RADIO
Welcome to the Week 1 main slate edition of RotoBaller's NFL DFS Bargain Bin, where the goal is to touch on some potentially mispriced players across the industry who find themselves in favorable matchups and/or suddenly expanded roles.
Each week, I’ll give you my thoughts on where there may be some value spots to exploit, and on this season-opening slate, I'm glad to report there is an abundance of value-salary players on Yahoo, FanDuel, and DraftKings.
In addition to offering multiple candidates at each position, I'll also list at least one more player to consider, along with some site-specific value plays when applicable.
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NFL DFS Bargain Bin Intro
Before we go NFL DFS Bargain Bin hunting, a few particulars about format and content.
The nature of the beast with value plays is at least a modest amount (and sometimes substantially more) of risk. Therefore, the Bargain Bin may prove to be a bit more of a roller-coaster ride on some slates than your typical “tout” article! Naturally, that doesn’t mean there isn’t an upside to be had. All of these selections are therefore suitable for GPPs and can also often serve as solid cash game plays, while often helping you accommodate multiple higher-priced studs into your lineup.
Typically, I’ll suggest players that are value-priced across three major DFS sites (DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo). However, there are certainly occasions where one or more sites price a player significantly lower than others. Whenever possible, I’ll typically at least note those players as an “XYZ site special.”
This article is by no means intended to serve as an exhaustive list of all value options for the week. Rather, it’s meant to take a deeper dive into those I feel offer some of the best combinations of savings and upside.
The goal is to recommend truly affordable players, as opposed to, say, a player priced just $300-$400 away from the highest-priced option at his position. I don’t have set-in-stone price limits in mind for each site, but I do consider legitimate affordability a very important criterion.
Quarterback DFS Value Plays
Derek Carr, NO vs. TEN | DK: $5,200, FD: $7,000, Yahoo: $25
Carr has by all accounts seemingly acclimated quickly to his new teammates and surroundings after nine seasons with the Raiders to start his career. The veteran won't have Alvin Kamara to open the season due to the running back's suspension, but he won't lack for pass-catching weapons with a healthy Michael Thomas, the dynamic Chris Olave, a potential Darren-Waller-in-training in Juwan Johnson and the speedy Rashid Shaheed. Veteran back Jamaal Williams also brings stability to the ground game and can serve as an occasional safety valve out of the backfield, and in the opener, Carr gets a crack at a Titans defense that gave up plenty of production through the air a year ago.
Tennessee allowed an NFL-high 274.8 passing yards per game a year ago, including 290.8 passing yards per road contest. The Titans also surrendered the eighth-highest yards per completion (10.6, including 10.9 on the road), an NFL-high 4,931 passing yards and an AFC-high 29 touchdown passes. Carr has always had a knack for the deep ball -- he's recorded double-digit 40+-yard completions in three of the past four seasons alone -- making him a very appealing candidate to attack Tennessee's vulnerabilities with.
Baker Mayfield, TB at MIN | DK: $4,900, FD: $6,300, Yahoo: $24
Mayfield already has it difficult perception-wise given how he's fallen considerably short of his top overall pick pedigree in the last few years. He's now under even more of a microscope than usual thanks to the fact he's getting first crack at replacing a surefire Hall of Famer in Tom Brady, but like Carr, Mayfield walks into a pretty appealing situation in his new locale. The receiver cupboard is far from bare with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin still helming the depth chart, ultra-speedy rookie Trey Palmer set to potentially take the top off defenses, and promising second-year targets Rachaad White and Cade Otton also on hand.
Factoring in an outstanding pass-catching back in Chase Edmonds and a Week 1 matchup versus a Viking defense that gave up its fair share of yards a year ago, and Mayfield should have a solid chance of justifying his modest salaries. The Vikings allowed an NFC-high 265.6 passing yards per game last season, including 280 per home contest. Minnesota also tied for fourth-most yards per completion allowed (11.1) and the second-most passing yards overall to QBs (4,756). The Vikes then allowed veteran cornerback Patrick Peterson to depart to Pittsburgh, and he was one of the secondary's most effective cover men last year with five interceptions and 15 defensed passes overall while surrendering just a 44.4 QB rating in primary coverage.
ALSO CONSIDER: Russell Wilson, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $5,900, FD: $7,300, Yahoo: $23
Running Back DFS Value Plays
J.K. Dobbins, BAL vs. HOU | DK: $6,600, FD: $6,500, Yahoo: $21
There's simply not a lot of fantasy buzz around Dobbins as the disgruntled back enters his contract year, but he could make for a very rewarding Week 1 play at his reasonable salary. The fourth-year pro is reportedly back to full health and finished 2022 with a flourish, looking like himself while averaging just under 100 rushing yards per game at 7.0 yards per carry in the final four contests of the regular season. Dobbins even averaged over 5.0 yards per tote in the wild-card loss to the Bengals while adding a 4-43-1 line through the air, and he'll start the new campaign going against a Texans team that's struggled significantly against the run for multiple seasons.
Houston surrendered an NFL-high 170.2 rushing yards per game last season, along with 5.1 yards per carry and an NFL-high 22 rushing TDs to RBs. The Texans also conceded 85 receptions and three receiving TDs to backs, and although there's a new coaching staff in town and a third overall pick in Will Anderson on the D-line, there should certainly still be some opportunities for Dobbins to make headway on the ground.
Kenneth Walker, SEA vs. LAR | DK: $6,000, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $23
Walker is past a preseason groin injury and like Dobbins, is coming off a big finish to last season and a solid wild-card performance. Walker recorded three straight 100-yard efforts to finish the campaign and then compiled a 15-63-1 line on the ground in a playoff loss to a 49ers squad with an elite defense.
We might look back on fantasy drafts and see Kenneth Walker and David Montgomery as absurd values
simply because neither took a single preseason snap, so no one had anything to *positively* react to pic.twitter.com/P5jF8nHFsU
— Josh Norris (@JoshNorris) August 28, 2023
One of Walker's aforementioned 100-yard performances came against these same Rams in Week 18, a game that marked the final contest of a one-and-done season in L.A. for tackling machine Bobby Wagner, who'll be back on the Seattle sideline for this Week 1 matchup. Without Wagner, L.A. could certainly see some serious regression against the run beginning with this tough divisional matchup, and even with him last season, they allowed 164.3 rushing yards per game over the last three contests.
ALSO CONSIDER: Rachaad White, TB at MIN | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,400, Yahoo: $17
DK/Yahoo Special: Javonte Williams, DEN vs. LVR | DK: $5,700, Yahoo: $22
Wide Receiver DFS Value Plays
Amari Cooper, CLE vs. CIN | DK: $5,800, FD: $6,700, Yahoo: $23
Cooper impressively got it done last season while acclimating to a new team and playing with two different quarterbacks, posting a 78-1,160-9 line across 17 games in his debut Browns campaign. The accomplished veteran got plenty of opportunity to build rapport with Deshaun Watson over the second half of the season and recorded 36 receptions for 575 yards and four touchdowns over his last eight games while being targeted on 26.3 percent of his routes.
He's now had a full offseason and training camp to further build rapport and will open the season facing a Bengals team he recorded a season-high 131 yards against in Week 8 of 2022. Cincinnati also allowed an AFC-high 11.1 yards per completion last season, and with Watson presumably now having a full grasp of the playbook, there could be even more downfield work for Cooper in a game during which the Browns should have to remain aggressive.
Mike Williams, LAC vs. MIA | DK: $5,700, FD: $7,100, Yahoo: $21
Williams' elite physical ability and knack for contested catches downfield always put him in play for tournaments, although those who've rostered him over the years are used to holding their breath hoping the injury bug doesn't bite. Nevertheless, the speedy veteran is certainly worth the moderate risk at his very appealing Week 1 salary, especially considering the elite quarterback he plays with and the matchup.
Williams will face a Dolphins team he lit up for a 6-116-1 line in Week 14 of last season, one that's replacing the injured Jalen Ramsey (knee) with undrafted second-year pro Kader Kohou. Miami allowed the third-most passing yards per road game (253.6) in 2022, while the 10.8 yards per completion the Dolphins gave up when traveling was markedly higher than the NFL-low 8.3 per home contest they conceded.
Jahan Dotson, WAS vs. ARI | DK: $5,000, FD: $6,100, Yahoo: $12
Dotson showed plenty of promise last season as a rookie, and he posted an encouraging three-game late-season stretch where he generated a 15-235-3 line in Weeks 13-16. The Penn State product also recorded over 70 receiving yards in three of his last four games overall, including a 3-72 line while working with fellow second-year pro Sam Howell as his quarterback.
Jahan Dotson
Dotson out-targeted McLaurin 31 to 28 Wks 13-17.
His 14.9 Yards/Catch ranked 10th amongst WRs.
Only FIVE players had more touchdowns per game than Jahan Dotson last season…
All five of those players have Top 16 ADP currently.pic.twitter.com/qmmIRjkSmP
— Joe Orrico (@NoExpertFF) September 7, 2023
Howell is now the full-time starter, at least to open the season, and he and Dotson could enjoy their fair share of success against a Cardinals team that allowed cornerback Byron Murphy to walk in free agency this offseason and that appears set to start sixth-round rookie Kei'Trel Clark in his place Sunday. Commanders offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy is very likely to remain aggressive based on his reputation, so Dotson could still be running plenty of downfield routes even if Washington is in control of the game in the second half.
ALSO CONSIDER: Chris Godwin, TB at MIN | DK: $5,900, FD: $6,800, Yahoo: $22 // Michael Thomas, NO vs. TEN DK: $5,100, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $20
Tight End DFS Value Plays
Kyle Pitts, ATL vs. CAR | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,000, Yahoo: $16
Hard as it might be to believe given his talent and the hype surrounding him just a couple of seasons ago, there's a certain degree of fantasy apathy surrounding Pitts coming into the new season after a disappointing and injury-shortened campaign a year ago. However, the athletic tight end is reportedly back to health and should once again be an integral part of an air attack set to be helmed by a promising second-year signal-caller in Desmond Ridder.
Pitts' ability to create mismatches downfield when healthy is undeniable, especially on the fast track of his home turf. Given his very reasonable salaries on all three sites, Pitts has the potential to be one of the best fantasy-point-per-dollar plays at any position in Week 1 against a Panthers defense that surrendered a 68.6 percent catch rate to tight ends last season, along with six touchdown receptions.
Juwan Johnson, NO vs. TEN | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $14
Speaking of athletic tight ends that could overdeliver on their modest salaries, Johnson is Exhibit 1-A. The one-time wideout posted a breakout 42-508-7 line on 65 targets over 16 games a year ago, and he'll now get a notable quarterback upgrade in Carr. Johnson has some of the same traits that endeared Darren Waller to Carr for the last few seasons, and the fourth-year pro will also kick off 2023 facing a team that bled production to tight ends throughout 2022.
The Titans surrendered an NFL-high 1,130 receiving yards to the position, along with the third-most catches (98). Johnson logged at least five targets in seven games in 2022, and given Tennesee will likely be a pass-funnel defense again this season, Johnson could be involved a solid amount in the opener, even with a healthy Thomas available to Carr.
ALSO CONSIDER: Chigoziem Okonkwo, TEN at NO | DK: $3,800, FD: $5,100, Yahoo: $10 // Irv Smith Jr., CIN at CLE | DK: $3,600, FD: $4,900, Yahoo: $10
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