RADIO
It was a good Wild Card Round from betting purposes, that is of course if you didn't bet it all on the Patriots. It's hard to picture a time when you've seen New England struggle so much on offense, but Tennessee did what they needed to do. Buffalo completely fell apart in the second half of their game, breaking the heart of all the Bills fans that traveled. Meanwhile, Seattle got a nice pass after Carson Wentz went down early in the game, giving the Seahawks a bump to the Divisional round.
- Wild Card Round Picks: 2-1 (66%)
- 2019-20 Picks: 35-34 (51%)
This is an interesting week of lines, as we have two games where the spread is at or around double digits, which makes you scratch your head a bit, since it's the playoffs. However, we're geared up for another great weekend of football!
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Minnesota at San Francisco (-7)
O/U: 44.5 **Game is on Saturday, Jan. 11 at 4:35pm
The Vikings squeaked out a controversial win over the Saints in the Wild Card Round last week, but does anyone really have confidence that the Vikings are a team that should be this far in the playoffs? With talent like Dalvin Cook, Adam Thielen (ankle), and Stefon Diggs, yeah, I'd say they are at least good enough on paper. However, it's their defense that has been quite solid of late, allowing no more than 23 points in any of their last five games.
San Francisco is in the playoffs for the first time since 2013 and that lack of experience is riddled throughout the roster. Jimmy Garoppolo gave a solid impression that he can lead a franchise, but his backfield counterparts have been a big factor in their 13-3 record. Tevin Coleman, Raheem Mostert, and Matt Breida have all had a lead role one point or another this year, but at this point in the season, I’m not even sure they know who will be the best back every week. Defensively, the Niners had some struggles to end the regular season, giving up 32 points per game over the last four games. However, consider that Kwon Alexander is expected to be activated before their game and will be ready to play, which is an enormous boost.
I look for San Francisco to operate slow, out of the gate, thanks to their youth lack of playoff experience. Meanwhile, Minnesota is riding high right now, but they also have one of the most boom-or-bust offenses in the league, and San Francisco should be able to give them enough issues, defensively, to keep this one low scoring.
Pick: Under 44.5
Tennessee at Baltimore (-9.5)
O/U: 51 **Game is on Saturday, Jan, 11 at 8:15pm
Many seem to think the Titans have ended the Patriots reign over the NFL with their 20-13 win over New England in the Wild Card Round. However, it was more the inability of the Patriots to do anything offensively, than it was the Titans taking over. Ryan Tannehill threw for just 72 yards, but they didn’t need anymore from him as Derrick Henry produced 182 yards and a score on 34 carries; this offense is his and his only right now. One thing going for them this week is their run defense, which ranks 10th in DVOA. They'll need to bring their absolute "A-game" to slow down Baltimore's offense.
Lamar Jackson has brought Baltimore into the limelight this season, and as the NFL’s top team, they’ve proven to be very hard to beat. He, along with Mark Ingram (calf) and their stable of backs broke the league record for most team rushing yards in a season (3,296 yards). However, Jackson’s 36 touchdowns, through the air, make him the biggest issue on the field, and it's not close. Defensively, they’ve allowed 20 points or more just twice in the last nine games and have forced a turnover in each of their last 13 games.
Tennessee had to give their absolute all into knocking off the Patriots last week, and that led to just 20 points. I look for the Titans to come out sluggish on the road, having a bit of a hangover, while Baltimore’s week off to open the playoffs gives them a big leg up on both sides of the ball.
Pick: 1st Half Baltimore -5.5
Seattle at Green Bay (-4)
O/U: 47 ** Game is on Sunday, Jan. 12 at 6:40pm
The Seahawks went to the east coast and downed an Eagles team, sans Carson Wentz, in the Wild Card Round, but their performance didn't exactly instill confidence in the betting public. Russell Wilson had to do the majority of the work, as the run game was essentially non-existent with Marshawn Lynch and Travis Homer. Wilson relied on rookie receiver D.K. Metcalf and he lifted the Seahawks to victory with 160 receiving yards and a score. Defensively, Seattle held the Eagles to under 300 yards of offense and no touchdowns, but again, keep in mind that was with a 40-year-old Josh McCown leading the charge for Philly.
Aaron Rodgers posted one of his most efficient seasons of his career this year, and while he won't win any MVP awards for it, Green Bay finished 13-3 and are seen as a real Super Bowl contender out of the NFC. Aaron Jones has proven to be a crucial weapon on offense with 16 touchdowns this season, and combined with star receiver Davante Adams, this offense is in a great place coming off a first-round bye. The defensive unit has been just as hot, allowing an average of just 286 yards of offense over their last three regular season game, while not surrendering more than 20 points over their last five.
Green Bay is 5-3 against the spread as home favorites in 2019, and while Seattle was 6-2 ATS on the road this year, their defense hasn’t been great, with last week as an outlier. In each of the last four regular season games, Seattle allowed over 398 yards of offense and at least 125 yards rushing. The Packers should have no issues scoring on Seattle, and with a fresh defense, Green Bay will roll to the NFC Championship game.
Pick: Green Bay -4
