X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Well-Known Players With Fantasy Basketball Bust Potential in 2024-25

John breaks down five bust candidates that aren't set up well to meet their ADPs in the 2024-2025 NBA season. These are five players to avoid in your fantasy drafts.

The only constant thing in the NBA is change, which applies to every team and player. Predicting how certain things will change is hugely important to help identify players who won't produce the level of play suggested by their ADPs. ADP is probably the most important tool that people use on draft day.

Whether or not people notice it, it has a big influence on how people draft. Players who fall a few spots are seen as good values while drafting someone whose ADP is even a round or two below their draft spot is seen as a reach. Some players may seem like good values or just great overall picks, but they have big bust potential for a variety of reasons.

S From situation to injury issues to age and more, there are a ton of reasons why players can bust. If you don't try to identify busts, you may be stuck with one of them. So who are five players that could fail to live up to their ADPs this season?

Upgrade To VIP: Win more with our NBA and DFS Premium Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! Jamie Calandro and Dan Palyo lead the RotoBaller team in 2024-25 with exclusive DFS picks, Prop picks and more. Gain VIP access to our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station, DFS Cheat Sheets and VIP Chat Rooms. Go Premium, Win More!

 

Anthony Davis - PF/C

The first round of fantasy drafts has the biggest potential for busts. Because players drafted that highly have such high ceilings, a disappointing season has the biggest chance of sinking your fantasy team. Los Angeles Lakers center Anthony Davis is projected to be a first-rounder, with an ADP of No. 8.

The surest way a star player can fail to live up to expectations is through injuries. Davis is now 31 years old, and while he enjoyed a healthy 76 games played in 2023, that hadn't been the case for the previous half-decade. He averaged under 50 games played per season in the five seasons previous to 2023-2024.

Last season seems like an aberration in that context. And a player who is a near-universal first-rounder needs to play for a lot more than 50 games to return value. The players around Davis who have a much better history of staying healthy seem like far safer bets to pick so early in the draft. Davis' injury history is insanely long.

 

Kawhi Leonard - SF/PF

Los Angeles Clippers small forward Kawhi Leonard makes this list for some of the same reasons as Davis, with a few wrinkles. Like Davis, Leonard has a long history of injuries, but it seems like he in particular is constantly hurt. Leonard was part of a load-management regime that led to new NBA rules regarding player participation.

He's on the wrong side of 30, and the injury issues aren't going to magically evaporate. Like Davis, he could have a miracle mostly healthy season, but betting on that by taking him isn't the best idea. In many leagues, big-name value players like Leonard are taken significantly before their ADPs, but even at his ADP of 38, it's risky to take him.

Many players tend to get drafted as if they'll have mostly healthy seasons, so it's a better value proposition to take players who have been healthy consistently over the past few seasons than someone who's as injury-prone as Leonard.

 

Jalen Brunson

New York Knicks point guard Jalen Brunson had a ridiculous season last year, no doubt. But his past production is likely unsustainable, and it isn't even because he's not good or had a fluky season. The Knicks added a ton of talent this offseason, trading for both shooting guard Mikal Bridges and center Karl-Anthony Towns.

The scoring workload for the Knicks will be much more distributed this season. Last year, power forward Julius Randle missed much of the season due to injury, and Brunson had to carry the team on his back. He should have less burden this year. That doesn't mean he's not still a great player, but just that he won't be asked to put forth ridiculous efforts.

The Knicks should be a much more balanced offense, which isn't great for fantasy. Brunson was the 10th leading scorer last season and has an ADP of 16, and with two new stars on his team, there's no way he'll be asked to shoot as much this season. While it makes sense to draft players based on skill, opportunity should be considered, too.

 

Joel Embiid - C

You may be starting to notice a pattern here. Philadelphia 76ers star center Joel Embiid is utterly dominant when he's on the court. When he's on isn't as often as it could be, and is alarmingly low on average throughout his career for someone with an ADP of 6. It's difficult to win consistently when your first-round draft pick is injured.

Embiid played 39 games in the 2023-2024 season, yet he's being drafted like he'll have a mostly healthy season. His history with injuries is incredibly problematic, and at an ADP of 6th overall, he's a huge risk. The 76ers also picked up star forward Paul George, a prolific scorer, who can carry the load when Embiid is out. Tyrese Maxe's presence won't help, either.

NBA teams care about winning basketball games, making the playoffs, and bringing the healthiest possible team into the postseason. Embiid at 30 should be load-managed and not made to play through injury if they want to achieve that goal. Picking him in the first round doesn't make much sense in fantasy.

 

Tyrese Maxey - PG

Yet another 76er makes this list, for somewhat but not entirely related reasons. In the case that his teammate Embiid does stay healthy for a good chunk of the season, the presence of Embiid and George will undoubtedly mean Maxey sees fewer overall opportunities to score fantasy points.

Maxey is a star talent, but his ADP sits at 24, and he's coming off a season where Embiid played 31 fewer games than he did. Games with George and Embiid will hurt Maxey's usage rate, and it's unlikely to reach the 27.3% it was last season. Should both of them play exactly 39 games together and miss the rest also together, the third-year pro's ADP becomes more reasonable.

You're probably better off drafting players that dominate their teams' fantasy scoring opportunities more like Sacramento Kings points guard De'Aaron Fox, who sits just three spots higher.

 



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy basketball mobile app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, lineup notifications & DFS articles. All free!

More Fantasy Basketball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cody Brundage

Mansur Abdul-Malik Defeats Cody Brundage By Technical Decision
Oumar Sy

Suffers His First Loss
Alonzo Menifield

Scores Upset Win
Alex Bowman

Delivers Bravura Performance After Michigan Injury
Tyler Reddick

Inexplicably Mediocre on His Once-Best Track Type
John Hunter Nemechek

Canny Strategy Gives John Hunter Nemechek Best Career Road Course Finish
Cole Custer

Earns Best Finish Since Cup Series Comeback at Mexico City
Grant Holmes

Punches Out 15 in Loss
Elly De La Cruz

Goes Yard in Fourth Straight Game
Will Vest

Dealing With Finger Injury
Jackson Merrill

Placed on Seven-Day Concussion Injured List
J.J. McCarthy

Looking "a Lot Stronger"
Shohei Ohtani

Will Be Dodgers' Starting Pitcher Monday
Roki Sasaki

Shut Down From Throwing
Garrett Wilson

Receives New Contract Offer
Jordan Hicks

Headed to Boston
Kyle Harrison

Traded to Red Sox
Travis Kelce

Slims Down During the Offseason
Trey Hendrickson

Bengals Restart Contract Discussions
Brady House

Nationals Promoting Brady House to Major Leagues
Rafael Devers

Traded to San Francisco
Logan Gilbert

to Start on Monday
Jayden Higgins

Impresses During Minicamp
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

on the Move to Memphis
Cole Anthony

Dealt to the Grizzlies
Seattle Seahawks

DeMarcus Lawrence Making an Impression With his New Team
Isaiah Simmons

Being Used Exclusively as a Linebacker
Tyler Mahle

Placed on 15-Day Injured List
Travis Etienne Jr.

the Jaguars Lead Back?
Luis Robert Jr.

Scratched with Thumb Soreness
Desmond Bane

Traded to Orlando
Byron Buxton

Scratched from Sunday's Lineup
Daniel Jones

the Favorite in Colts QB Competition?
Brendan Donovan

Returns to the Lineup
Steven Adams

Rockets Agree to Three-Year Contract Extension
Royce Lewis

Hits 10-Day Injured List
Ty Dillon

Is a Respectable Cap Flexiblity-Focused DFS Option For Mexico City
Corey Perry

Produces 10th Postseason Goal
Connor McDavid

Scores First Finals Goal
John Hunter Nemechek

Is John Hunter Nemechek Worth Rostering In Mexico City DFS Lineups?
Shohei Ohtani

Blasts Two Homers in Win
Sam Bennett

Nets Another Road Goal in Game 5 Win
Eetu Luostarinen

Earns Two Points Saturday
Michael King

Not Making Progress
Brad Marchand

Pots Two Goals in Game 5 Victory
Jackson Merrill

Removed Early on Saturday
Sergei Bobrovsky

Ties NHL Record with 10th Road Win
Ross Chastain

Trackhouse Racing's Mexico Focus Makes Ross Chastain a Leading Contender for the Win
Kyle Busch

One of Two Past Mexico City Winners in the Field
Ryan Preece

Earns Surprising Front-Row Start
Austin Cindric

Not as Strong of a Road Racer as People Think
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Stronger on Infield Road Courses Than Purpose-Built Ones
Joey Logano

Seemingly Alternating Between Good and Mediocre Races
Brad Keselowski

One of the Few Drivers with Mexico City Experience
Denny Hamlin

Ryan Truex Makes First Cup Series Start Since 2014
Erik Jones

Mexico City Will Likely be a Struggle for Erik Jones
Noah Gragson

Front Row Motorsports' Speed May Make Noah Gragson a Decent DFS Option
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Road Courses Are Ricky Stenhouse Jr.'s Worst Track Type
Riley Herbst

Surprisingly Outqualifies 23XI Racing Teammates at Mexico City
Cody Ware

a Very Experienced Road Racer but Still a Long Shot
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen the Heavy Favorite to Win in Mexico City
Christopher Bell

the Chalk DFS Play in Mexico City
Giancarlo Stanton

Likely Returning Early Next Week
Spencer Strider

Registers 13 Strikeouts
Emeka Egbuka

"the Talk" of Bucs Minicamp
Evander Kane

Drops to Fourth Line Saturday
Kasperi Kapanen

Won't Play on Saturday
Calvin Pickard

Starts Game 5 for Oilers
Jaxson Dart

Working as No. 2 QB During Offseason Workouts
Xavier Gipson

Roster Spot Could be in Jeopardy
Josh Reynolds

the Front-Runner for WR2 Duties
Garrett Wilson

Stock Up This Offseason
Breece Hall

Motivated Going into 2025 Season
Brandon Aiyuk

Making Good Progress From Knee Injury
Keon Coleman

Inconsistent at Minicamp
Mitchell Trubisky

Not a Lock for Backup Job
Dalton Kincaid

Adds Strength and Bulk
James Cook

a Full Participant in Mandatory Minicamp
Tyrese Haliburton

Struggles in Friday's Loss to OKC
Chet Holmgren

Dominates the Glass in Game 4
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Leads the Way in Game 4
Jalen Williams

Has a Quality Showing on Friday Night
Anthony Richardson

Should be Fine for Training Camp
Russell Westbrook

to Decline Player Option
Kevin Durant

Trade Could Happen in the "Next Few Days"
Joaquin Buckley

Set For Main Event
Kamaru Usman

An Underdog At UFC Atlanta
Miranda Maverick

Set For Co-Main Event
Rose Namajunas

Looks To Bounce Back
Andre Petroski

Looks To Extend His Win Streak To Four
Edmen Shahbazyan

A Favorite At UFC Atlanta
Raoni Barcelos

Set To Take On Former Champion
Cody Garbrandt

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Mansur Abdul-Malik

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Cody Brundage

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Alonzo Menifield

Opens Up UFC Atlanta Main Card
Oumar Sy

Looks To Remain Undefeated
Connor Hellebuyck

Wins Vezina And Hart Trophies
Aleksander Barkov

Records Two Power-Play Assists Thursday
Sam Reinhart

Collects Three Points in Thursday's Loss
Matthew Tkachuk

Notches Three Points in Losing Effort
Calvin Pickard

Joins Exclusive List with Thursday's Win
Mattias Ekholm

Logs Two Assists in Comeback Victory
Leon Draisaitl

Delivers Victory in Overtime Thursday
Myles Turner

Playing Through Illness
Reed Sheppard

Will Play in the NBA Summer League
Kevin Durant

Deal Could Come Sooner Rather Than Later
Dorian Finney-Smith

Undergoes Ankle Surgery
Anze Kopitar

Wins Third Lady Byng Trophy
Sergei Bobrovsky

Heading Out for Win No. 15
John Klingberg

Won't Play in Game 4 Against Panthers
Viktor Arvidsson

Sits Out Game 4 Against Panthers
Stuart Skinner

Remains in Oilers Crease Thursday
Jalen Williams

Leads Thunder in Scoring Wednesday
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Settles for 24 Points in Game 3 Loss
Pascal Siakam

Does Everything for Pacers Wednesday Night
Tyrese Haliburton

Gets Close to Triple-Double in Game 3 Win
Bennedict Mathurin

Leads All Scorers with 27 Points Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Has Second Offseason Surgery
Jaylen Brown

Undergoes Successful Knee Procedure
Matt McCarty

Comes Off Season-Best Showing at RBC Canadian Open
Justin Thomas

Desperate to Continue Good 2025 Season
Jon Rahm

Seeks Revenge at U.S. Open
Tom Kim

Aiming for Improvement in U.S. Open
PGA

Sungjae Im Expects Solid Performance at Oakmont
Brian Harman

Aims to Rebound From the Memorial
Tony Finau

has Been Up and Down at U.S. Open
Patrick Cantlay

Hoping This is the Year at Oakmont
Akshay Bhatia

Improving in Time for U.S. Open
Xander Schauffele

Primed for Another Major Championship Run
Cameron Young

May Struggle at U.S. Open
Collin Morikawa

Eyeing Third Major Championship Title
Matt Fitzpatrick

Seeks to Avenge Oakmont Collapse
Jordan Spieth

Can Contend at Oakmont
Shane Lowry

a Strong Value Play at U.S. Open
Brooks Koepka

Seeks Another Major Win at Oakmont
Viktor Hovland

Still Can Improve at U.S. Open
Michael Kim

a Boom-or-Bust Value Play at U.S. Open
Russell Henley

Looking to Play the Weekend at Oakmont
Tyrrell Hatton

a Safe Option at U.S. Open
Bryson DeChambeau

Eyeing Third U.S. Open Title
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF