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Justin's 12-team College Football Playoff prediction ahead of Week 4 of the 2025 college football season. Projections for all 12 teams, including Ohio State and Miami.
Week 4 College Football Playoff Projections
Notre Dame got the benefit of the doubt after losing in Week 1 to Miami, but a Week 3 loss to Texas A&M has dropped the Irish to 0-2, knocking the team out of the playoff field.
Who replaces them? And who replaces South Carolina, which is also out after a blowout loss to Vanderbilt? Read on for the current College Football Playoff projection heading into Week 4 of the 2025 college football season.
12. South Florida
Last Week: 12th
Yes, the Bulls got absolutely demolished by Miami this week, but for now, they still hold on to the No. 12 spot.
That hold feels more tenuous now, though. There’s no more room for error for South Florida. The wins over Boise State and Florida were good, but a 49-12 loss to Miami exposed that the Bulls are beatable. Luckily, the team doesn’t face another power conference foe, but the team probably has to win out in convincing fashion going forward.
11. Iowa State
Last Week: 11th
If the season ended right now, Iowa State would still get this spot, so right now, entering Week 4, I am still giving it to the Cyclones. I have a strong feeling, though, that the Big 12 race is about to change. Let’s talk about that real quick.
Iowa State is 4-0, but the wins have not been convincing. Other than a 55-7 win over FCS program South Dakota, each win has been by one possession. Meanwhile, the other two ranked Big 12 schools — Texas Tech and Utah — play this week. The winner of that one will have a big check on their resume and will more than likely take this spot over next week.
10. Illinois
Last Week: Not Ranked
This final at-large spot is a battle right now. I’ve gone back and forth since Saturday about whether Oklahoma or Illinois deserves the spot and finally settled on Illinois, but ask me again tomorrow, and I might have switched back to Oklahoma.
So, why the Illini at the moment over the Sooners? Both teams have been very good defensively, but Illinois feels like a more complete team on offense. Sooners quarterback John Mateer is playing out of his mind, but that’s covering up some holes in that unit. Illinois’ offense feels more sustainable thanks to a very talented group of running backs.
9. Texas
Last Week: Seventh
Texas moves down after a win because the win was a fairly bad one, with the team only defeating UTEP 27-10.
Quarterback Arch Manning scored two rushing touchdowns, but he struggled to complete passes, connecting on just 44.0 percent of his attempts. That’s unacceptable against a Conference USA team, and it speaks poorly for the Horns’ ability to compete once their SEC schedule begins.
8. Texas A&M
Last Week: Not Ranked
The Aggies make a huge leap up the playoff standings this week after going on the road and defeating Notre Dame 41-40.
Am I concerned about this Aggies defense, which has given up 20-plus points in every game? Sure! But the offense is humming, with quarterback Marcel Reed playing his way into the Heisman conversation. It’s time to take A&M for real.
7. Florida State
Last Week: Eighth
Florida State didn’t play this week, but moves up a spot because my Texas skepticism has moved the Longhorns down.
The Seminoles’ schedule sets up really well for this team to be a one or two-loss team when all is said and done. There’s just one more game against a ranked opponent, and that’s at home against Miami. Road visits to Clemson and Florida might be tough, but neither team is playing as well as their preseason expectations.
6. Oregon
Last Week: Fourth
Oregon dropping is less about Oregon and more about how impressive Miami and Georgia were this week. The Ducks defeated Northwestern 34-14 on the road. It’s not a great win, but the team did what it needed to do. Unfortunately, Georgia beat a better team while Miami destroyed arguably the best Group of Five program.
The Ducks have another shot at a blowout win this week against Oregon State, but the real game to watch is Sept. 27 against Penn State. If the Ducks go on the road and beat the Nittany Lions, they’ll jump into the top four and likely stay there.
5. LSU
Last Week: Second
This is a fairly big drop for a Tigers team that’s still undefeated, but LSU just isn’t passing the eye test this season and their season-opening win over Clemson doesn’t look nearly as good now as it did at the time.
LSU moved to 3-0 this week with a 20-10 win over Florida, but the Tigers offense just isn’t playing like a championship-level offense. Until quarterback Garrett Nussmeier starts looking like he did at the end of 2024, I can’t keep putting LSU in the top four.
4. Miami
Last Week: Sixth
We knew Miami was good, but I don’t think we knew they were this good. South Florida entered the week ranked No. 18 in the country with wins over Boise State and Florida, both ranked teams at the time that the Bulls defeated them.
Surely, this game between South Florida and Miami would be competitive, right? Nope. The Hurricanes rolled them, winning 49-12. Carson Beck completed 82.1 percent of his passes for 340 yards. Mark Fletcher Jr. rushed for 120 yards and two scores. This offense is basically unstoppable.
3. Penn State
Last Week: Third
Penn State continues to be the most boring “good” team in the nation. A non-conference schedule of Nevada, FIU, and Villanova is just embarrassingly weak, but the Nittany Lions have done what they needed to do, blowing out each opponent.
Tough games are coming. What Penn State does in those games can radically shift how we view their place in the playoff seeding battle.
2. Georgia
Last Week: Fifth
My doubts about Georgia have been answered. After only beating Austin Peay 28-6 in Week 2, there was reason to be concerned about a Week 3 road meeting with Tennessee.
Tennessee jumped out to a 21-7 lead in the first quarter, but the Bulldogs came alive after that, forcing overtime and winning 44-41 after a walk-off Josh McCray touchdown. Gunner Stockton looks like a Heisman contender. The run game is playing well. The defense might have been shredded by Joe Aguilar, but it did come up with two important interceptions.
1. Ohio State
Last Week: First
No surprise here. The defending champions moved to 3-0 with a 37-9 win over Ohio this week. After a slow-ish game against Texas to open the season, wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has broken out over the past two games and looks like the best player in college football.
The Buckeyes are going to stay at No. 1 in the rankings until they lose a game. Maybe it’s not fair to bring offseason expectations into this, but as long as last year’s champions keep winning games, you can’t justify dropping them.
First-Round CFP Matchups
- No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 LSU
- No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Oregon
- No. 10 Illinois at No. 7 Florida State
- No. 9 Texas at No. 8 Texas A&M
