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Michael Grennell analyzes the impact of starting pitcher Nathan Eovaldi being traded to the Boston Red Sox will have on his fantasy value for the rest of the 2018 season and beyond.
As if the Boston Red Sox didn't already have one of the top rotations in baseball this year, they managed to improve upon it by acquiring Nathan Eovaldi from the Rays on Wednesday.
Eovaldi has been working his way back from his second Tommy John surgery, and in his first action in over a year and a half he he has been putting up some of the best numbers of his career with the Rays. In return for Eovaldi, Boston sent to Tampa Bay pitching prospect Jalen Beeks, who has also been having a career year playing in Triple-A Pawtucket. Of these two pitchers, clearly Eovaldi will have the greater fantasy value for the rest of this season, but both Eovaldi and Beeks should carry some value beyond 2018 in dynasty leagues.
Let's go ahead now and take a look at how they will help your fantasy team close out the year and how they can help in the years to come.
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Rest of Season Outlook
We'll touch briefly on Beeks later in this section, but the reality is that Eovaldi will have the greatest fantasy impact for the rest of this season. He has already shown success at the major league level, and he'll receive an instant boost in value joining one of the best teams in the league. The Red Sox have the highest scoring offense this year, averaging 5.3 runs per game, while also allowing the second-fewest runs per game, averaging 3.7 runs allowed per game. This should put Eovaldi in a position to see a few more wins over the remainder of the season, since in five of his 10 starts he received run support of two or fewer runs.
There's only so much impact that moving to a new team can have on a player's fantasy value. They still need to continue to perform at a consistent level in order to maintain fantasy relevancy. So how are Eovaldi's numbers looking this year? Over 57 innings with Tampa Bay, Eovaldi has posted a 4.26 ERA — his lowest since 2015 — and a career-low 0.982 WHIP. Home runs are still a problem for Eovaldi as he is matching his career-high with 1.7 HR/9, but he has dropped his walk rate to a career-low 3.6 percent while bringing his strikeout rate to a career-high 23.7 percent.
Looking at his advanced metrics, Eovaldi's increased strikeout rate doesn't seem to be a fluke. First off, his average velocity on breaking pitches is at a career-high this season, with his slider sitting at 87.6 mph (highest since his rookie season in 2011) and his curveball at 78.8 mph. This increase in velocity on his breaking pitches has likely had an impact on his ability to get batters to chase this season, with his 36.3 percent O-Swing rate and 11 percent swinging strike rate both setting career-highs.
Eovaldi is currently owned in less than 50 percent of leagues in both ESPN and Yahoo!, and with this trade to Boston he will quickly get added in many leagues. With the numbers he has posted in Tampa Bay and the fact he is moving to a much better team in Boston, he should now be considered a must-own in AL-only leagues, and should be added in 12-team mixed leagues. Beeks on the other hand, will most likely not provide enough value to be worth owning this year.
Beeks had made two appearances for Boston prior to the trade, including one start. Over 6 1/3 innings, Beeks allowed nine runs on 11 hits and four walks with five strikeouts. Things didn't get better for Beeks in his first appearance with Tampa Bay, as he allowed eight runs on 10 hits and three walks with one strikeout over 3 1/3 innings of relief. Beeks is going to need some time to adjust to major league pitching, and that plus the unorthodox use of pitchers by the Rays makes it highly unlikely that Beeks will give much, if any, value to fantasy owners in 2018.
Dynasty Value
We'll be talking mostly about Beeks in this section, but that being said, Eovaldi could have some decent value in dynasty formats going forward. Eovaldi will be a free agent at the end of this season, and at 28-years-old he will be the youngest starting pitcher on the market coming off what is shaping up to be the best year of his career. He won't be the biggest free agent out there with guys like Gio Gonzalez and Charlie Morton set to hit the market, but he could be a somewhat sought after pitcher, and if he signs with a National League team he could become a top-50 pitcher for next season.
Beeks is the more interesting pitcher in dynasty going forward, having improved his numbers each year in the minors since 2015 and now setting career-highs this year in Triple-A. Before his struggles at the major league level, Beeks was 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA over 16 starts with the Pawtucket Red Sox, and had posted a 33 percent strikeout rate and seven percent walk rate over 87 1/3 innings. His 12.1 K/9 is his highest rate since his debut season in 2014, and his 1.088 WHIP and 2.6 BB/9 are his lowest marks since 2015.
The high strikeout rate is what will generate the most interest in Beeks among dynasty owners, but now that he's pitching in Tampa Bay his future value remains unclear. The way the Rays are using their pitchers right now causes some devaluation in potential fantasy value, and then the fact that the team is currently in a rebuilding phase put Beeks in a position where he might struggle to provide much value over the next few years. According to reports though, the Rays are "excited" to have acquired Beeks, and he could factor into the next Rays' playoff appearance once some of the other top prospects in their system make it to Tampa Bay. The best course of action for dynasty owners to take with Beeks right now is stashing him if possible, and monitor his performance over the course of the rest of this season.
