RADIO
Not a great week in the books last week, and it's been a struggle overall. You can fade what I pick here as I'm on a nice cold streak over the past few weeks. Let's hope for better outcomes as the season begins to close out.
- Week 10 Picks: 1-3 (25%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 18-21 (46%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Buffalo at Miami (+6.5)
O/U: 40.5
Well, last week was a bit of a let down for the Bills, as they weren't able to take down the Browns. However, they get to come back and play the Dolphins who are riding high on a two-game win streak. Things went awry against Cleveland because Josh Allen became the focal point of the offense (260 passing yards, the most in one game on the season), and things just didn't work. In two of their three losses, they failed to rush for over 100 yards, meanwhile, in their six wins, they've rushed for 109 yards or more. Allen is solid, but it's imperative that the Bills utilize Frank Gore and Devin Singletary more. Defensively, they've taken a small step back in their last four games, allowing at least 368 yards in three of them. Luckily, they get a spot to bounce back against a Dolphins team that still isn't any good.
I'll keep this short and sweet. Ryan Fitzpatrick is very good at winning games that mean nothing but somehow making people think his team is turning the tide. This Dolphins team is very bad and their management probably isn't very happy that they won their last two games. The offense has averaged just 272.5 yards in their last two games, while the defense has stepped up to force four turnovers and hold the Jets and Colts to just 18 and 12 points, respectively.
The Bills are 3-0-1 against the spread as visitors this season, and while they average just 18.8 points per game on the road, the Dolphins allow an average of 33 ppg at home. Look for Miami to return back to their means in this one and Buffalo to take care of business. Make sure you get this before it jumps any higher than seven points.
Pick: Buffalo -6.5
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (+5.5)
O/U: 49.5
The Saints got a shock last week when they got their doors blown off by the Falcons at home. It was just their fourth home game since 2005 (second this season) that they didn't score a touchdown, so it was a pretty rare occurrence. While their matchup with the stout run defense of Tampa Bay is daunting, the Saints' big three of Drew Brees, Alvin Kamara, and Michael Thomas are among the best in the league and I'll trust their talent any day. Look for a nice bounce-back spot by New Orleans.
Tampa Bay got back into the win column last week, and while it was a shootout with the Arizona Cardinals, the Bucs' offense has shown that they're capable of winning games themselves. While Jameis Winston still loves to throw interceptions, he's also thrown for over 300 yards in each of the last four games. He'll just need to find Chris Godwin and Mike Evans in the end zone a little more frequently. Defensively, Tampa Bay allows just 77.8 rushing yards per game, which is the best mark in the league. However, that's paired with the worst passing defense in the league at 298 yards allowed per game. Winston and company will again have to be the backbone if Tampa Bay wants a shot.
These two teams have proven to have some of the strongest scoring offenses in the league with Tampa Bay averaging 26 ppg at home, while New Orleans drops around 23 ppg on the road. The Saints will be out to bounce back, while Tampa Bay is looking to string together consecutive wins for the first time since Week 13 of last year.
Pick: Over 49.5
New England at Philadelphia (+3.5)
O/U: 45
The Patriots got a free week off to think about their loss to the Ravens, and to be honest, I wouldn't want to be the team facing the wrath of a pissed off Bill Belichick. Nonetheless, the Patriots are still 8-1 and cruising to another first-round bye in the playoffs. Tom Brady has been his normal self, throwing for over 2,300 yards and 14 touchdowns, but he hasn't been given much help from the run game; the Pats haven't rushed for more than 79 yards in any of the three previous games. Defensively, they average three takeaways a game, making them one of the top units in football.
Philadelphia has had quite the streaky season so far, winning their last two before the bye. However, before that, they lost two straight after winning two straight and it just seems like this Eagles team is playing as mediocre as their record suggests. Carson Wentz has been solid, but the run game has just been too inconsistent. Add in that Alshon Jeffery is looking less likely to play in his second straight game, and this offense takes a major hit. On the defensive side, the Eagles are much better at home, allowing almost 100 yards less offense and almost 10 ppg less than when they're visitors.
Since 2015, the Patriots are 9-5 ATS after a loss. Their 29 ppg on the road is the fourth highest in the NFL, and while their last two games were of their lowest scoring outputs of the season (27 and 20, respectively), the bye week should put them in a good frame of mind. For Philly, they're 4-2 as home underdogs since Carson Wentz was drafted in 2016. However, I'm going to side with the Patriots getting right in this one, and if you tail, don't be afraid to buy the half point down to -3.
Pick: New England -3
Chicago at LA Rams (-6.5)
O/U: 40.5
The Bears offense hasn't been good this year as Mitch Trubisky is looking more like a bust as the weeks go by. However, with talents like Allen Robinson and David Montgomery around him, I find it hard to believe he can't make something happen when the situation presents itself.
When they're at home, the LA Rams allow opponents to score an average of 28 ppg, one of the highest totals in the league. While the Bears offense hasn't shown much in the past three weeks, they have been able to put up 20.5 ppg on the road. I look for Chicago to make this game closer than LA would like.
Pick: Chicago Over 16.5
