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Kyle Ringstad’s KBO DFS picks for 7/7/2020. He breaks down the KBO slate for FanDuel and DraftKings and offers his favorite pitchers, hitters, and value plays for DFS contests.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there. If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Let's get into the slate!
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 4:30 AM (CT) on Tuesday, July 7, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg. You can also find our betting picks here).
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KBO DFS Pitchers
Hoping everyone here in the states had a safe and fun holiday weekend - welcome back to KBO DFS and Happy Chang-mo Koo Chalk Day!
We have what some would call a "no-brainer" type of slate when it comes to selecting starting pitching. Chang-mo Koo is the top pitcher in the KBO, and it's not even close. He has a cupcake matchup and the lowest projected run total on the slate. However, his ownership will be through the roof and DFS players on DraftKings needs a viable SP2, so we'll run through some other SP options to consider.
Chang-mo Koo - NC Starting P ($29 FanDuel, $10800 DraftKings)
Koo seems appropriately high-priced on DraftKings, but you don't have to pay up too far to get him on FanDuel. He's a very highly-recommended play on both sites. If you need any convincing, simply take a look at his stats in the chart above (31.1% K%) and consider his matchup against the second-worst offense in the league in the SK Wyverns. Don't overthink this.
Gi-yeong Im - KIA Starting P ($27 Fanduel, $8200 DraftKings)
Im is the next highest-salaried arm on FanDuel (third on DraftKings), and for good reason. His team is favored by 1.5 runs in a game projecting for just 9.5 runs. Im has been impressive lately, as he's allowed two earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts and has only given up two homers in that span. In his last outing against KT, Im allowed three earned runs in five innings pitched and notched five strikeouts. He should put up a usable fantasy line given his recent form and above-average strikeout rate.
David Buchanan - SAM Starting P ($23 FanDuel, $7600 DraftKings)
Buchanan has put up solid, if not spectacular, numbers in the 2020 season. He's 6-3 with a 4.04 ERA, but his 16.4% K% won't blow anyone away and his 1.25 HR/9 rate (second-worst on the slate) is certainly not where he'd like it to be. What he has going for him is that he's a consistent, reliable pitcher who's favored by 1.5 runs in a game with a projected 9.5 run total. Kiwoom can certainly hit, but they oddly hit significantly worse at home. He's a great contrarian play as a SP2 on DraftKings, but it's really tough to stomach saving just $6 on Buchanan over Koo on FanDuel, given Koo's upside.
*Longshot GPP Play*
Won-sam Jang - LOT Starting P ($26 FanDuel, $5200 DraftKings)
Jang may have the best win-equity outside of Koo as he's facing the dreadful Hanwha Eagles on the road. However, he's making just his third start of the year and has been absolutely lit up for a combined 10 earned runs against NC and Doosan. He did reach 89 pitches against NC in his start on 7/1, so what we're looking for here is for him to log enough innings for his offense to take the lead and get him the win bonus. He has a pitiful 4.7% K% in the small sample size, but this should be a matchup where he can bump that number up a bit.
Note: Jang is a much better value on DraftKings - he is much less attractive on FanDuel at his elevated price tag.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. You want Koo on this slate, so we'll look to highlight some value in hitter stacks today.
Doosan Bears
Doosan is (once again) a top stack that we need to consider. They're facing the LG Twins and Woo-chan Cha, who has a 5.54 ERA, 3.98 BB/9 rate, and a slate-leading 1.38 HR/9 rate. He has a high 21% K%, but that shouldn't scare you off this top-3 offense in a favorable matchup with a projected 10.5 run total.
Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $5900) - Fernandez is hitting .370/.433/.551 and leads the team with 45 runs scored. He also has contributed 37 RBI as one of the catalysts of this stacked lineup.
Jae-Hwan Kim ($17, $5500) - Kim leads the team with his 11 homers, 49 RBI (KBO leader), and 37 BB (KBO leader).
Jae-Il Oh ($15, $4200) - Oh holds the team lead with a .354 average, .414 OBP, .578 SLG, and a .244 ISO.
Kun-Woo Park ($13, $4300) - Doosan's usual leadoff hitter is hitting .308 and has scored the second-most runs on the team with 42. The statistics point to leaning Choi over Park in GPP's for the same price on FanDuel.
Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $3500) - Choi's eight home runs are tied for second on the team and his .191 ISO reflects his solid power. He's also second on the team with 38 RBI.
Kyoung-Min Hur ($8, $3600) - Hur is inexpensive and a great pick to pair with the high-priced Doosan studs. He's hitting .348 and has 21 runs scored, 22 RBI, and five steals for the year.
Jae-Ho Kim ($8, $3200) - Kim is hitting for a .322 average and has 23 runs scored, 17 RBI, and three steals this season. He's a viable cheap option in this loaded lineup.
LG Twins
The other side of the DOO/LG matchup could provide some fireworks as well. Doosan's Young-ha Lee has the highest ERA and WHIP (outside of Jang, who has nine innings pitched) on the slate. He gives up 4.94 BB/9 and holds a well below-average 14.2% K%. Lee doesn't give up homers, but the Twins are primed to put up a nice total against him.
Roberto Ramos ($17, $5000) - Ramos is the team's leader with a .289 ISO and 14 home runs. He's worth paying up for if you're employing an LG stack.
Hyun-Soo Kim ($15, $5000) - Kim has a team-leading 18 doubles on the season and ranks second on LG with eight homers.
Eun-Sung Chae ($13, $3000) - LG's DH is hitting .280/.344/.423 with five homers, 29 RBI, and 31 runs scored this year. Great value on DraftKings.
Ji-Hwan Oh ($9, $3600) - Oh hits in the two-spot and is a very inexpensive way to get access to the big bats today. He has 28 runs scored and nine steals on the season.
Chun-Woong Lee ($8, 3000) - Lee hits leadoff and doesn't hit for power, but he's second on the team in runs scored and gets on base at a high clip (.350 OBP).
Kang-Nam Yoo ($10, $4400) - Yoo has the second-most RBI on the team with 34. Much better value on FanDuel.
Kia Tigers
Kia is facing Jae-seong Bae, who holds a solid 4-2 record with a 3.66 ERA. On the flip side, he has a high 3.97 BB/9 rate, 1.44 WHIP, and 5.14 FIP. He doesn't strike batters out, either, as his 13.2% K% ranks last on the slate (excluding Jang).
Preston Tucker ($17, $5800) - Tucker leads the team with a .250 ISO and holds a great .307/.387/.557 slash line for the season. He has 11 home runs and his 41 RBI's ranks fifth in the entire league. However, he has been stuck in a bit of a slump lately.
Hyung-woo Choi ($13, $4800) - Choi is the second most productive hitter on the Tigers as he has swatted nine homers and holds a .212 ISO in 2020. Choi has been heating up, slashing .358/.442/.605 over his last 25 games played.
Ji-wan Na ($9, $3700) - Na holds the fourth-highest ISO on the team at .183 and has hit five home runs this year. Generally hits cleanup and is too cheap considering his upside.
Min-sang Yoo ($7, $3400) - Yoo is hitting .331 for the year and has the third-most RBI's on the team with 28. He's an inexpensive way to get exposure to the Tigers.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- Value hitter stacks, mini-stacks, or one-offs can be had from both Lotte and Samsung. Lotte would be the preferred target at the projected 10.5 run total and facing Hanwha's Si-hwan Chang, who leads the slate with a 5.04 BB/9 rate and has a weak 5.44 ERA. Hoon Jung ($9, $3700), Ah-Seop Son ($13, $4100), Jun-Woo Jeon ($12, $4200), Dae-Ho Lee ($10, $3900), and Dixon Machado ($10, $4600) are all in play.
- Samsung is red-hot with a 10-3 record over their last 13 games played. Ja-Wook Koo ($10, $4600), Sang-Su Kim ($8, $4800), Hae-Min Park ($7, $2800) and Won-Seok Lee ($8, $3800) can be considered.
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS picks here at RotoBaller!
