Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

Lost password? [X]

Receive free daily analysis:


Already have an account? Log in here.


Forgot Password


Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Week 11 (11/17/19)

Not a great week in the books last week, and it's been a struggle overall. You can fade what I pick here as I'm on a nice cold streak over the past few weeks. Let's hope for better outcomes as the season begins to close out.

I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.

Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season. 

Editor's Note: Here's a really nice special offer for all RotoBaller readers and prop picks hounds out there, from our friends at the fastest growing DFS site, Monkey Knife Fight. New AND Existing Player Bonus - All players receive a 100% matched signup or reload bonus up to $50 with code 'RBNFL19'.  Sign up and deposit, and use our picks below to get off on a winning foot! 


Buffalo at Miami (+6.5)

O/U: 40.5

Well, last week was a bit of a let down for the Bills, as they weren't able to take down the Browns. However, they get to come back and play the Dolphins who are riding high on a two-game win streak. Things went awry against Cleveland because Josh Allen became the focal point of the offense (260 passing yards, the most in one game on the season), and things just didn't work. In two of their three losses, they failed to rush for over 100 yards, meanwhile, in their six wins, they've rushed for 109 yards or more. Allen is solid, but it's imperative that the Bills utilize Frank Gore and Devin Singletary more. Defensively, they've taken a small step back in their last four games, allowing at least 368 yards in three of them. Luckily, they get a spot to bounce back against a Dolphins team that still isn't any good.

I'll keep this short and sweet. Ryan Fitzpatrick is very good at winning games that mean nothing but somehow making people think his team is turning the tide. This Dolphins team is very bad and their management probably isn't very happy that they won their last two games. The offense has averaged just 272.5 yards in their last two games, while the defense has stepped up to force four turnovers and hold the Jets and Colts to just 18 and 12 points, respectively.

The Bills are 3-0-1 against the spread as visitors this season, and while they average just 18.8 points per game on the road, the Dolphins allow an average of 33 ppg at home. Look for Miami to return back to their means in this one and Buffalo to take care of business. Make sure you get this before it jumps any higher than seven points.

Pick: Buffalo -6.5


New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5.5)

O/U: 49.5

The Saints got a shock last week when they got their doors blown off by the Falcons at home. It was just their fourth home game since 2005 (second this season) that they didn't score a touchdown, so it was a pretty rare occurrence. While their matchup with the stout run defense of Tampa Bay is daunting, the Saints' big three of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas are among the best in the league and I'll trust their talent any day. Look for a nice bounce-back spot by New Orleans.

Tampa Bay got back into the win column last week, and while it was a shootout with the Arizona Cardinals, the Bucs' offense has shown that they're capable of winning games themselves. While Jameis Winston still loves to throw interceptions, he's also thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last four games. He'll just need to find Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the end zone a little more frequently. Defensively, Tampa Bay allows just 77.8 rushing yards per game, which is the best mark in the league. However, that's paired with the worst passing defense in the league at 298 yards allowed per game. Winston and company will again have to be the backbone if Tampa Bay wants a shot.

These two teams have proven to have some of the strongest scoring offenses in the league with Tampa Bay averaging 26 ppg at home, while New Orleans drops around 23 ppg on the road. The Saints will be out to bounce back, while Tampa Bay is looking to string together consecutive wins for the first time since Week 13 of last year.

Pick: Over 49.5


New England at Philadelphia  (+3.5)

O/U: 45

The Patriots got a free week off to think about their loss to the Ravens, and to be honest, I wouldn't want to be the team facing the wrath of a pissed off Bill Belichick. Nonetheless, the Patriots are still 8-1 and cruising to another first-round bye in the playoffs. Tom Brady has been his normal self, throwing for over 2,300 yards and 14 touchdowns, but he hasn't been given much help from the run game; the Pats haven't rushed for more than 79 yards in any of the three previous games. Defensively, they average three takeaways a game, making them one of the top units in football.

Philadelphia has had quite the streaky season so far, winning their last two before the bye. However, before that, they lost two straight after winning two straight and it just seems like this Eagles team is playing as mediocre as their record suggests. Carson Wentz has been solid, but the run game has just been too inconsistent. Add in that Alshon Jeffery is looking less likely to play in his second straight game, and this offense takes a major hit. On the defensive side, the Eagles are much better at home, allowing almost 100 yards less offense and almost 10 ppg less than when they're visitors.

Since 2015, the Patriots are 9-5 ATS after a loss. Their 29 ppg on the road is the fourth highest in the NFL, and while their last two games were of their lowest scoring outputs of the season (27 and 20, respectively), the bye week should put them in a good frame of mind. For Philly, they're 4-2 as home underdogs since Carson Wentz was drafted in 2016. However, I'm going to side with the Patriots getting right in this one, and if you tail, don't be afraid to buy the half point down to -3.

Pick: New England -3


Chicago at LA Rams (-6.5)

O/U: 40.5

The Bears offense hasn't been good this year as Mitch Trubisky is looking more like a bust as the weeks go by. However, with talents like Allen Robinson and David Montgomery around him, I find it hard to believe he can't make something happen when the situation presents itself.

When they're at home, the LA Rams allow opponents to score an average of 28 ppg, one of the highest totals in the league. While the Bears offense hasn't shown much in the past three weeks, they have been able to put up 20.5 ppg on the road. I look for Chicago to make this game closer than LA would like.

Pick: Chicago Over 16.5

More Football Analysis

More Recent Articles


The King's Week 14 Lineup Rankings and Analysis (Premium Content)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! Below you will find my Week 14 fantasy football lineup rankings for the first round of your playoffs. The ranks are available in PPR, Half PPR, and Standard formats. They will be updated as needed, so make sure to check back for the latest versions, especially on the weekends. Skill Position analysis versus... Read More

Fantasy Football Booms, Busts - Zach Pascal, Jamaal Williams, Gardner Minshew

Whether this is the first week of your playoffs, the last week of your regular season, or the time to win a DFS league to pay for your holiday presents, this is the most crucial week of your fantasy football season. While my booms from last week (Robert Woods, Jack Doyle, Dede Westbrook, Kyle Allen)... Read More

Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 14

It's that time of year again! While many will be caught up in the thrills of the holiday season, those lucky few who have risen to the top of their fantasy leagues will be sweating over lineup decisions in pursuit of a championship (in most league formats). To our fantasy owners who have managed to... Read More

Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 13 Analysis

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As many of you prepare for your Week 14 matchups, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which... Read More

Week 14 Stream Team - Free Agent and Bye-Week Streamers

Now that the playoffs are beginning in most leagues and the final march for a championship has begun, streaming becomes a  necessary strategy. Knowing who to add and when to start them could be the ultimate difference-maker in a weekly matchup. Making the right streaming decisions could easily be the difference in winning a championship.... Read More

Fantasy Football Disaster Recovery: Playoff Panic

Welcome to Disaster Recovery, where each week I'll examine why your studs played like duds. This isn't a place to find out why you should have sat a player for somebody else on your bench. Disaster Recovery is here to examine the guys who you didn't think twice about starting and to help you decide if you should... Read More

The Tape Tells All - Derrius Guice Fantasy Outlook

Welcome to another edition of "The Tape Tells All," where I break down some film of an NFL's player performance and try to draw some fantasy football conclusions from that film. This week, I'm looking at Washington running back Derrius Guice, who's finally healthy and finally getting a chance to show why people were so... Read More

Week 14 Fantasy Football Staff Rankings

Below you will find all of RotoBaller's fantasy football weekly rankings, tiers, player news and stats for the 2019 NFL season. Our Ranking Wizard displays our staff's rankings for various league formats, all in one easy place. Here's what you'll find: Weekly PPR Rankings Weekly Half-PPR Rankings Weekly Standard Rankings Dynasty League Rankings     Fantasy... Read More

Quarterback Leaderboards Before the Fantasy Playoffs - NFL Next Gen Stats

You won't believe it, but you weren't dreaming. That turkey you stuffed your face with a few days ago? Real. Those three games on a Thursday? Real, indeed. Your weekly meeting with football on the telly this past Sunday? Also real. All of that together only meant one thing: the fantasy football regular season is... Read More

Fantasy Playoffs Warning Signs: Wide Receivers

We all know a good wide receiver is important. Most leagues are PPR and more receivers are played than other positions. But the key is finding those wide receivers with favorable matchups. Just like with other positions, it is difficult to know at draft time which defenses will be good or bad by the time... Read More

Offensive Line Rankings Analysis: Week 14

Week 13 had the season's first snow game, a potential SuperBowl preview, and an incredible play from the Miami Dolphins special teams! If you haven't seen it have a look and come back. Now let's move onto Week 14. If you aren't in playoff contention, then this article could help you with some DFS selections.... Read More

Week 14-16 Playoff Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2019 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

The playoffs are here, and that means we're going to do things a little differently. I want to take a look at the playoffs as a whole (and in this case we are considering Weeks 14-16) and determine which DSTs you can ride all the way through and which ones you should stream this week.... Read More

NFL Survivor Pool Picks (Week 14) - Targets and Avoids

If there were a dozen people left in a survivor pool this past week, odds are those pools are down to just several. The upsets began Thursday when the Bills beat the Cowboys, and continued Sunday when the Dolphins and Redskins won as 10-point underdogs. If you're somehow still alive in your pool with just... Read More

Week 14 Waiver Wire Pickups & Adds

If you are reading this, then you most likely are in your league's playoffs, so congrats. Now, the real work begins. There is no more "rest of season" value, as it's do or die this week. Matchups are more crucial than ever, so weigh your options carefully before pulling the trigger to spend whatever FAAB... Read More

FAAB Bidding - Week 14 Waiver Wire Targets

Assisting our famous waiver wire pickups list, and our weekly waiver wire columns by position, this column focuses on suggested waiver wire bidding percentages for fantasy football owners in leagues using a Free Agent Acquisition Budget (FAAB). As a caveat, these prices do not by any means indicate how much these free agent players will... Read More