaney will stay at home to take on the Athletics for the second time this year. The lefty-righty splits for Oakland this year are nearly identical, and unfortunately for Heaney they are hitting better on the road (.248/.313/.428) than at home (.221/.312/.383). Over their last 10 games though, Oakland is averaging 3.9 runs per game while slashing .234/.294/.417, and given the fact Heaney only allowed three runs over five innings with six strikeouts in his last appearance against the Athletics, this could still end up being a decent enough matchup.
Heaney is not exactly an exciting option in Week 18, but he can still get the job done. He'll be most valuable to managers who are chasing strikeouts and are not particularly concerned about taking a hit to their ERA and WHIP. Of the two matchups, his outing against Colorado should provide the most value for Heaney.
Michael Pineda, MIN - 37% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs DET, @ STL
Ever since joining the Twins, Pineda has been putting up the best numbers of his career — and 2021 has proven to be no different. While not flashy, Pineda has been a solid pitcher with a 3.93 ERA, 1.221 WHIP and 21 percent strikeout rate over 66 1/3 innings of work. He had a rough four-start stretch in June and early July that inflated his numbers, but he looked much better his last time out against the White Sox, where he limited them to one run with three strikeouts over five innings to earn the win.
He'll have an interesting matchup to kick off the week when he goes against the Tigers at home. Throughout the first half, managers would look at a matchup with Detroit and automatically slot in whoever was pitching against the Tigers. However the Tigers have gotten red hot recently with a seven-game winning streak in which they're slashing .295/.342/.525 and averaging six runs per game. There are a few factors that will help out Pineda though, starting with the fact that Detroit is hitting worse this year against righties (.236/.308/.395) than against lefties (.249/.313/.400). What should also really help Pineda is the home-road splits, as not only are the Tigers hitting worse on the road (.237/.302/.395) than at home (.242/.316/.398), Pineda has been pitching much better at home (3.75 ERA, 1.167 WHIP) than on the road (4.42 ERA, 1.364 WHIP).
Those home-road splits work in Pineda's favor to open the week, but then he'll be on the wrong side of those splits when he heads on the road to face St. Louis at the end of the week. Not only is Pineda pitching worse on the road, the Cardinals are also hitting better at home this year (.245/.312/.386) than on the road (.219/.293/.381). Plus, the Cardinals have been swinging the bat well recently, slashing .254/.308/.429 and averaging four runs per game over their last 10 games. But that being said, St. Louis has hit worse against right-handed pitching (.230/.299/.379) than against left-handers (.236/.313/.401), which could help Pineda out some.
At the end of the day these will be a couple of somewhat tougher matchups for Pineda. He will benefit from some of the left-righty and home-road splits, but he'll still be facing off against two teams that are on a roll at the plate right now. If he's lucky and both the Tigers and Cardinals cool off over the weekend, then he should be a solid play in Week 18. And if they remain hot, Pineda should still be able to provide some value in most formats. At the very least, he should get a good chance at some strikeouts against the Tigers, who own the worst strikeout rate in the majors at 26.5 percent.
Week 18 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Kyle Muller, ATL - 20% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ NYM, vs MIL
Despite the 1-3 record, Muller has had a solid start to his major league career in 2021, posting a 3.20 ERA, 1.119 WHIP and 28.4 percent strikeout rate over 19 2/3 innings of work. Muller only tossed four innings his last time out in Game 1 of a doubleheader with San Diego, but in the two starts prior to that he had posted a combined 2.53 ERA, 1.031 WHIP and 38.1 percent strikeout rate against the Reds and Marlins. He'll kick off the week with a rematch against the Mets after allowing one run over four innings in his first career start back in June. This could be a tough matchup as they're on a tear over their last 10 games, where New York is slashing .269/.362/.520 and averaging 6.4 runs per game. One possible silver lining though is that the Mets are hitting worse at home (.227/.320/.359) than on the road (.239/.311/.404). He'll close out the week with a potentially better matchup against a Brewers squad that is struggling a bit at the plate, slashing .257/.345/.394 over their last 10 games. Along with that, they own the sixth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 25.8 percent.
Muller will be a risky option this week, not just because of the difficult matchup with the Mets, but also because he's only reached the five innings mark in two of his four starts this year. His main value will come in his strikeouts, and that matchup with Milwaukee looks to be a good one for Muller to rack up the Ks. If you're not too concerned about Muller potentially missing out on wins this week by not pitching deep enough, he's a solid option to choose.
Tylor Megill, NYM - 18% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs ATL, vs CIN
Another rookie pitcher off to a good start, Megill currently owns a 2.63 ERA, 1.208 WHIP and 27.7 percent strikeout rate over 24 innings of work. He's done well in particular over his last three starts, where he's recorded a 1.23 ERA, 1.159 WHIP and 26.2 percent strikeout rate over 14 2/3 innings of work. Megill will open up the week with his third start against Atlanta this year, after combining to allow five runs in 9 1/3 innings of work while striking out 12. The Braves have been on a roll recently, as they're slashing .263/.332/.465 and averaging 5.9 runs per game over their last 10 games. However they have done worse on the road this year (.225/.312/.388) than at home (.252/.329/.458), which could be a point in Megill's favor. He'll then close out the week against a Cincinnati squad that not only is hitting worse on the road (.238/.317/.374) than at home (.255/.339/.446), but has also been in the midst of a significant slump that has seen them slash .216/.309/.325 and average 3.7 runs per game over their last 10 games.
That Cincinnati matchup should be the better matchup for Megill in Week 18, however the Atlanta start could provide some good strikeout value as the Braves are tied for the eighth-highest strikeout rate in the majors at 24.5 percent. Between Muller and Megill, the better option to pick in Week 18 will most likely be Megill. However managers may want to consider trying to pick up both and double-dip on two-start streamers this week.
Tyler Anderson, PIT - 16% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs MIL, vs PHI
Anderson is back once again in the two-start streamers column, and he's coming back after some good performances over his last five starts where he's gone 2-1 with a 3.03 ERA, 1.045 WHIP and 17.5 percent strikeout rate across 29 2/3 innings of work. He'll open up the week against the aforementioned struggling Brewers, however unlike in Muller's case, Anderson is on the wrong side of Milwaukee's lefty-righty splits as the Brewers have hit slightly better against left-handers this year (.228/.320/.391) than against right-handers (.222/.312/.378). Then again, Anderson threw seven shutout innings with six strikeouts the last time he faced Milwaukee. In his second start of the week he'll match up with a Phillies squad that is slashing .239/.342/.387 while averaging 4.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. Philadelphia is hitting slightly worse on the road (.238/.311/.401) than at home (.241/.326/.396), however they are doing much better against left-handed pitching (.254/.331/.414) than they are against righties (.232/.311/.391).
On top of all that, Anderson will be facing off against two of the teams that are striking out the most this year, as Milwaukee (25.8%) and Philadelphia (24.6%) have the sixth- and seventh-highest strikeout rates in the majors respectively. Anderson has been a solid two start streamer this year, and I see no reason why Anderson shouldn't be a good option to choose in Week 18.
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