This Year's Fantasy Football Breakout Wide Receiver Is...

September 8, 2022

DeVonta Smith is a breakout candidate for 2022 fantasy football leagues. Kyle analyzes Smith's draft ranking, current ADP, and fantasy football sleeper value.

One of the biggest things the fantasy community has been looking high and wide for all summer is who the next breakout wide receiver will be. This has been a relative phenomenon in the fantasy landscape the last few seasons after Stefon Diggs won many people a fantasy championship in 2020 and Cooper Kupp shattered the WR ceiling altogether in 2021.

Since running backs tend to dry up relatively quickly in a fantasy draft, the teams who get two backs early can often be in prime position if those RBs stay healthy and they are able to spot who the potential breakout WRs are in the middle rounds of the draft. Many of the teams who hit on Cooper Kupp or Ja'Marr Chase last season also had Jonathan Taylor or Travis Kelce on their rosters. In 2021, there are several WRs going in the first round, including Justin Jefferson, Kupp, Chase, and sometimes Stefon Diggs, meaning they are all obvious hits and not bargains anymore.

Rather than give some of the same names that others have projected to be the next breakout WR this season like Courtland Sutton, Mike Williams, and the much polarized Gabriel Davis, I'd like to look a little deeper into the WR pool and give you a name of a player that no one is talking about. While this player may not fit the bill for a true X-receiver in the NFL since he is just 6'0 and 170 lbs, he is a player who averaged over 14 yards per reception in his rookie season and was the first wide receiver to win the Heisman since Desmond Howard in 1991.

This player of course is Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver: DeVonta Smith. While it may not be realistic for him to have the same type of 2022 season as the other potential breakout WRs listed above, he can be an incredible value for your fantasy teams this season.

Why DeVonta Smith is Flying Under the Radar in Fantasy Football

One of the biggest mistakes that the fantasy community seems to make every offseason is looking at the run/pass ratios of all 32 teams from the prior season and thinking they will be the same for each team in the upcoming season. The Philadelphia Eagles ran the most rushing plays of any team in the NFL last season with a 52.7% running rate to only a 47.3% passing rate. Yet this offseason, the Eagles gave up the 18th and 101st overall picks for A.J. Brown and also locked him up to a four-year, $100 million contract extension.

This gives the Eagles' offense a fantastic trio of pass catchers with Brown, Smith, and the unheralded Dallas Goedert. Arguably only San Francisco has a better trio of WRs plus TE with Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle.

The larger winner of this off-season sweepstakes was none other than incumbent Eagles quarterback, Jalen Hurts. While Howie Roseman did hedge his bets a little at QB by trading one of Philly's 2022 firsts for the Saints' 2023 first-round pick in what should be a loaded QB class, the Eagles are clearly invested in his success for 2022.

Head coach Nick Sirianni is now in his second season at the helm as is offensive coordinator Shane Steichen. Having the same continuity in the same system in Year 2 is big for Hurts, while inevitably good for Smith as well.

Given all of the above factors, it would seem silly to suggest that the Philadelphia Eagles want to run the ball at a 52.7% rate as they did in 2021 without an established alpha running back on the roster. Currently, their RB room features a talented but often banged-up Miles Sanders, a promising pass-catching prospect in Kenneth Gainwell, and a short-yardage bowling ball in Boston Scott.

If the Eagles' offense wants to ascend to higher levels in 2022 with Jalen Hurts, they are going to need to pass the ball a lot more to keep pace with Dak Prescott, Tom Brady, Matthew Stafford, Aaron Rodgers, Kyler Murray, and even Kirk Cousins.

While the gauntlet of QBs in the NFC is nowhere as harrowing as it is in the AFC, it's obvious to all that the NFL is becoming more of a passing league with more games feeling like track meets. The Eagles will need to get on that level to consistently compete with the other elite quarterbacks in the league.

It is also important to factor in that due to Ja'Marr Chase's incredible rookie season in 2021, Smith's impressive rookie performance was largely overshadowed. In 2021, Smith had 64 receptions for 916 yards and five TDs. With the acquisition of Brown in Philadelphia, Smith will never see another team's top cornerback unless Brown is out of the lineup for that week. This is a big advantage for Smith that many aren't considering. Just remember that at this time last year, Robert Woods was being drafted mostly ahead of Cooper Kupp in drafts.

Metrics that Predict Wide Receiver Breakouts

When looking at how others have Smith ranked in terms of metrics around the fantasy industry, Reception Perception graded Smith as above the 75th percentile against man coverage, and 84th percentile against press coverage. Smith also featured a target share of over 22 percent last season and was very efficient in an offense with a very tiny passing pie.

According to Shawn Siegele over at Rotoviz, "Smith won the Heisman trophy in 2020, was drafted No. 10 overall, and then went on to finish No. 15 in air yards on a team that tied for last in pass plays per 60 minutes and he's still being selected as around the WR39 in fantasy." Other prominent talking heads have also noticed that he is an incredible value.

Smith is currently going around the WR36-39 range on most fantasy sites and in about the eighth round. While this may be a tad low compared to the breakout WRs that typically come a few rounds earlier, we have to consider that the cost to acquire Smith is much cheaper in drafts and therefore less risky for our teams as well.

Wide receivers also tend to improve the most from Year One to Year Two when they have a full NFL season under their belt. In years past, we have often looked at Year Three as the time when a wide receiver would break out, but they have begun happening earlier and earlier and Year Two is likely more of an accurate benchmark.

DeVonta Smith 2022 Fantasy Football Outlook

While DeVonta Smith finishing outside of the top-12 this season would likely not be considered a breakout by most, if he finishes in the top 15-18 range of wide receivers, most fantasy managers would be quite happy with that if they took him as the WR39 in their draft.

Smith runs a versatile route tree and can stretch the field while also being great at finding the hole in the zone and running good underneath routes. With defensive coordinators focusing most of their attention on A.J. Brown, Smith will continue to fly under the radar and win fantasy managers some leagues this year.

"He's like Casper the Friendly Ghost," Dallas Goedert recently told the Philadelphia Media. "People be pressing him, he throws a shimmy and just disappears." This reality is all too apparent in fantasyland where Smith is often available into the eighth and ninth rounds of drafts.

While we don't want to wish injury or ill on any player, if A.J. Brown were to miss any time at all, Smith would immediately become a top-12 start in just about all formats. In fantasy, we aren't always as good at projecting passing volume and run/pass ratios as well as we think we are. Sometimes it's easier to just bet on talent and let the rest sort it's way out.

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