RADIO
Back-to-back negative weeks isn't how we want to go through the middle of the season, but last week saw quite a few shifts in betting trends compared to the first few weeks of the year. Therefore, we head into Week 10 with some ground to make up. With six teams on bye, it's a little more difficult to find the right value, but we push on!
- Week 9 Picks: 1-3 (75%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 17-18 (49%)
I'm here to break down each team's spot, as well as dive into my favorite spreads, totals, team totals, and even moneylines for this week of the NFL schedule. My goal is to find the right value for you to be able to make money. Vegas makes you really work to find the right picks, but I hope I can make things a little more clear for you each and every week.
Follow me on Twitter @sgjanik_6 to chat about football and my picks. I’m also on the Action App @sgjanik6 where I’ll post all the picks below and more this season.
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Buffalo at Cleveland (-3)
O/U: 40
The Bills have been a pleasant surprise this year with a 6-2 record. Josh Allen hasn’t been spectacular, but he’s been the franchise quarterback the team has needed for some time now. Add in rookie halfback Devin Singletary finally developing a role in the offense, and things might just be getting started in Buffalo. While they’ve only scored 21 or more points four times this year, the Bills have tallied 37% of their total points in just three road games. Defensively, Buffalo gets to face a Browns offense that is urgently trying to right the ship. That might be tough this week as the Bills average 16.4 points per game allowed, which is third-best in the league.
The Browns have been a disaster, considering their high expectations entering the season. Last week’s loss at Denver might be one of the lower points of their season thus far, but there are some positives to pull from their schedule. As a team, they’ve rushed for 100-plus yards in five of their eight games, and have eclipsed 310 or more yards of offense in each of their last three games. However, they’ve struggled with ball security, coughing up 11 turnovers in that same three-game stretch. That means Baker Mayfield needs to make better decisions and Nick Chubb needs to hold onto the ball, especially with Kareem Hunt set to make his 2019 debut in Week 10.
At 2-6, it’s interesting that Cleveland is favored in this one, but considering the fact that they’re returning home after playing on the road in four of their last six games, and I can understand Vegas here. I see both sides being able to put up at least 21 in this one, as Cleveland has their backs against the wall and will need to show up early.
Pick: Over 40
Arizona at Tampa Bay (-4.5)
O/U: 52.5
The Cardinals gave the undefeated 49ers a scare last week, thanks to a big game from newly-acquired Kenyan Drake. While they’re 3-5-1 overall, this team has some serious potential. They’ve totaled over 320 yards of offense in six of eight games this season, and have only scored less than 20 points three times. Kyler Murray has done a solid job running the offense, and limiting mistakes (just four turnovers). Add in that David Johnson is set to return against a Bucs defense that allows 31.5 ppg at home and I'll consider the Cardinals in a good spot.
Tampa Bay has had a rough go of things over the past four weeks, dropping every game by no more than 11 points. Now, they return home to host a Cardinals Defense that allows 27.9 ppg. Jameis Winston has been his usual self, throwing for over 1,000 yards but with a 5/7 TD/INT ratio in the past three games. Ronald Jones II seems to have taken over the backfield duties, which seems to point to why Tampa Bay has been passing so much. Defensively, they are a rotating door that has given up 34.7 ppg in their last three contests.
Over their last 20 games as a home favorite of 5.5 points or less, Tampa Bay is 5-15 against the spread. Meanwhile, Arizona has been solid with the points in Kliff Kingsbury’s first season at the helm, going 5-2 ATS in non-divisional games and 3-1 ATS as road underdogs. Roll with the Cards and the points in Week 10.
Pick: Arizona +4.5
Detroit at Chicago (-2.5)
O/U: 41.5
The Lions have adopted a pass-heavy attack of late, and Matthew Stafford has thrived under that gameplan. In each of the last three games, he’s thrown for at least 340 yards and three touchdowns, and while Detroit has just a 1-2 record to show, this team is best served airing it out. Luckily for Stafford, Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones have cashed in when called upon, hauling in 13 combined touchdowns this season. Defensively, all you need to know is the Lions have surrendered at least 23 points in every game but one this season.
As losers of their last four, the Bears have struggled mightily to live up to their lofty goals from the beginning of the year. Mitch Trubisky has been just about as bad as a QB1 can be in the NFL and still keep his job, but if there was ever a get-right game, it’s this week. David Montgomery is finally getting the volume he deserves (48 touches in the last two games) and that alone gives the Chicago a better chance. This defense is still one of the best in the league but their pass defense can be suspect, allowing 230 yards per game.
Through eight games this season, only one of Detroit’s matchups have had a combined total of fewer than 45 points. Four of their last five have gone over the projected total, including their last three that have seen totals of 55, 57, and 72 combined points, respectively. While Chicago’s offense has been rough recently, facing the Lions at home is a great spot for Trubisky and company to make things happen.
Pick: Over 41.5
Minnesota at Dallas (-3)
O/U: 47.5
Minnesota is 4-1 in their last five and Kirk Cousins has officially resurrected people’s positive opinions of him. Combine his 13/1 TD/INT rate with Dalvin Cook’s four scores in that stretch, and the Vikings are possibly one of the hottest teams in football. Then there are the Cowboys, who have had a roller-coaster season thus far. However, they’ve held it together in their last two with blowout wins over the Eagles and Giants. Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have been the players Dallas expects them to be, accounting for five touchdowns in the past two games.
Dallas seems to have no issues getting started at home, as they average 14.5 ppg in the first half at home, compared to just 9.0 ppg on the road. Minnesota is in a similar boat, averaging just under 20 ppg in the first half at home, but only 11.8 on the road. This benefits the Cowboys in Jerry’s world and I look for Minnesota to stumble out of the gate.
Pick: Dallas 1st Half -1.5
