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Welcome to our PrizePicks PGA DFS prop picks for the Cognizant (Round 1). The 2024 PGA Tour season is back in full swing, and to celebrate, PrizePicks has an extensive selection of PGA props to take advantage of! PrizePicks is a great DFS props site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or singular stats. The goal is to build a 2-player, 3-player, 4-player, or 5-player entry and then select whether or not you want to play for the power play or the flex play. On the power play, you will need to be correct on each of your selections to win, and on the flex play, you will have a little more wiggle room for a chance to win some money back.
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This week, we're at PGA National for the Cognizant Classic! The opening salvo of the Florida Swing has held the distinction of playing as the toughest non-major venue we've had on the PGA Tour over the last decade, and with water hazards and penalty strokes lurking around every corner of this property, the Cognizant serves as the perfect starting course for what viewers should expect over the next month in the Sunshine State. I and the entire Rotoballer PGA staff have put out 1,000s of words on the course, key stats, and field this week, so this article won't be focused on the minutiae of projecting outright winners or DFS pivot plays. Instead, I'll be solely focused on a few money-making opportunities I've found in PrizePicks' unique markets to help you build your bankroll as the PGA Tour season gets into full swing! Today's plays are specifically for round one on Thursday, February 29.
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Single Stat PGA Totals - DFS Prop Picks
Prize Picks prop totals are not always available first thing in the morning, so check back during the day as other props may be added during the day.
Russell Henley MORE Than 12.5 Greens in Regulation
PGA National isn't a venue I'd typically be looking to target the "over" in Greens in Regulation or Birdies/Better markets, but recent changes made to this layout in 2024 suggest tournament organizers are looking to steer slightly away from this course's reputation as one of the most difficult test on the PGA Tour. The 10th hole, for example, has been turned from a 508-yard Par 4 (the second most difficult on the course), into a benign 530-yard Par 5 which is likely to play well under par for the week.
Additionally, Rory McIlroy commented in his pre-tournament press conference about how rough has been largely cut back, greens are softer than before, and even a few bunkers have been taken away. All of these reports lead me to believe PGA National won't show nearly the same teeth we've seen in years past (at least early in the week), and scores will certainly be out there for those who play well.
All of this is not to say that I'll be hammering every over on the aforementioned GIR/Birdie or Better markets, as the abundance of water hazards on this course are still capable of swallowing up anyone without a reliable ball-striking profile. But I do believe players who have proven capable of navigating similarly penal layouts will be rewarded with improved scoring conditions.
There is perhaps nobody in this field that fits this profile better than Russell Henley, who has recorded finishes of third and eighth in each of his last two starts in Palm Beach Gardens and rates out as one of the field's premier tee-to-green entities. Henley ranks fourth in my positional driving model, and among all PGA Tour members, sits in the 92nd percentile in GIR % from this week's key approach range of 150-200 yards. Notably, Russell also comes into the week on an incredible run of 18/20 starts gaining strokes on approach, and has never lost strokes ball striking around PGA National in nine starts. He's got every tool required to conquer the troubles that remain around these links, and frankly, I'm surprised to see his GIR line priced at the same number as much less proven ball-strikers (Horschel, Noren, Min Woo, etc.).
Corey Conners MORE than Chad Ramey - Birdies or Better Matchup
We used a similar line of reasoning to cash Stephan Jaeger's Birdie or Better Matchup against Justin Suh in Mexico, and this week, PrizePicks has once again matched up two golfers in vastly different stratospheres from a ball-striking standpoint. Corey Conners has a case as maybe the most reliable tee-to-green entity in this field: rating out inside the top three in Total Ball-Striking over the last three, six, and twelve months, whilst Chad Ramey currently sits outside the top 110 in this field in SG: Approach, Birdie Chances Created, and SG: Tee-to-Green.
Ramey does have the advantage of a particularly hot putter: having gained a combined 6.7 strokes on the greens over his last two starts. However, PGA National is far from the wide-open hit-and-giggle in which Ramey recorded his best finish in nearly five months last week. The Mississippi State graduate has lost over three stokes per tournament with his irons over his last five starts on Tour, and with the peril lurking around the green complexes of PGA National, it's unlikely he'll have putter in his hand for any more than par on a majority of these holes.
Of course, in these Birdie or Better markets, the chance always exists for putting to play an inordinately large factor in the outcome. But when the #1 player in this field in Green in Regulation % is matchup up against #106, I'm more than willing to take my chances on the guy who projects for an exponentially higher volume of scoring chances.
Other Recommendations
- Daniel Berger MORE than Ryan Fox - Birdies or Better Matchup
- Luke List LESS than 70.5 Strokes
- Matt Kuchar LESS than 12.5 Greens in Regulation
Overall recommendation for this play: Power Play
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Win Big With RotoBaller
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— Joe Nicely (@JoeNicely) June 28, 2020
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