RADIO
Week 11 NCAA college football betting picks and matchups previews. Dominick's top CFB games to watch in Week 11, including betting lines and recommendations.
After a great Week 10 slate of games, what can we expect in Week 11 of college football? Hopefully more of the same.
After obliterating Cal, Oregon will look to stay in the Pac-12 title race with a home game against the faltering USC Trojans. Penn State will look like muddy up the Big Ten with a victory over Michigan. And, of course, can Georgia take the No. 1 spot from Ohio State with a convincing victory over Ole Miss?
All these questions will be answered on Saturday. While other questions will arise from the results. But for the biggest games of the weekend, let’s look at the crème ala crème.
No. 2 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 9 Penn State Nittany Lions
Betting Lines: Michigan -5.5(-105) O/U 45.5 O(-115)U(-105)
Although Michigan is a leading contender to win its third straight Joe Moore Award for the best offensive line in the country, the run game for the Wolverines has not been as potent in 2023 as it was in 2022.
Averaging 167.1 yards/game, Michigan ranks No. 51 in the Nation while Penn State (58.8) ranks No. 1 in rush yards allowed. This will be a defensive matchup as both teams come in with elite squads. Penn State ranks No. 2 in total defense, No. 1 in rush defense and No. 12 in pass defense at 175.7 yards. The Nittany Lions also rank No. 1 in yards/play at 4.0.
For Michigan, the defense ranks No. 1 in yards allowed No. 11 in rush yards and No. 1 in pass yards at 141.3. The Wolverines also rank No. 6 in yards/play at 4.3. In one of the most incredible stats of the 2023 season, Michigan, through nine games, has yet to face a first-and-goal situation. Teams do not sustain long drives against the Wolverines and with the sporadic nature of the Penn State offense, don’t expect any here either.
This will be a low-scoring defensive battle in State College. The Over/Under of 45.5 reflects this assumption.
If this game were in Michigan, you could expect a blowout by the Wolverines. I say this as a Penn State fan. But with this one being played at Penn State, the Nittany Lions have a chance to keep it close with their defense leading the way. If Penn State can pull off an improbable win, it would send the Big Ten into turmoil. If it happened and if Michigan went and beat Ohio State, Penn State would go to the conference championship game. Why? Because it played and beat Iowa. The Hawkeyes strike again.
Betting: Michigan -5.5 Under 45.5
No. 14 Utah Utes vs. No. 5 Washington Huskies
Betting Lines: Washington -9.5(-110) O/U 53.5 O(-110)U(-110)
Also slim, Utah still has a chance to get to the Pac-12 title game for the third straight season. To do so, it must defeat the Washington team which came back to life Saturday with a 52-42 win over USC.
Washington will now return home to take on a physical Utah team that is coming off a 55-3 win over Arizona State Saturday.
Both teams have played the Oregon Ducks on their home turf. While Washington beat Oregon 36-33, the Ducks 35-6 as Oregon defeated Utah completely shut down the Utes offense. While Oregon and Washington are similar in stature in 2023, the Huskies defense is far less physical than Oregon and Utah will be able to move the ball more easily.
Washington’s defense ranks no. 109 and allows 413.4 yards/game. Utah will attempt to keep the Washington offense (509.1 yards), which ranks No. 4 off the field by using its rush offense which averages 192.7 yards a game (25th). Utah will need to meet or exceed its average of 43.8 rush attempts/game if it wants to keep QB Michael Pennix and his trio of elite receivers on the sideline. This is the only way the Utes will have a chance to win in Seattle.
If Washington can get past this game with a win, a play next week on Oregon State could be in play. After the Oregon defense beat up the Washington offensive line, it took three weeks for the Huskies to get right. Against Oregon State, with a top offensive line in the Pas-12 coming up next week, Washington could be beaten down by Utah and have a tough time against the Beavers rush attack. As for this week, Washington looks to be the better team. But coach Kyle Whittingham will have the Utes ready for a fight. But it might not be enough.
Betting: Washington -9.5 Over 53.5
No. 10 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 1 Georgia Bulldogs
Betting: Georgia -10.5(-110) O/U 58.5 O(-110)U(-110)
The term paper champion gets thrown around a lot. This certainly does not include Georgia. But it could include Ole Miss who comes into this game 8-1 on the season and ranked No. 10 in the coach’s poll. I know why they are ranked this high. They are in the vaunted SEC. But are they really this good? I am betting no.
Ole Miss has used its schedule to rank No. 12 in total offense at 478.9 yards/game. This has come on the back of a 35th-ranked rush offense (181.2 yards) combined with a 15th-ranked pass offense (297.7 yards). If you look at its only game against a good defense, a 24-10 loss to Alabama, Ole Miss was only able to gain 56 rushing yards on 29 rushes while passing the ball for 245 yards on the Crimson Tide defense.
The Georgia defense will not allow the Rebels to run or pass the ball to the level they have been used to in recent weeks. With the Georgia offense behind Carson Beck rounding into shape and facing an Ole Miss defense which ranks No. 61 in yards at 365.7, Georgia will be able to continually move the ball. Something it has done to rank No. 6 in offense at 492.9 yards and at a rate of 7.0 yards/play.
Quinshon Judkins is a good running back. Possibly the best in the SEC. But he is an inside runner. Which is the one place you do not want to run against Georgia. Backs which have been successful against the Bulldogs have been running around the edge. This is not what Ole Miss or Judkins want to do and this will also limit the amount it will be able to sustain drives.
Georgia has won the past two national titles on the strength of its defense. This season, if it wins its third in a row, it could be on the strength of its offense. An offense Ole Miss will need to keep off the field for a chance to pull off the upset.
With a win here, Georgia will likely jump Ohio State in the playoff’s rankings. Something which may seem small to us is extremely important to the Bulldogs. Expect them to do everything they can to leave no doubt for the committee about what it should do on Tuesday.
Betting: Georgia -10.5 Over 58.5
USC Trojans vs. No. 6 Oregon Ducks
Betting: Oregon -14.5(-110) O/U 73.5 O(-112)U(-108)
I wish USC were better. But either way, this is an important game for Oregon who must win to make it to the Pac-12 championship game and a likely rematch with Washington in Las Vegas.
USC has struggled mightily in 2023. Keeping Alex Grinch for as long as it did has done damage to the team which could be felt beyond this season for the Trojans. It will certainly be felt this week against an Oregon offense led by QB Bo Nix, WR Tony Franklin and RB Bucky Irving.
The real key to this game though will be the ability of the Physical Oregon defense to contain Caleb Williams and the Trojans offense. It should be able to do better than any other team this season. It is more talented than USC and will show it in this home game.
The USC offensive line has allowed Williams to be sacked an average of 2.7 times/game. This is No. 107 nationally. Oregon ranks No. 17 in sacks getting to the QB 3-1 times/game. USC, averaging 45.5 points/game, will be going against an Oregon defense which ranks No. 11 and allows only 16.0 points/game on the season. USC will struggle as Oregon will be able to bully their offensive line and keep them away from Nix with its offensive line. Oregon could win this game going away. But the hesitation is still there with the ability of the USC offense to bust out a scoring play at any time. Despite this, Oregon should continue to roll since its only loss of the season to Oregon. While USC will continue to stumble to the finish line.
Betting: Oregon -14.5 Under 73.5
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Betting: Iowa -1(-110) O/U 28.5 O(-110)U(-110)
Ok, I love talking about Iowa because they are so bad. But in this case, it is also an important game depending on what happens in Happy Valley.
If Penn State can defeat Michigan and Michigan defeats Ohio State again, there will be a three-way tie for the Big Ten East. This will force the conference to go to tie breakers. This means the winner would be determined by the record of its Big Ten West opponents. Only Penn State has played Iowa and their continued winning will give Penn State the edge and send them to Indianapolis. Exciting I know.
This game also pits two of the top defenses in the nation as Iowa ranks No. 4 in scoring defense (13.7 points), while Rutgers ranks No. 20 at 17.9 points. Neither offense is good as Iowa ranks No. 121 in points at 18.4 while Rutgers is slightly better ranking No. 75 at 26.8 points.
28.5 is a ridiculously low total. But after Iowa and Northwestern played to a 10-7 total and neither team eclipsed 200 yards of offense, it is viable to think this one is just as ugly.
If you want a bonus wager for this game, take a defensive TD to be scored in the game. A play of Iowa scoring a defensive TD would also be a good wager as QB Gavin Wimsatt has five INTs on just 209 pass attempts in 2023.
Betting: Iowa -1 Under 28.5
