RADIO
Hey there RotoBallers! For those fortunate enough to be in the playoff semifinals in season-long formats, good luck this week! For those who missed the playoffs, DFS contests can be an excellent way to stay involved as the NFL regular season winds down. The Week 15 main slate has a few potential shootout spots. The Texans/Titans game has the highest over/under, coming in at 50.5 points. The Oakland/Jacksonville game has an over/under set at 45.5 points but could wind up as a sneaky shootout with two bad defenses going at it. The 49ers have the highest implied team total on the board, set at 29.0 points.
The goal of this weekly column will be to locate some of the best DFS stacks each week. Stacking, or pairing a quarterback with one of his pass-catchers, is a great way to maximize the number of points scored. This method is generally viewed as a strategy in tournaments, but I also have no problem using safe, high-floor stacks in cash games, as well.
The top Week 15 DFS stacks will be listed below, loosely sorted by my preference. This article will center on the main slate (1:00 PM and 4:00 PM Sunday) games across both DraftKings and FanDuel. Each stack will reference two pass-catchers along with their quarterback. The pass-catchers will be listed in preferential order but sometimes a three-man stack is in play as full-game stacks led to several wins in the Milly Maker in 2018. If you feel strongly about how an offense will perform in a given week then consider loading up on several offensive players from that offense. All references to team defense DVOA come from Football Outsiders while cornerback and wide receiver matchups and grade references come from Pro Football Focus.
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Week 15 DFS Tournament Stacks
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
- QB Deshaun Watson ($6,300 DraftKings, $7,600 FanDuel)
- WR DeAndre Hopkins ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,200 FanDuel)
- WR Will Fuller/Kenny Stills ($6,300 DraftKings, $6,800 FanDuel)
The Texans head to Tennessee to take on their division rivals in the game with the highest over/under on the slate, set at 50.5 points. Houston comes in as three-point road dogs, putting Watson in a good spot to produce from a fantasy perspective. Look for the Texans to pass frequently against a Tennessee defense that is stout against the run and funnels extra work to the members of the opposition's passing attack. Watson, of course, is one of the top rushing-threat quarterbacks in the league, with a rushing floor that keeps his fantasy points up.
DeAndre Hopkins needs to be treated as a top-three fantasy receiver in Week 15 against an extremely banged-up Tennessee secondary that ranks just 23rd in pass defense DVOA. The Titans will look to counter Hopkins with Tramaine Brock. Brock has earned a 67.4 grade from PFF this season and was just released by the Cardinals two weeks ago. Will Fuller has been limited in practice this week after sitting out Week 14 with a lingering hamstring issue. Due to his explosive nature, Fuller needs to be considered in GPP lineups anytime he's active, especially in good matchups. Fuller has only faced the Titans twice since the beginning of the 2017 season but he has 12 catches for 148 yards and three scores in those two games. If Fuller ends up getting ruled out, consider pivoting to Kenny Stills, who offers similar game-breaking ability as Fuller.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Atlanta Falcons
- QB Jimmy Garoppolo ($6,700 DraftKings, $8,200 FanDuel)
- TE George Kittle ($7,000 DraftKings, $8,000 FanDuel)
- WR Emmanuel Sanders ($9,500 DraftKings, $8,700 FanDuel)
The 49ers skew very run-heavy but Jimmy Garoppolo has flashed plenty of upside this season. A Week 15 matchup against the Falcons could force the 49ers to throw a bit more frequently as Atlanta has been a bit better against the run this season. Atlanta ranks just 26th in pass-defense DVOA and has the offense to keep the pressure on San Francisco in a game that could turn into a sneaky shootout. Two of San Francisco's top corners in Richard Sherman (hamstring) and K'Waun Williams (concussion) are questionable this weekend. The injuries to those two are part of the reason why Drew Brees was able to shred a previously stout 49ers pass defense and should allow the Falcons to do the same.
Kittle remains one of the top tight ends in the league and one of Garoppolo's favorite targets in the passing attack. The Falcons are average against tight ends, allowing the 15th-most fantasy points to the position. Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel are both excellent plays in their own right but choosing between the two can be somewhat difficult. I'd give the slight edge to Sanders, who is seeing slightly more targets per game than Deebo and draws the best matchup (although all of the San Francisco WRs have great matchups). Atlanta left corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson has just a 48.8 grade from PFF and is no match for Sanders.
Cleveland Browns @ Arizona Cardinals
- QB Baker Mayfield ($6,500 DraftKings, $7,700 FanDuel)
- WR Jarvis Landry ($5,500 DraftKings, $6,600 FanDuel)
- TE David Njoku ($7,400 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel)
Here we are again after Mayfield and the Browns passing attack struggled in an excellent spot against the Bengals in Week 14. That being said, a showdown against a shaky Arizona pass defense is too good to ignore. The Arizona pass defense ranks 29th in DVOA while allowing the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. Mayfield's Browns head into Week 15 as 2.5-point road favorites in a game with a 48.0-point over/under.
Landry finds himself in an absolute smash spot as he gets set to take on an Arizona defense that is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. While Odell Beckham Jr. will tangle with top Arizona corner Patrick Peterson, Landry will be left to line up across from Kevin Peterson and Byron Murphy. Kevin has a 60.9 grade and Murphy has a 50.3 grade from PFF. David Njoku popped up on the injury report as limited with a knee injury. It is a slight concern as he heads into the top matchup in all of football for tight ends. Arizona is getting decimated by the position this season, allowing the most fantasy points per game. If Njoku is active, he needs to be considered as a tournament option in the best matchup he will see all year.
Under-Owned Week 15 DFS Stack
Detroit Lions vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- QB David Blough ($5,700 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
- WR Kenny Golladay ($10,300 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel)
- WR Danny Amendola ($7,000 DraftKings, $7,100 FanDuel)
David Blough has passed for 485 yards, three touchdowns, and three interceptions in his two starts in Weeks 13 and 14. Those are passable numbers and came against decent defenses in the Bears and Vikings. In Week 15, Blough and the Detroit offense draws a dream matchup against a swiss cheese Tampa Bay secondary that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. The Buccaneers haven't made things easy on their beleaguered secondary as their defense shuts down the run, ranking first in DVOA in that department. Not many DFS gamers will be looking to start Blough in their lineups which will keep his ownership levels suppressed.
Of David Blough's three touchdowns, two have gone to alpha wide receiver Kenny Golladay. Marvin Jones was placed on injured reserve this week, which should help tack a few more targets onto Golladay's stat line. The Bucs are allowing the most fantasy points per game to wide receivers and the most receiving yardage this season. Golladay is in a smash spot in Week 15. Consider taking a look at Danny Amendola if you want to run a three-man stack in this game. While he isn't a reliable option, Amendola should see an uptick in targets with Jones injured. The veteran slot option has had a few big games this season, although those came with Matthew Stafford under center.
Thanks for reading, go win some money this weekend RotoBallers!
