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Kyle Ringstad’s KBO DFS picks for 7/12/2020. He breaks down the KBO slate for FanDuel and DraftKings and offers his favorite pitchers, hitters, and value plays for DFS contests.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer to this point (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there (combined with a little statistical analysis, of course). If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Lastly, keep an eye on MyKBOStats.com for updated weather projections.
*Weather Alert*
KIA/SAM and LG/LOT have rain concerns and should be monitored as we get closer to lock.
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 5:30 (ET) on Tuesday, July 14, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg.)
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KBO DFS Pitchers
We've seen a lot of weather issues lately - Sunday's entire slate was cancelled and there were three more rain-outs on Monday. There is leverage to be gained in those situations, though. As we saw last night, selecting the right pitcher (Hanwha's Jang-Chi Hwan) and stacking the correct team (Kia) becomes a LOT easier when only two games are in play.
The 7/14 slate looks better from a weather perspective, though there are a few matchups to keep an eye on there. It should be a Koo Chalk Night, as it should've been on 7/12, but the Dinos have shifted his start back again *insert sad face here*. Due to the last few nights throwing off the starting pitcher schedule, FanDuel's pricing was set before the 7/14 pitchers were announced and that has opened up some insane value at the position. DraftKings is much tighter with the pricing, but we'll uncover an SP1 and a few cheaper SP2 options to consider.
Note: Casey Kelly is somewhat intriguing in a great matchup, but he's too expensive (on both sites) given his lack of high-end upside.
Dan Straily - LOT Starting P ($23 Fanduel, $10100 DraftKings)
This is more a FanDuel-lock type of play than it is a surefire-SP1 play on DraftKings. Straily is easily the best pitcher on the slate with a 2.29 ERA, 3.05 FIP, 26.3% K%, 0.48 HR/9, and a 1.03 WHIP. He's facing LG, who rank as a top-3 offense away from home but are just middle-of-the-pack overall. They've averaged just 2.6 runs per game in their last three contests. Start Straily at his hilarious mis-price on Fanduel and strongly consider pairing him with a cheap SP2 on DraftKings.
Odrisamer Despaigne - KT Starting P ($26 FanDuel, $8100 DraftKings)
Despaigne doesn't really have any part of his profile that jumps off the page, but he's 5-4 with a 4.29 ERA, 4.29 FIP, and a 18.3% K%. That will absolutely work in a matchup against the hapless Hanwha offense. The Eagles are actually slightly better on the road, but they're still the worst offense in the KBO and they strike out at an alarming rate. He gave up four earned runs over six innings (with five strikeouts) against Hanwha on 6/28, but the odds favor Despaigne faring better this time around. He's a viable SP1/SP2 on DraftKings.
David Buchanan - SAM Starting P ($25 FanDuel, $7900 DraftKings)
Buchanan looks to be a distant third option on this slate. Straily and Despaigne have higher strikeout upside to go along with much better matchups. He's facing the dangerous Kia offense with an inflated 1.15 HR/9 rate and an ERA (3.82) that's not backed up by his FIP (4.86). However, the ex-Phillies pitcher is still in the mix as a 1.5-run favorite at home and with limited quality options available on this slate. He's 7-3 on the season and his stats show enough to suggest that he can at least notch a win and (at least) a few strikeouts against the Tigers. He went five innings against Kia back on 6/19, allowing two earned runs and recording seven strikeouts in a no-decision.
*Longshot GPP Play(s)*
Geun-Wook Lee - SK Starting P ($22 FanDuel, $6700 DraftKings)
SK's Geun-Wook Lee has enough upside built into his stats to put him in consideration as a strong SP2 on DraftKings, and he's even worth a GPP shot on FanDuel. He's 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA that's not backed up by a 4.42 FIP, and he walks too many batters at a 13.0% BB%. He holds a respectable 18.6% K% (third-highest on the slate) and leads the entire slate in HR/9 (0.42), batting average against (.210), BABIP (.256), and LOB% (79%). Not bad for the lowest-salaried pitcher on FanDuel (second-lowest on DraftKings). He has a tough matchup against Doosan, but he went 5 and 1/3 innings against them on 5/28, allowing just three hits and one earned run while recording three strikeouts. Lee has also allowed one earned run or less in four of his last six starts. The matchup will keep his ownership down, making him a great leverage option at his low price.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. The KIW/NC game could be a shootout, as both starting pitchers have been awful in 2020 and we know NC's bullpen can be exploited. Doosan could get to Geun-Wook Lee and his inflated walk rate, but stacking some SK batters on the other side of the matchup might prove useful as well since Young-Ha Lee has some of the worst statistics on the slate. We're getting Straily at a steal on FanDuel, meaning we can feel comfortable loading up on big bats. DraftKings players will need to get a little more creative in their lineup builds.
Kiwoom Heroes
NC's Jae-Hak Lee is one of the highest-salaried pitchers on the slate, and it makes zero sense. He has terrible statistics (5.59 ERA, 5.00 FIP, 0.96 HR/9, 15.2% K%, 1.44 WHIP) and Kiwoom is favored by 1.5-runs in a game with a 11.5-run projected total. Lee has an 0-3 record in his last five starts and gave up two earned runs (including a homer) in just 1 and 2/3 innings against Kiwoom back on 6/13.
Dong-Won Park ($9, $5100) - Park is an elite source of power at the catcher position with 10 HR and 13 doubles on the season. He's third on the team with a .247 ISO. Much better value on FanDuel.
Byung-Ho Park ($14, $4500) - The ex-Twins slugger leads the team with a .262 ISO and 15 homers.
Jung-Hoo Lee ($14, $4600) - Jung-Hoo Lee is the Heroes' leader in batting average (.357), wOBA (.444) and wRC+ (164). He is tied for the team lead with 44 RBI and has chipped in three steals.
Ha-Seong Kim ($16, $5600) - Kim impressively has 11 HR and nine steals in 2020, and he leads Kiwoom with 47 runs scored and is tied for the lead with 44 RBI. He's an important piece of the Kiwoom stack, if you can afford him.
Keon-Chang Seo ($11, $4400) - Seo is the usual leadoff hitter and holds a .309 batting average to go along with five home runs, five triples, 40 runs scored, and 13 stolen bases.
NC Dinos
Let's keep the big bats rolling with NC's expensive lineup. Kiwoom's Jake Brigham is making just his fifth start of the year and even though his 20.3% K% is somewhat impressive, the rest of his statistics suggest that we should target hitters against him (especially power hitters).
Aaron Altherr ($15, $5300) - Altherr holds a .303 ISO with 15 homers, 52 RBI, 43 runs scored, and 11 steals in 2020.
Eui-Ji Yang ($13, $5400) - KBO's top catcher is slashing .303/.377/.553 with eight home runs and 39 RBI.
Suk-Min Park ($10, $4300) - Suk-Min Park has eight homers on the year to go along with 30 RBI and 28 runs scored. Much better value on FanDuel.
Sung-Bum Na ($18, $5400) - Na is right there with Altherr as he has 15 homers, 48 RBI, 46 runs scored, and 18 doubles in 2020. He's slashing .311/.375/.596 but has the highest BABIP on the team at .397.
Hee-Dong Kwon ($9, $2800) - Kwon provides amazing value on both sites. He ranks fifth on this stacked offense with a .233 ISO, adding nine homers, 31 RBI, and 34 runs scored in 2020. He also leads the team with an impressive .436 OBP.
Min-Woo Park ($12, $5100) - Park is one of NC's rare instances of a regular who doesn't posses much long-ball power, as he has just three homers in 2020. However, he has a whopping 14 doubles in 2020 to go along with his solid .314 batting average and six steals. Much better value on FanDuel.
Doosan Bears
As long as you're not taking the shot-in-the-dark of starting SK's Geun-Wook Lee, stacking Doosan's bats is a viable move. Lee has a sparkling 2.95 ERA, but he has only made eight starts and his 4.42 FIP and 13.0% BB% suggest that his surface numbers are slightly inflated. He doesn't give up homers, but Doosan is certainly capable of putting up runs against Lee and the SK bullpen. Note: Kun-Woo Park is not included due to his salary rising above his expected production.
Kyoung-Min Hur ($10, $4600) - FanDuel just refuses to increase the price on Hur. He holds a .361/.399/.497 slash line with four home runs and five steals over 168 at-bats in 2020. Better value on FanDuel.
Se-Hyuk Park ($7, $4300) - Doosan's catcher has a little power (three homers), but you're picking him due to his .298 batting average, .369 on-base percentage, and 26 runs scored. Better value on FanDuel.
Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $6400) - Doosan's undisputed leader, Fernandez has been on fire all season. He's hitting .376/.438/.573 with 10 home runs, 41 RBI, 52 runs scored, and 16 doubles. He also leads the team by a wide margin with 59 wRC and 165 wRC+.
Jae-Il Oh ($15, $4900) - Jae-Il Oh is the team leader with a .220 ISO to go along with an amazing .348/.402/.567 slash line. He has added seven homers and 15 doubles this season.
Jae-Hwan Kim ($17, $5700) - Jae-Hwan Kim leads Doosan with 51 RBI, and his 15.9% BB% also paces the team by a wide margin. On a related note, Kim ranks third on the team with 39 runs scored and should be strongly considered in a Doosan stack as an alternative to Fernandez.
Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $4200) - Choi has great all-around numbers, slashing .310/.374/.495 in 2020. He has eight homers, 43 RBI, and 33 runs scored and generally hits in the top-half of the order.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- The Samsung Lions are in play against Kia's Min-Woo Lee, who has a 4.92 ERA and hasn't shown much control or strikeout potential over his 10 starts in 2020. Also, remember that Samsung's home park ranks as the best park for offensive production. Samsung's top targets are Tyler Saladino ($13, $4600), Won-Seok Lee ($8, $3900), Sung-Gyu Lee ($9, $3400), and Min-Ho Kang ($7, $3700).
- SK is facing Doosan's Young-ha Lee, who holds the worst ERA on the slate at 5.79. He doesn't strike batters out and his .311 batting average against and 1.85 WHIP also rank last among the starting pitchers on 7/14. The best bets on SK are Jeong Choi ($14, $5200), Jamie Romak ($13, $4300), Dong-Min Han ($9, 4400), and Jun-Hyeok Oh ($5, $2200).
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS lineup picks here at RotoBaller!
