May 25, 2024

RotoBrady provides his picks and analysis for betting on every game of Week 9 of the UFL season.

Well, that was not a good week. As has been the pattern--these things happen, especially when Arlington whiffs so bad as the underdog in the week after a 47-point explosion for their first win in what has become a miserable season. As of now, as far as stakes for the 2024 regular season are concerned, there is not a lot left. All four playoff spots have been clinched by Birmingham, Michigan, St. Louis, and San Antonio; and due to a scheduling snafu, the Michigan Panthers couldn't even make an effort towards a home field advantage in the USFL Championship Game, because Ford Field is booked. The only thing truly up for grabs is the homefield advantage in the XFL Championship, and it would at the very least be a huge deal for the Brahmas not to have to play in front of 30,000+ of Missouri's most rabid. This probably couldn't have worked out any better for the UFL brass--Birmingham in all likelihood will be playing for another title. The gate-smashing Battlehawks will face off against the Rock's squad. Whoever wins out of that matchup, they can live with--though the Battlehawks playing at home for the title would be a huge deal. And, if Birmingham loses to Michigan, it is a much better shot for one of the promotion-friendly XFL teams to steal the spotlight.

There is at least one thing that every player in the league might be playing for this week: themselves. As shameless as that might sound on its own, the fact is, we al know that there will be a mad dash of Spring Football players signing with NFL organizations in some capacity at the end of the season. There are two weeks left in the 2024 UFL season, and every player who will see the field has at least that much time left to compile as much tape as they can and build their case for a transition--or merely a chance at the next level. Combine that with the logical conclusion that playoff-clinching teams could take a more conservative approach before the playoffs, and we potentially have a recipe for another wacky week. So take the opportunity of this Memorial Day weekend to kick back and recharge your UFL batteries, and let's get down to making picks for these Week 9 matchups.

Power Rankings

1. Birmingham Stallions
2. St. Louis Battlehawks
3. Michigan Panthers
4. San Antonio Brahmas
5. D.C. Defenders
6. Arlington Renegades
7. Houston Roughnecks
8. Memphis Showboats

Week 9 Picks

St. Louis Battlehawks at Arlington Renegades (Saturday, May 25th, at 12PM ET)

Arlington (+3), Over 46, ML (+145)

Arlington really let me down last week in their in-state rivalry matchup with San Antonio--losing 20-15 in a game that (once again) they could've had. As far as defense and the play of Luis Perez, Sal Cannella, and Tyler Vaughns in the passing game is concerned, the Renegades made a good showing. But De'Veon Smith only runs for 38 yards on ten carries after a monster performance in Week 7, and they only spread five more carries across five different ball-carriers for a combined 27 yards? That is purely unforgivable when you have Lindsey Scott Jr. and Devin Darrington to work with. Arlington got absolutely torched by Anthony McFarland, and that could be problematic if they can't put a pin in Manny Wilkins making another start while A.J. McCarron recovers from injury--not to mention the up and down play of Wayne Gallman II and Jacob Saylors. The Battlehawks scored a victory of field and spirit last week in a clean sweep of the D.C. Defenders, and they still managed to score 26 points despite a significantly-slowed offensive pace. The special teams is the secret weapon: like many UFL squads, they sport a strong kicker, and behind Darrius Shepherd, they are always starting drives in prime field position.

I cannot believe that I am going to let myself go down this road again. The first game in St. Louis was a squeaker, and I think that this matchup is designed to be close, and even with McCarron slated as QB2, I still think that Arlington will make enough mistakes to put the Battlehawks in scoring position often enough for this over to hit. Arlington has had themselves in so many games this year that I can't let last week throw me off of the trail. A rush-heavy St. Louis team can be stopped, and I think that they will once again struggle with the Renegade passing game. Hopefully, Arlington leans even just a little more on the backfield. Either way, I think at home, the spot is tricky enough for the game to end within three, with an Arlington ML pick being very much in play. I might end up looking very stupid on this one, but give me a final score of 28-26--but for Bob Stoops' crew this time. Because why not?

Birmingham Stallions at San Antonio Brahmas (Saturday, May 25th, at 3PM ET)

Birmingham (-8.5), Over 44

It has been closer shaving than usual for Skip Holtz and the Birmingham Stallions over the last two weeks, beating the Battlehawks and Roughnecks by a combined 11 points (while scoring 65 in total). It is apparent--this is not exactly the same defense without Scooby Wright and when guys like Mark Gilbert are out of the lineup; but Adrian Martinez, Ricky Person Jr. (with C.J. Marable inactive), and the whole of their receiving options continue to shred the opposition. On the other hand, it has been a long time since the San Antonio Brahmas have been a high-powered offense. Last week against Arlington, they scored 20 in the first half but then got shut out in the second. Quinten Dormady looked like the 2023 Orlando Guardians version of himself, passing 17/25 for 320 yards (18.8 per completion) and two touchdowns. Anthony McFarland might have only ran for 18 yards on nine tries, but he torched Arlington with three receptions for 118 yards and two scores. TE Cody Latimer also ended the day with over 100 yards receiving, and the trio of Jordan Mosley, Jordan Williams, and Tavante Beckett continues to shoulder the majority of the defensive load.

Darius Phillips will at least be back on the field for the Brahmas, but even though this will be a matchup between two playoff teams, I think the spread is very accurate of how this game should go. The Brahmas getting shut out in the second half last week is incredibly concerning--you cannot have stretches of time like that against Birmingham. I know that the Stallions have played in a couple of close games, but my thinking is more this: I still don't think that San Antonio can score more than 20 or so with the way they are currently playing, but I do think Birmingham can score in the neighborhood of 30+ again, no problem. Even with Anthony McFarland back in play and Dormady coming off a strong performance (Chase Garbers is back--slotted at QB2), we just haven't seen A.J. Smith's offense making the most of their opportunities in weeks. I see a final score range of 30-20 to 35-24--so either way, lay the points with Birmingham and go over.

D.C. Defenders at Memphis Showboats (Sunday, May 26th, at 2:30PM ET)

D.C. (-5), Under 45.5

Yet another loss for the Memphis Showboats, but last week's 24-18 outing against the Michigan Panthers was actually respectable. When Josh Love entered the game, he was actually very efficient, and the likes of Daewood Davis and Sage Surratt had good days receiving, but the backfield continued to struggle for every inch. If you would have told me that Darius Victor would struggle this badly in 2024, I wouldn't have believed it, but that is what happens when your offensive line can't handle themselves. This week, Case Cookus is inactive, and surprisingly, Troy Williams will be getting the start over Love. Also, Vontae Diggs is active, which is important for the worst defense in the league. The Defenders are coming off of a 26-21 heart-breaking loss to the Battlehawks, putting the nail in the coffin for their postseason hopes. Jordan Ta'amu had a lame 23-40 passing day for only 196 yards, and tossed as many picks as he did TDs (two), but he will be the starter again in Week 9. D.C. did at least have a solid day on the ground, compiling 89 yards on 17 tries with Darius Hagans leading the way.

The Defenders had big issues with Manny Wilkins last week when he chose to run. That could mean that Troy Williams is set to have a good day, but again, I just do not trust John DeFilippo enough to make that decision, so I feel the chances will be unfortunately few and far between. The fact that this game will be in Memphis and not Audi Field is a nice boost for the Showboats, and I can see this game teetering right on the edge of the spread and O/U. If Josh Love gets in the game and clicks, I could see this being a 26-23 win for the Defenders. If it is Troy Williams all game in a passing scheme, I could see a 24 or 26 to 16 win for D.C. I think it is probably somewhere in the middle--so give me a 25-19 win for Reggie Barlow and company.

Michigan Panthers at Houston Roughnecks (Sunday, May 26th, at 2:30PM ET)

Houston (+4), Over 40, ML (+160)

Last week at least showed us what life is really like for the Michigan Panthers without Frank Ginda AND now Wes Hills for the rest of the season. A 24-18 win over Memphis is an alright result when your playoff future is already sealed, and Matthew Colburn II has taken complete charge of the backfield, now ranking third in the league with 388 yards. My biggest concern with this team moving forward is a department outside of the two areas that took a significant loss: last week, Brian Lewerke gained 82 yards on 6/11 passing with a touchdown. Bryce Perkins on the other hand completed seven of nine passes for 106 yards and a TD, also running the ball nine times for 55 yards. Despite this, Danny Etling is currently slated as QB1 in his return for Michigan over Bryce Perkins. Come postseason play, Mike Nolan better be going with Bryce Perkins if he truly wants to try for a championship. It looks like Reid Sinnett will be getting the start over Nolan Henderson at QB this week for Houston, but I would be surprised if we didn't see both at some point. That is what happened last week when the pair combined for a mediocre 196 yards, one score, and one INT on 15/27 passing. The running game made up for the passing game's flaws in an actually impressive 35-28 loss to Birmingham last week, as Mark Thompson (54 yards), T.J. Pledger (39 yards), and Henderson (34 yards) each gained efficiently. The defense got shredded last week, but I can forgive that for almost anyone against the Stallions.

I think the oddsmakers are baiting us here to go with Michigan and the over. They've got me on the hook for one of those. This is a game that with very questionable motivation all around. Michigan won last week in spite of their questionable quarterback usage. Houston somehow scored 28 and kept it within a touchdown against Birmingham in spite of their questionable QB depth chart. I think a good Mark Thompson day could be all that Houston needs to at least keep the game within a field goal here in a losing effort, but the contrasting motivations at play in this one tell me that a bold Roughnecks ML play is viable. If the Houston defense can capitalize off of some Michigan mistakes, all the better for running up that point total, and Jake Bates is netting points for the Panthers anywhere within 60 yards. Give me a final score range of 23-20 to 26-23 for Michigan OR Houston.

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