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One of the more challenging and perhaps more fun aspects of fantasy football is trying to predict the future. While attempts at predicting the future often lead to more failures than successes for most, hitting on that player or team sure feels good. If you play in dynasty leagues or have had the chance to do some early season best ball drafts, you quickly understand that your ability to read the room and understand what other teams may do with their personnel is incredibly valuable. Perhaps in 2020, you were all in on Clyde Edwards-Helaire before the draft. Not because you knew where he was going, but because you felt so strongly that he would see high draft capital and turn into a fantasy-relevant asset in his rookie year. Or maybe somebody tried to peddle Mark Ingram II to you in the dynasty offseason, but you knew better.
That last one is a text between myself and a buddy of mine in a dynasty league. Apologies to him if he sees this, but it felt really good not being tied to Ingram in 2020 (and beyond) after his solid 2019 season. I'd expect he would have felt just as good if I had accepted the deal. The point is, it feels good to get a call right, and there are things we can do and actions we can read to better help us predict the future. Over the last few days, I've been all-in on 49ers running back Jeff Wilson Jr. I would like to share why.
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The Contract Extension
Heading into the 2021 offseason, Wilson was set to enter restricted free agency. If you're unfamiliar with restricted free agents, you can read more on it from this article.
It's not uncommon for teams to tender an offer to a restricted free agent before the free agency period begins. This tender means that another team can make an offer to a player, but his current team has an opportunity to either match that offer or let him walk. Oftentimes, a tender comes with a compensatory pick.
The Denver Broncos are considering tendering running back Phillip Lindsay, but have not yet decided what tender to place on him.
When it comes to Wilson, however, the 49ers did something different. They opted to not tender him this offseason, but instead offered him a one-year contract extension with $2 million in guaranteed money.
Despite having the ability to match any offer a team might make Wilson in free agency, San Francisco opted to retain their leading rusher from 2020. It's a minor move on the surface, but it could mean more for Wilson and his fantasy managers in 2021.
Wilson vs. Mostert
You might recall last season that running back Raheem Mostert was threatening a holdout if he didn't receive a new contract. Mostert came out of nowhere in 2019 during the team's Super Bowl run, posting a rushing line of 137/772/8 in the regular season, and another 53/336/5 during the playoffs.
Instead of letting Mostert holdout, the 49ers opted to restructure his deal, giving him more money, but no additional years. The full details of Mostert's deal are shown below from spotrac.com.
It's interesting to note that the 49ers could cut Mostert for a mere $458,334 in dead money if either he or the team should want to part ways.
When it comes to the 2020 season, Mostert under-delivered on his new contract. He suffered an MCL sprain and a high ankle sprain on two separate occasions, finishing the season with a rushing line of 104/521/5 stretched over eight games. His 101.7 PPR was good for an RB47 finish on the season. He averaged 12.7 PPR/gm when active (RB23).
Raheem Mostert Medical History Report courtesy of PlayerProfiler.com
While Mostert struggled to stay healthy, Wilson flourished.
He led the team in rushing yards (603) and total touchdowns (10) and was the RB26 in PPR/gm (13.3). Wilson finished as the RB15 in fantasy points over expectation (FPOE), an efficiency metric used at RotoViz.com, with 21.2 FPOE. His 21.2 FPOE was more than players like Christian McCaffrey, Chase Edmonds, David Montgomery, and yes, Raheem Mostert.
Wilson appeared in 11 games for the 49ers last season. In five of those games, he finished as a top-24 back, and in four of them, he finished as a top-12 back. If you were fortunate to have started him in your Week 16 championship game, you enjoyed a 27.4 PPR outburst, his second-highest scoring game of the season (32.0 PPR in Week 7).
For at least one week, the most important week, Wilson was a "league winner." Mostert, as was the case for most of the season, was inactive.
Tackling 2021 FFPC Best Ball Drafts
Through almost two months of FFPC best ball drafts, Raheem Mostert is carrying an ADP of 87.8 (RB31) while Wilson's is sitting at 113.2 (RB36). That's just over a two-round difference in favor of Mostert, the soon-to-be 29-year-old running back who missed half of last season due to injury and is well beyond the age where running backs begin to decline.
If you're interested in learning more about running backs and at what age they begin to decline, you can check out a fascinating article by Blair Andrews, where he discusses exactly that.
For the fickle bunch that fantasy managers tend to be, it's interesting to see the confidence that has been placed in Mostert compared to Wilson. On one hand, drafters often hesitate to chase players who were injured in the previous season. On the other hand, they don't want the higher-priced back that could be in a timeshare or see a reduced role.
Mostert fits all of the bills for a player we should be fading in favor of a better option.
- Missed eight games
- Little dead money if cut
- Entering his age 29 season
- Outperformed the previous season by a younger, healthier back
- Likely to be in a timeshare/reduced role in 2021
The 49ers made the decision to commit to Wilson in 2021 before the 2020 playoffs had even drawn to a close. While reluctant to give Mostert more money in 2020, they had no hesitation to give some to Wilson for 2021.
If we are reading the room correctly, now is the time to fade Mostert in your FFPC best ball drafts for the younger, healthier, more efficient back.
Do yourself a favor this season, draft Jeff Wilson.
NOTE: FFPC best ball ADPs provided by FFPC Exposures and ADP tool at RotoViz.com
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