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Mike looks at three sneaky fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups for starting pitchers in Week 7 (2024) off to hot starts and if they can sustain their success.
Injuries continue to pile up for starting pitchers across baseball. Most recently, both Joe Musgrove (elbow) and Grayson Rodriguez (shoulder) were placed on the injured list.
With many fantasy managers scrambling to find replacements, there are some unexpected players who have stepped up to become fantasy-relevant. They include Jameson Taillon, Gavin Stone, and Reese Olson.
Let’s dig into the stats for these three starters and discuss if they can sustain their early-season success.
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Jameson Taillon, Chicago Cubs
Taillon wasn’t a disaster during his two seasons with the Yankees, but he didn’t do much to get fantasy managers excited about rostering him. His best campaign with the team came in 2022, when he finished with a 3.91 ERA and a 3.94 FIP. Still, he had just a 20.7 percent strikeout rate that year.
Last year marked Taillon’s first campaign with the Cubs, and it was underwhelming, to say the least. His strikeout rate was again disappointing at 21.4 percent, while his 4.84 ERA was supported by a 4.61 FIP.
The good news for the Cubs is that Taillon has been spectacular this season, with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.88 WHIP through four starts. One of the keys to his success has been his 4.1 percent barrel rate allowed. He has also shown good control with a 5.3 percent walk rate.
Jameson Taillon, Nasty 80mph Sweeper. 😨 pic.twitter.com/keGWJpqDE7
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2024
As exciting as Taillon’s start has been, he still only has a 17.0 percent strikeout rate. He is throwing his cutter more, but even that only has a 13.9 percent whiff rate. His FIP also sits at 3.53, so his ERA should be in line for serious regression. As good as Taillon has been, he should only be viewed as a viable streaming option when he has a favorable matchup.
Gavin Stone, Los Angeles Dodgers
Stone missed a lot of bats in the minors. He posted a 35.3 percent strikeout rate at Double-A in 2022. He followed that up with a 27.8 percent strikeout rate at Triple-A in 2023. He made his way up to the Dodgers in 2023, but he only had a 14.5 percent strikeout rate across 31 innings. When it was all said and done, he finished with a 9.00 ERA and a 6.64 FIP during his tenure with the Dodgers.
A problem that Stone had last season was that he gave up eight home runs during his time in the majors. That was odd for him, given that he wasn’t taken deep often in the minors. Over 100.2 innings a Triple-A in 2023, he allowed only 12 home runs.
Stone has gone back to limiting the long ball this year, giving up two home runs over 31 innings. He still isn’t missing many bats, though, with his 17.4 percent strikeout rate.
Gavin Stone's 4th and 5th Ks. pic.twitter.com/OifNugXnRj
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 4, 2024
Working in Stone’s favor is that he has a great lineup to provide him with run support. That should afford him added opportunities to accumulate wins. However, he’ll need to stay in the game long enough to do so. His 9.8 percent walk rate and 1.35 WHIP are a concern. Much like Taillon, Stone’s limited strikeout upside makes him better suited as a streaming option only to use when matchups suit him.
Reese Olson, Detroit Tigers
Prior to last year, Olson had never pitched above Double-A. He then made just 10 starts at Triple-A before logging 103.2 total innings with the Tigers. He held his own, recording a 3.99 ERA and a 4.01 WHIP. The key to his success was a 1.12 WHIP that was aided by a 7.8 percent walk rate. He also contributed to the strikeout department with his 24.4 percent strikeout rate.
Olson entered this season locked into the starting rotation for the Tigers. He has been even better than last year, posting a 2.70 ERA and a 2.74 FIP. He has yet to allow a home run over 33.1 innings, and he has given up a 6.4 percent barrel rate compared to his 10.5 percent barrel rate allowed last year.
Olson has a good mix of pitches, throwing a four-seamer, slider, changeup, and sinker. He doesn’t use his curveball much, but he does break it out more versus left-handed batters. He has thrown his changeup 23.8 percent of the time this season, compared to 15.1 percent last season. Increasing the frequency of that pitch is noteworthy, given that he has a 50.8 percent whiff rate on it this year.
With Olson doing such a good job of limiting home runs and keeping hitters off base, he has the potential to be more than just a viable streaming option. Of the three pitchers we have discussed, he is the one who is arguably the most appealing moving forward.
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