June 30, 2016

Pierre Camus makes bold predictions for the 2016 fantasy football season by analyzing player and coach movement during the off-season and breaking down last year's statistics.

Predictions are like opinions - everybody's got one. Actually, they're like something else too, but we keep it clean here on Rotoballer.com. Of course, if all predictions came true, then Miss Cleo wouldn't have had such a thriving business. Nevertheless, here are six bold predictions for the upcoming football season that will almost certainly come true to some degree or another (don't bet on that).

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Fantasy Football Bold Predictions

RG3 won't start more than 10 games for the Browns

So, we're expecting a player who sat on the bench all of last season to enter a known quarterback graveyard and suddenly recapture the magic from his rookie year? Believe me, I want to be optimistic and I would love to see RG3 lead the Browns to the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. But I can't bring myself to believe it. Not only are the playoffs a long shot, there's a good chance Griffin doesn't finish the season as the starter.

Last year was a non-factor for Griffin, which could either leave him rested or rusted, depending on your view. He also missed seven games in 2014 with various injuries after missing three games in 2013. Among those injuries, Griffin has suffered a partially torn LCL and ACL, a dislocated ankle and a concussion. Then there's the fact he was permanently benched because he simply was not developing as a pocket passer. I'd say both are equally concerning, but keep in mind that we can't simply point to the Redskins franchise and blame them. After all, Kirk Cousins did pretty well for himself in that same system last year while leading them to a division championship.

Cleveland itself is a continual disaster on offense. What supporting cast does RG3 have to alleviate the pressure of a fan base dying to finally be a winner? Isaiah Crowell as a feature back. A rookie as the #1 wide receiver. Gary Barnridge as the best returning offensive threat. Backup QB Josh McCown actually didn't fare too poorly last season, with a 63.7% Cmp% and 12-4 TD/INT ratio. His 1-7 record is what kept the Browns searching for an upgrade. Even if RG3 actually stays healthy, the chances of him leading this Browns team to a winning record don't seem much better. For the sake of Browns fans, there's no need to retread all the failed names of the past that have tried to be the next savior for the franchise. Let's just say that by the end of this season, Kelly Holcomb might not look too bad.

There won't be a single San Francisco player worth starting on fantasy teams

The genius of Chip Kelly is starting to sound more like a elaborate charade. He is finding out the hard way that the pro game isn't the same as college and you can't just recruit players to fit your system. Kelly's curious decision to get rid of every one of the Eagles' best skill players turned out exactly as you might expect. Philadelphia turned the ball over 65 times the last two years - more than any other team. At minus-five last season, the Eagles were tied with none other than the 49ers. He now finds himself in San Francisco with even less talent and more question marks.

Colin Kaepernick could be a perfect fit in Kelly's offensive scheme. Or he could be traded before the season. Or he could sit on the bench all year and watch Blaine Gabbert put up mediocre numbers like he did last year. Either way, Kaepernick hasn't been the same since Jim Harbaugh's departure and his effective 2013-2014 seasons seem like a distant memory. Gabbert is happy just to be in the league at this point and seems like a poor man's Alex Smith - a game manager in the purest sense.

A list of the 49ers past receivers reads like a Hall of Fame roster: Jerry Rice, Dwight Clark, Terrell Owens. Their current receiving corps resembles a CFL roster with the likes of Jerome Simpson, Bruce Ellington, Quinton Patton, DeAndrew White. After Torrey Smith, there is nobody even worth considering in fantasy drafts. Smith is a legitimate receiving threat, but will undoubtedly be held back by the questionable quarterback play. He could make a decent WR3, but in a standard format, don't expect Smith to outproduce 24 other NFL receivers. He was the 47th ranked fantasy receiver last year, after all.

Carlos Hyde is the best bet to be fantasy-relevant, but he has absolutely no track record of success to point to. Hyde missed nine games last year with a foot injury and produced 470 yards on 115 carries. He only managed 333 yards in his rookie year, so expecting him to suddenly emerge as a 1,000 yard rusher seems overly optimistic. Even so, Hyde doesn't possess game-breaking speed and will run mostly north-south. If anything, his style is reminiscent of DeMarco Murray. What makes us believe that Kelly will suddenly know how to use the skill-set of a running back like him after Murray was such a bust last year?

The Texans' offense will be maddeningly inconsistent

Lamar Miller is going to have a breakout season! Brock Osweiler will get to prove himself as a franchise QB! Will Fuller is going to be a top sleeper! If you believe all these things are going to happen in 2016, then take off that red, white, and blue Texans hat you're wearing and face reality. Lamar Miller should definitely get more carries and has a great chance to crack 1,000 yards and around 8-10 TD. Expecting him to put up Arian Foster type numbers isn't reasonable though. Foster had a power/speed combo that made him a great short yardage and goal line option, resulting in 41 TD between 2010-2012. Miller is a pure speedster and will rely on big runs to score. Fantasy owners may also need to consider that there is a reason the Dolphins never subjected him to 20+ carries in a game. Miller's promising 4.6 Y/A drops to 3.7 in the fourth quarter for his career. From a fantasy standpoint, he was very much boom-or-bust last season, contributing less than 75 YD total with no TD in eight games. That would be half the time. Sure, things could be different in Houston, but that doesn't mean they will be significantly better.

Brock Osweiler is still a complete unknown, especially entering a new offense surrounded largely by new skill players. He has a bonafide Pro Bowl receiver in DeAndre Hopkins to rely on, but next in line is either oft-injured, under-sized Cecil Shorts or unproven Jaelen Strong. That leads us to Will Fuller, who was drafted to help that very situation. Sure, he could use his blazing speed to claim a starting job as a rookie. Or he could experience the growing pains that many rookie receivers go through. He will likely put up some highlight-worthy plays on occasion, but he will disappear at times too. Keep in mind that it is still unclear who will be the starting tight end in Houston. The best receiving option may wind up being UFA Stephen Anderson out of Cal. In the case of Osweiler, Miller, Fuller or any Texans player other than Hopkins, temper your draft-day expectations. Expecting a player to adjust to a new team or system immediately is one thing. Expecting an entire offense to do so simultaneously is quite another. The Arian Foster/Andre Johnson era is officially over, which was bound to happen. The Miller/Hopkins era may wind up being just as good, but it also may need some time to get off the ground. Speaking of Foster...

Arian Foster will be a fantasy starter and top-15 RB

He is being left for dead in many drafts over the minor fact that he isn't actually signed with an NFL team yet. That will change as soon as training camp starts and the first injury hits. Either that or one of these teams is going to look at what's on the field and then make a quick phone call to the GM asking if Arian is still available (how long are the Giants going to roll out Rashad Jennings and Andre Williams?). The Dolphins are the only ones known to have made contact so far, but they're going to wait and see if Jay Ajayi can handle the load. The Redskins, Giants and Browns all could use an upgrade or at least a veteran to compete in the backfield. Regardless, there should surely be a use for a former Pro Bowl running back who hasn't yet hit the wrong side of 30. Associates close to Foster have declared that he is physically fit and ready for training camp, so there's that. Remember, just a year ago in 2014, Foster averaged 4.8 Y/A and finished with 1,573 YScm and 13 TD in just 13 games. Don't bury him, he isn't dead yet! I can just see him in teal and white, running in Adam Gase's offense toward another Pro Bowl season... then again, I'm a delusional Dolphins fan.

Devonta Freeman won't be a top-20 RB

Freeman went undrafted in most fantasy leagues last season and in the leagues he was taken, he was no higher than a RB4 taken as a flyer. With rookie Tevin Coleman expected to claim the starting job, Freeman was given little chance to make an impact after producing just 248 yards and 3.8 Y/A in his first season. He came out of nowhere to record four 100-yard games in the first half of the season and finished with 1,056 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns. The problem is that ALL of his 100-yard games came in the first half, as did nine of his TD. In weeks 9-16, Freeman totaled 347 YD and managed just 3.07 Y/A. Once defenses knew what was coming, he couldn't find the space he did earlier in the season.

Tevin Coleman still looms as a part of the offense as well. If he can figure out how to run while actually holding onto the ball (three fumbles in 87 carries is not good) then he will get more looks this year. Remember, he was drafted in the third round to do what Freeman couldn't in his rookie season. He did manage 4.5 yards per attempt in those 87 carries, so a little experience could give him the same boost that Freeman experienced after his first year. The dreaded RBBC is certainly possible in this scenario, which would handicap each player's value. Freeman is still worth drafting, but don't buy too heavily into his first-half performance or consider him as a RB1.

Martellus Bennett will be a top-10 TE

As a Fins fan, it pains me to give credit to the Patriots in any way, so don't take this last one lightly. Rob Gronkowski is not just the top tight end in football, he may be worth the top pick in fantasy drafts if not for Tom Brady's pending suspension. Normally, a second tight end is not worth looking at in fantasy leagues, but this is a unique situation. Gronk and Bennett will give the Patriots the two-headed monster they had back when Aaron Hernandez was putting up 910 yards and seven TD as the #2 TE. Bennett managed almost identical numbers (916-6) with Chicago in 2014 before missing five games last year in an injury-riddled season. Simple math here: Brady + Bennett = 900-6 = top-10 TE. Those numbers would have placed him seventh among tight ends last season, ahead of Travis Kelce and Antonio Gates. Go ahead and take a chance on Jared Cook learning a new offense or the Saints suddenly throwing the ball to the tight end just because Coby Fleener is in town. I'll hang my hat on the Patriots offensive expertise. Ugh...

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