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Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Week 12 (11/24/19)

Week 11 was a great one, falling just short of perfection, maybe this is the week the Bears will get their stuff together. As each week passes, we can begin to hone in on the right situations to target. I for one cannot believe we can smell the playoffs, but that just makes betting on these meaningful games more fun.

I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. 

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New York Giants at Chicago (-6.5)

O/U: 40

Sitting at 2-8, the Giants are vying for a top-5 pick in the 2020 NFL draft. Daniel Jones has been good enough that this team should have more than two wins, but their defense has other ideas. Saquon Barkley hasn't had time to think, let alone break a run so he has been relied upon more in the passing game of late. They'll also welcome back Sterling Shepard this week, which will certainly aid the offense. However, this defensive unit is league-worst in points allowed over their last three (34 ppg) and they're dead last with 33 ppg allowed on the road this year. 

Chicago's offense is in about the same rut that the Giants' defense is, as they've averaged just 17 ppg, leading to a 1-5 record over their last six contests. Mitch Trubisky was his coach's scapegoat at the end of last week's embarrassing loss, however, he hasn't thrown for over 200 yards in any of the last three games, so they need more from him. David Montgomery is still the lead back but game scripts have made him near useless of late. Allen Robinson is still the best player on this offense, and he should be able to feast this week, if Trusbisky is able to find him. Defensively, Chicago allows just 16 ppg and 289 yards per game at home, which are two of the top marks in the league. 

As a road team, the Giants put up 23 ppg, but all five of their road games have seen the total go over. Meanwhile, the Bears average just 16 ppg at home, and their five games at Soldier Field have only seen the over hit once. I see this as a get-right-game for Chicago where the offense is able to put some points on the board, whereas for New York, Daniel Jones should be able to utilize his weapons enough to get on the board a handful of times.

Pick: Over 40


Seattle at Philadelphia (-1.5)

O/U: 48

As winners of four of their last five, the Seahawks have people believing. However, just two of their eight victories have come by a margin of seven points or more. Russell Wilson has been spot on of late, and his 23:2 TD:Int this season is almost impossible to replicate. Chris Carson has been the workhorse Seattle needs, and they'll possibly be getting Tyler Lockett healthy and on the field after his scare this week as well. On the defensive side, the Seahawks have been pretty leaky this season. As visitors in 2019, they allow 5.6 yards per play and just under 22 ppg. 

Defensively, Philadelphia has been one of the league's best over the past few weeks. According to Field Yates of ESPN, the Eagles lead the league by allowing just 238 yards per game, and 4.2 yards per play since Week 8. Unfortunately, the offense hasn't followed suit as they have averaged just 333 yards of offense over their last three. Carson Wentz hasn't thrown for over 240 yards in a game over that same stretch, and it's partially because he's been sacked 12 times. If the offensive line can't contain defensive fronts, then forget establishing a run game for Miles Sanders and Jordan Howard, which ultimately puts all the weight on Wentz's shoulders.

Seattle is fresh off a bye following their big overtime win over the 49ers, marking their third consecutive win. The Seahawks are 4-1 against the spread on the road and a perfect 3-0 ATS when considered road underdogs. Philly is just 2-3 ATS at home, and are 2-5 ATS against fellow NFC opponents. I'm rolling with Seattle to be fresh and ready to roll off the bye.

Pick: Seattle +1.5


Jacksonville at Tennessee  (-3)

O/U: 41.5

Head Coach Doug Marrone said it best, they need to utilize Leonard Fournette more. The back has just one rushing touchdown this season and has rushed for more than 80 yards just three times. Over the last three contests, Fournette has just 38 carries for 139 yards; it's simply not enough. Nick Foles is back under center, and while D.J. Chark (hamstring) could miss this one, Dede Westbrook and Fournette should be able to handle the workload. On the defensive side, the Jaguars haven’t been great recently, allowing 59 points over their last two against the Texans and Colts.

Tennessee has seen a resurgence since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter at quarterback. Winning three of their last four, the Titans have averaged 26 ppg in that stretch. Now they get a divisional matchup to really test their credibility. Derrick Henry has finally become that bell-cow back many expected, and he’s coming off a 188 yard, two-touchdown performance two weeks ago. Defensively, the Titans get more credit than they deserve. They’ve allowed an average of 28 points and 230 yards over their last three, which is among the league’s worst.

I’m expecting Jacksonville to come out and make a statement early. If they feed Fournette like they say they need to, I don’t think Tennessee will be able to contain him. Both defenses have been bad of late, so we’ll look for the better offense and I see Jacksonville taking the cake in that category.

Pick: Jacksonville ML +145


Baltimore at LA Rams (+3)

O/U: 46.5

The Ravens are making a case for being the best team in football. They’ve scored at least 13 points in the first half of each of their last six games, thanks to Lamar Jackson. Meanwhile, the Rams haven’t been quite as strong since their bye week, scoring just 29 total points in their last two. Jared Goff hasn’t thrown a touchdown in that stretch, and Todd Gurley hasn’t been exactly game-breaking either.

Both teams combine to score over 28 points in the first half this season, and that's with the Rams’ recent struggles. The Ravens are a wagon at the moment and I’m going to ride that out. I also have faith that the Rams offense will be better, especially with one of either Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods expected to play.

Pick: 1st Half Over 23.5

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