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PrizePicks PGA DFS Prop Picks - Over/Under Props for the Cognizant Classic (Round 1)

Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Cognizant (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is back in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.

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This week, we're at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic! The opening salvo of the Florida Swing has held the distinction of playing as the toughest non-major venue we've had on the PGA Tour over the last decade, and with water hazards and penalty strokes lurking around every corner of this property, the Cognizant serves as the perfect starting course for what viewers should expect over the next month in the Sunshine State. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 29.

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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks

Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.

 

Russell Henley MORE Than 12.5 Greens in Regulation

PGA National isn't a venue I'd typically be looking to target the "over" in Greens in Regulation or Birdies/Better markets, but recent changes made to this layout in 2024 suggest tournament organizers are looking to steer slightly away from this course's reputation as one of the most difficult test on the PGA Tour. The 10th hole, for example, has been turned from a 508-yard Par 4 (the second most difficult on the course), into a benign 530-yard Par 5 which is likely to play well under par for the week.

Additionally, Rory McIlroy commented in his pre-tournament press conference about how rough has been largely cut back, greens are softer than before, and even a few bunkers have been taken away. All of these reports lead me to believe PGA National won't show nearly the same teeth we've seen in years past (at least early in the week), and scores will certainly be out there for those who play well.

All of this is not to say that I'll be hammering every over on the aforementioned GIR/Birdie or Better markets, as the abundance of water hazards on this course are still capable of swallowing up anyone without a reliable ball-striking profile. But I do believe players who have proven capable of navigating similarly penal layouts will be rewarded with improved scoring conditions.

There is perhaps nobody in this field that fits this profile better than Russell Henley, who has recorded finishes of third and eighth in each of his last two starts in Palm Beach Gardens and rates out as one of the field's premier tee-to-green entities. Henley ranks fourth in my positional driving model, and among all PGA Tour members, sits in the 92nd percentile in GIR % from this week's key approach range of 150-200 yards. Notably, Russell also comes into the week on an incredible run of 18/20 starts gaining strokes on approach, and has never lost strokes ball striking around PGA National in nine starts. He's got every tool required to conquer the troubles that remain around these links, and frankly, I'm surprised to see his GIR line priced at the same number as much less proven ball-strikers (Horschel, Noren, Min Woo, etc.).

 

Corey Conners MORE than Chad Ramey - Birdies or Better Matchup

We used a similar line of reasoning to cash Stephan Jaeger's Birdie or Better Matchup against Justin Suh in Mexico, and this week, PrizePicks has once again matched up two golfers in vastly different stratospheres from a ball-striking standpoint. Corey Conners has a case as maybe the most reliable tee-to-green entity in this field: rating out inside the top three in Total Ball-Striking over the last three, six, and twelve months, whilst Chad Ramey currently sits outside the top 110 in this field in SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created, and SG: Tee-to-Green.

Ramey does have the advantage of a particularly hot putter: having gained a combined 6.7 strokes on the greens over his last two starts. However, PGA National is far from the wide-open hit-and-giggle in which Ramey recorded his best finish in nearly five months last week. The Mississippi State graduate has lost over three stokes per tournament with his irons over his last five starts on Tour, and with the peril lurking around the green complexes of PGA National, it's unlikely he'll have putter in his hand for any more than par on a majority of these holes.

Of course, in these Birdie or Better markets, the chance always exists for putting to play an inordinately large factor in the outcome. But when the #1 player in this field in Green in Regulation % is matchup up against #106, I'm more than willing to take my chances on the guy who projects for an exponentially higher volume of scoring chances.

 

Other Recommendations

  • Daniel Berger MORE than Ryan Fox - Birdies or Better Matchup
  • Luke List LESS than 70.5 Strokes
  • Matt Kuchar LESS than 12.5 Greens in Regulation

 

Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play

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Tyler Soderstrom

Returns to A's Lineup
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Sidelined on Wednesday with Toe Injury
Jaylen Waddle

Questionable for Week 3 Against Buffalo
Joe Burrow

Bengals Not Closing the Door on Joe Burrow Returning This Year
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LaNorris Sellers to Play Against Missouri?
Kyle Tucker

Progress has "Plateaued"
Isaac Paredes

has "Outside Chance" to Return This Weekend
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Kaidon Salter Expected To Start for Colorado on Saturday
Willson Contreras

Goes on 10-Day Injured List, Done for Season
Justin Fields

Ruled Out for Week 3 Due to Concussion
Jayden Reed

Out Indefinitely After Foot and Shoulder Surgery
Washington Commanders

Preston Smith Signs With Commanders
Trey Jemison III

Joins Knicks on Two-Way Contract
Kevin McCullar Jr.

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Matt Ryan

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Alex Len Signs Exhibit 9 Deal With Knicks
Nickeil Alexander-Walker

Expected to Take on Larger Offensive Role With Hawks
Thomas Sorber

Undergoes Surgery
Dominic Canzone

Has Five-Hit, Three-Homer Game Tuesday
Cal Raleigh

Sets Single-Season Home Run Record for a Switch-Hitter
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Undergoes Clavicle and Foot Surgeries, Out for Foreseeable Future
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Zach Neto

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Out on Tuesday, Dealing With "Significant" Ankle Sprain
Aaron Jones Sr.

Vikings Place Aaron Jones Sr. on Injured Reserve With Hamstring Injury
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Christian Kirk

Expected to Return in Week 3
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Diego Pavia Seeking Another Year of Eligibility
Tarik Skubal

on Track to Start Thursday
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Kevorian Barnes Questionable Against SMU
Bo Bichette

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Tosan Evbuomwan

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Bones Hyland

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Kobe Bufkin

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Trey Yesavage

Sets Franchise Strikeout Record On Monday
Yordan Alvarez

To Receive MRI For Sprained Left Ankle On Tuesday
Willson Contreras

Exits Early Monday With Right-Biceps Tightness
Yordan Alvarez

Exits With Ankle Sprain
Brock Bowers

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Day-to-Day With Ankle Injury
Logan O'Hoppe

Activated Off Seven-Day Injured List
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Denton Mateychuk Dealing With Groin Issue
Bo Horvat

Fine for Training Camp
Kirby Dach

on Track to Be Ready for Opening Night
Jose Altuve

Returns Against Rangers
J.J. McCarthy

Expected to Miss 2-4 Weeks With High-Ankle Sprain
J.J. McCarthy

Likely Out for Week 3 With High-Ankle Sprain
Jean Silva

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
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' Week 3 Status in Doubt
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Wins His Second UFC Fight
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Wins Back-To-Back Fights
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Gets Back In The Win Column
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Suffers Second-Round TKO
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Extends His Win Streak With A Brutal TKO
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Earns his First Bristol Cup Series Victory
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Chase Briscoe

Collects his Third Top-10 Finish at Bristol
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Strong Top-Five Bristol Performance Advances him to the Playoffs
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Indiana's Lee Beebe Jr. Out for Season with Knee Injury
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Dennis Schroder Named EuroBasket MVP
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Giants to Promote Bryce Eldridge
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Progressing in Recovery
Jonathan Kuminga

Receives New Offer From Warriors
Kenneth Walker III

Bounces Back with Big Week 2 Performance
Bijan Robinson

Rushes for 143 Yards in Week 2
Justin Fields

Currently in Concussion Protocol
Cincinnati Bengals

Bengals Calling Around to Available Free-Agent Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow

to Undergo Surgery, Out at Least Three Months
Emil Heineman

Aiming to Take the "Next Step" This Season
Braeden Cootes

Good to Go for Camp
Ivan Fedotov

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Garrett Crochet

Punches Out 12 in Win
Cole Ragans

to Return on Wednesday
George Kirby

Strikes Out 14 in Win
Quentin Grimes

Still Not Close to a New Contract Agreement
Joel Embiid

"Looking Slender, Spry and in Positive Spirits"
Ty Gibbs

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Chase Elliott

Despite Crashing Out at Bristol, Chase Elliott Advances to Round of 12
Austin Dillon

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Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Fails to Advance to Round of 12
Josh Berry

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Drew Allar Plays Mediocre Game In Blowout Win
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Samuel Girard

Skates With Non-Contact Jersey
Mackenzie Blackwood

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Spencer Knight

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Chase Elliott

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NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Not as Strong at Bristol as Other Short Tracks
Alex Bowman

Needs to Win to Make Round of 12
Ross Chastain

has Never Led at Bristol but Has Been Pretty Consistent
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Richmond Speed Unlikely to Carry Over to Bristol
Josh Berry

Might Run Well at Bristol, but Almost Certainly Won't Win to Advance
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Jaxson Moi a Game-Time Decision for Tennessee on Saturday
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