Top NFL Betting Expert Picks For Wild Card Round (1/5/20)

The Bills are in the playoffs for the second time in three years, but this time around they’re actually a team that opponents really have to look at twice. While they did drop three of their last four, all three losses were by exactly a touchdown. No doubt, they’ll need Josh Allen to be on his A-game, as his targets, John Brown, Cole Beasley, and Dawson Knox, are reliable but not game breaking. Rookie tailback Devin Singletary and vet Frank Gore have done just enough to help carry the offense this season, but oddly enough Allen is the running threat the Texans will need to key in on, especially around the red zone. Defensively, the Bills’ fifth-ranked passing defense, by DVOA, will have their hands full, but with Will Fuller (groin) questionable to play, Buffalo will be able to key in on the Texans’ other assets.

Houston had to grind their way into a divisional championship but they took care of business winning two of the last three. Deshaun Watson has been a little careless with the ball in that stretch though, throwing five interceptions. Against the Bills stout secondary, he’ll really need to focus on finding DeAndre Hopkins, whose 104 receptions were the third highest season total of his career. However, with Fuller up in the air to play on Saturday, that puts extra pressure on the Hopkins connection to thrive. Defensively, the once top Houston defense has taken a pretty severe downturn. They house one of the worst defenses by DVOA and have allowed over 400 yards of offense in five of their seven games since the Week 10 bye.

Buffalo is 6-0-2 against the spread as visitors this season, meanwhile, the Texans are 2-6 ATS at home this year. The Bills aren’t exactly peaking at the right time but their playoff situation has been settled for a few weeks now so it’s understandable that they took it easy. I'm siding with Bills Mafia and the points.

The Titans peaked right in the middle of the season, beating the teams they were supposed to beat. However, they next ran into the Texans and Saints who nearly foiled their playoff hopes. While they still played well as the season winded down, can we trust Ryan Tannehill to be a playoff-caliber quarterback? Over his last seven games, he has a 16/2 TD/Int which is elite-level play, which we haven’t seen from the 31-year-old before. Behind him, Derrick Henry is in tip-top shape after scoring three times in Week 17,  so it’s likely the Titans rely on him heavily. Defensively, Tennessee has allowed just 17.6 points per game on the road this year.

While New England has just four losses this year, they had an interesting end to the regular season. People are starting to truly doubt if father time is catching up with Tom Brady, and it’s been relatively warranted over their 3-3 record to close out the season. While Sony Michel, James White, and Rex Burkhead haven’t exactly been the beacon of success either, the Patriots will do whatever they can to get one of them going. Defensively, this unit is still one of the best in the league, led by Stephon Gilmore. He alone changes how team’s attack through the air, causing them to rely on secondary options, which should only benefit the Pats.

Expect this game to come down to who can run more effectively, which obviously benefits the Titans. However, give the defensive benefit to New England as they’re the top defense by DVOA. Add in that a winter storm is supposed to roll into the the area on Saturday, which should lead to some interesting drives, but ultimately, I expect it to be a low-scoring game.

The Seahawks might have lost Chris Carson just before the playoffs, but they still house one of the most electric quarterbacks in Russell Wilson. In four career wild card games, Wilson is 3-1 with a 5/1 TD/Int, so his experience in the first round should come in handy. Marshawn Lynch isn’t too reliable, at 33, so the passing game will likely be the main gameplay for Seattle.

The Eagles just won their division in Week 17 after reeling off four-straight wins to end the year. Carson Wentz has been lights out, while Miles Sanders has taken another step as a rookie. Defensively, the Eagles run defense is one of the league’s best, so look for Philly to trust Wentz early.

The Seahawks haven’t had an issue scoring early on the road, averaging 13.6 ppg in the first half this season, meanwhile Philadelphia averages just under 10 ppg in the opening half at home. Look for Wilson and the passing game to make a few big plays that gives Seattle the first-half advantage.