RADIO
Joe Nicely's under-the-radar DraftKings, FanDuel PGA DFS picks for the 2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude. His Horse for the Course for daily fantasy golf based on course history.
Hello PGA DFS family and welcome back to Horse For The Course! While we were away on a brief break last week, Xander Schauffele struck gold in Toyko by fending off a host of challengers to take home the prize for the good old U.S. of A. We've known for some time that a big win was coming for Schauffele and taking home an Olympic gold medal certainly qualifies!
The majority of golfers were able to rest up over the past week and the season's stretch run begins in Memphis this week at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational for the world's top-ranked players. I always love this event, so let's dive right in!
Horse For The Course is an article that highlights players in this week's field with elite course history and is part of our free PGA DFS content here at RotoBaller. For my favorite DFS plays of the week check out my Core Four article here at RotoBaller every Wednesday. It's part of our amazing PGA Premium package that includes an all-new PGA Research Station, Lineup Builder & Optimizer, and some of the best articles in the PGA DFS industry! You can sign up now using Promo Code: NICE for an extra discount at checkout!
2021 WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational
After a week off for the majority of the world's top golfers, many of the game's elite will descend on my home state of Tennessee this week. Memphis and TPC Southwind will once again play host to the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, an event that was once upon a time a "regular" PGA Tour tournament, but now comes with the elevated status of a WGC event. Thanks to the events lengthy history, we should be able to grab some juicy course history info this week.
While Xander Schauffele was busy winning a gold medal in Tokyo last week, many of the world's best players were gearing up for what is the stretch run of the PGA Tour season, as the FedEx Cup winner will be crowned in just a month's time. Next week's Wyndham Championship will serve as the final event before the FedEx Cup Playoffs kick into gear.
The defending WGC-FedEx champion, Justin Thomas, was among those participating in the Olympics last week and what type of impact the fatigue factor might play for guys that are coming over from Tokyo is anyone's guess. As with any WGC field, this event is totally stacked, and JT will attempt to repeat against a bunch of tough customers that includes fellow Olympians Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland, and Rory McIlroy, as well as those that didn't participate in Tokyo, namely Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, and Jordan Spieth.
You can also find out who the smart money is on by checking out Spencer Aguiar's PGA DFS: Vegas Report every week. And be sure to read all of our other top-notch weekly PGA DFS articles to help you win big!
The Course: TPC Southwind
Par 70 - 7,244 Yards, Greens: Bermuda, Architect: Ron Pritchard
Doglegs, bunkers, and water hazards...oh my! That's what awaits players at this former Memphis dairy farm. TPC Southwind winds through lakes, streams, and ponds with the danger of water always lurking...especially on the par-3 11th hole that is almost a 'baby brother' to the famous 17th island green at TPC Sawgrass. Many of Southwind's par-4's have dogleg tendencies, which forces the bombers to throttle down a bit, though we have seen long hitters like Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, and Brooks Koepka play very well here. Precise ball striking will be key, as the water hazards and almost 100 bunkers in play demand accuracy. Southwind is a long-ish Par 70, made all the more difficult by the winding layout.
Both these fairways and greens are tough to hit, so I will primarily be targeting ball strikers with sharp iron games. Since this is a WGC event with no cut, I'll be willing to sacrifice consistency a bit in order to target players that can rack up birdies. We have eight par-4s that are 450 yards or longer, so I'll lean towards guys that fair well on long par-4s
For an in-depth breakdown of this week's course, check out RotoBaller's PGA Premium Course Breakdown by Josh Bennett!
Recent WGC-FedEx St. Jude Champions
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
- 2018: N/A
- 2017: N/A
- 2016: N/A
The Horse
Brooks Koepka
Notable Course History: T2 (2020), Win ('19)
DraftKings Price: $10,600 FanDuel Price: $12,200
Not a huge surprise here for those that are familiar with this event, as Brooks Koepka has been downright dominant in the WGC FedEx over the last two years, taking home the crown in 2019 and logging a in-it-until-the-end T2 last year. We know that Brooksy traditionally only gets up for the majors, but he's historically shown an affinity for this event, posting a T2 back in 2016 and a T3 in 2015 when it was just a "regular" PGA Tour event. A recent top-five outing at the Travelers is also encouraging.
Koepka often gets painted as a "bomber" - and he is of course super long off the tee - but it isn't really a fair portrayal of his game. No, Brooks is playing his best golf when the irons are firing and he's certainly has them dialed in over the last couple of months. The four-time major winner has now gained strokes on Approach in each of his last five starts and grades out second in this elite field in SG: Ball Striking over the last 24 rounds.
The Ponies
Louis Oosthuizen
Notable Course History: T6 ('20), T20 ('19)
DraftKings Price: $9,600 FanDuel Price: $11,200
How good is this dude playing right now? Louis heads to Memphis on an absolute tear. He's finished T3 or better in four of his last five starts, and oh by the way, three of those events were major championships. The South African's current year is eerily similar to Rickie Fowler's 2014, a year in which Fowler finished inside the top-five in all four majors, but failed to win any of them. That's obviously the big knock on Oosthuizen...he doesn't ever seem to win. However, with a sub-$10k price tag, I'm still more than happy to lock him into my DFS lineups, especially on a TPC Southwind layout that has proven to be a terrific fit for him in previous trips to Memphis. Like Xander Schauffele last week in the Olympics, if Oosthuizen keeps putting himself in position, he'll eventually get a win.
Daniel Berger
Notable Course History: T2 ('20), Win ('16 & '17)
DraftKings Price: $9,200 FanDuel Price: $10,900
If we're talking about things from a course history perspective (luckily, this is a course history article!), then Daniel Berger jumps to the top of any conversation when discussing TPC Southwind. Berger went back-to-back on the Memphis layout in 2016 and '17 to capture the first two PGA Tour victories of his career. He's since added to that total by winning the Charles Schwab Challenge last year and the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am earlier this season.
Berger demonstrated that he still has a taste for Southwind in last year's WGC FedEx, posting a T2 against the stouter competition that comes with the elite nature of WGC fields. All signs point to continued success for him this week, as in addition to the elite course history in comes into the event in ultra-sharp form, having posted top-10 finishes in two of his last three starts (U.S. Open & Open Championship. He grades out fifth in SG: Approach over his last 12 rounds and has traditionally thrived on short golf courses. Berger grades out second in the field in SG: Total on courses carding out less than 7,200 yards.
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Matt Fitzpatrick
Notable Course History: T6 ('20), T4 ('19)
DraftKings Price: $8,800 FanDuel Price: $10,000
The Englishman often pops up for me on courses where length isn't a prerequisite for success. That's the case this week on a TPC Southwind layout that Matt Fitzgerald has successfully navigated each of the last two years, posting a T6 last year and a T4 in 2019. Fitzy got off to a rip-roaring start this year, logging two top-fives and two top-10s over his first six 2021 starts on U.S. soil. While his play has leveled off a tiny bit, he still comes into the week off two solid European showings at the Scottish Open (2nd) and Open Championship (T26). His precision off the tee helps him to rank eighth in this week's field in Fairways Gained and that accuracy will be a huge asset on this tricky Tennessee layout.
Harris English
Notable Course History: T10 ('17), Win ('13)
DraftKings Price: $7,600 FanDuel Price: $9,100
I get that this is an elite, limited-field event and I know that the sites have to put out a somewhat playable salary scale, but Harris English jumps out to me as drastically underpriced this week. English hasn't played this event since it ascended to WGC status, but if we jump back in time to when this was the plain jane St. Jude Invitational we'll find that the UGA alum has had some success on this layout. He won here in 2013 and snagged a T10 in the 2017 edition. That course history, coupled with the fact that he's been on a dynamic run that includes a win at the Travelers and a T3 at the U.S. Open over the last six weeks, puts English near the top of my value plays this week.
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