Five Hitter Breakouts for OBP - Infield Draft Values for Fantasy Baseball

1 year ago by Justin Raffone

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2. Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays

3. Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

4. Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

5. Vaughn Grissom, Atlanta Braves

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On-base percentage. It has become a go-to statistic in baseball and fantasy baseball. It gives a better indication than average for if a player is giving his team an opportunity to put a run on the board. Some fantasy baseball owners are forward-thinking when it comes to stats and OBP is a step forward from average.

You can use OBP in place of average in your league and it will give certain hitters a boost in their value. Average tells one story, whereas you get a bigger story told by OBP. Using OBP may promote a fringe fantasy player to a starting fantasy player. Some already hit for average and that helps their OBP, but most of the time you’re going to need a player to draw his walks to help in that category.

This list will look at five infielders who are bound to breakout in 2023 OBP leagues. They all should be familiar names within the baseball community, as all have recently been top prospects. But these five have yet to go through a true breakout season and 2023 should be it.

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Vinnie Pasquantino, Kansas City Royals

This one feels like cheating because Pasquantino more than held his own in the 2022 season. Over 298 plate appearances, he hit 10 home runs with a .450 slugging percentage and .376 xwOBA. He hit a combined 28 homers between AAA and MLB in 145 games. Pasquantino hit the ball in the air 40% of the time and had a hard-hit rate of 46.9%.

The reason the lefty-hitting first baseman makes this list is that he has yet to play a full season; therefore, I believe he still must prove himself, and breaking out over a full season will do that. So, is a breakout coming? Check. Now, the next thing needed to make this list is good at getting on base. You can check that off the list for Pasquantino as well.

The 25-year-old walked 11.7% of the time in the majors in 2022. That was down from his 12.8% at AAA to begin the season, but still an excellent number. That walk rate led to a .383 OBP for Pasquantino. He hit .295 on the year and had a .306 BABIP, so his OBP is both walks and hits-driven.

ZiPS DC predicts a walk rate of 10%, and even if it does drop down to that, Pasquantino’s OBP will still be above-average. He’s currently projected for a .275 average and .352 OBP but with his plus-hit tool and a great eye, I could see a repeat of last year's numbers over the full season. Combine that with 25-homer potential, and the former Old Dominion Monarch makes for a great all-around fantasy play.

Wander Franco, Tampa Bay Rays

It might be hard for some to believe a former No. 1 overall prospect could make a list of players who haven’t broken out yet, but here Franco is. Despite being a .282 hitter in 153 MLB games, Franco is still looking to have his breakout season and that could occur in 2023.

The soon-to-be 22-year-old has all the tools in the world, though his walk rate may be his worst one. Even with a just-below-league-average 7.7% BB%, Franco has a career .337 on-base percentage. The reason he should be helpful in OBP leagues is because that number should conceivably rise with more seasoning. Franco had an OBP above 11% at the age of 18 in the minors, and if he can push that percentage above eight, he’ll be one of the best shortstops in terms of OBP.

Last season, of the shortstops with over 300 plate appearances, just six had an OBP of .339 or better. Franco’s .328 wasn’t anything to write home about, but I see it increasing this season, as do most projection systems. ZiPS is the lowest on Franco, projecting a 7.6% walk rate and .336 OBP, so even a few more walks will get him to that .339 mark. I think I’m more in line with ATC’s .286 average and .344 OBP.

Combine the excellent OBP for a shortstop with at least 15 homers and possibly a dozen steals, and Franco is looking to breakout in 2023. If he can add in some RBI and runs, he will be a great pick at his current ADP. I see a talented player too many people have given up on after a slow start to his career; one that can help your OBP at shortstop.

Year	BB%	OBP	Projection System
2021	7.8%	.347	-
2022	7.6%	.328	-
2023*	7.9%*	.344*	ATC

*=Projected

Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox

Casas walked an absurd 20% of the time with the Red Sox last season. He also played in just 27 games, so no, he’s probably not the second coming of Juan Soto. He does have a track record of walking in the minors at a high clip, however. In 2021, Casas walked 14.9% of the time at AA. 14.5% was his walk rate in 2022 in AAA.

The lefty-hitting first baseman walked so much in the majors that his .197 average was offset by his .358 OBP. He obtained a .382 OBP at AAA last season and a .395 OBP at AA in 2021. Combine that with his ISO number and a low BABIP in 2022, and it’s looking like Casas is a great breakout candidate this season.

The former first-round pick had a .211 ISO during his cup of coffee. That was slightly above his minor-league numbers, but nothing extraordinarily out of reach. ATC projects a .192 ISO on the year, for comparison's sake. With a 13% walk rate and a .345 OBP projection, Casas is a good grab for OBP leagues.

Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers

And we’re back to a player without a full year under his belt. Torkelson appeared in 110 games for Detroit last season and had a measly .203/.285/8/28/38/0 line. So why did he make this list of breakout players that will help your OBP fantasy baseball league?

Torkelson had some numbers in his brief stint in the majors and in his time in the minors that I liked. His .255 BABIP in the majors tells me his .203 average was partially bad luck. He had a closer-to-league average .294 BABIP in AAA before being called up and that saw his average sit at .229. That, in turn, let his 14.8% walk rate play to a .348 OBP.

The former No. 1 overall pick was said to be one of the best college hitters in the last decade, so he should be able to figure out how to get that average up, in turn raising his OBP. His 15 degrees launch angle, 40.7% fly ball rate, and 41.4% hard-hit percentage entail a jump in homers to come for Torkelson.

I’m truly more bullish on the first baseman than most projection systems. I want to give him a .255/.335/22/76/68/1 line and most of those numbers are out of reach for most systems. If he can drop his strikeout rate and raise his walk rate, this will be a guy who breaks out and many will forget about the poor start to his career.

Vaughn Grissom, Atlanta Braves

Currently, with second base eligibility, Grissom should be the starting shortstop for the Atlanta Braves this season. He moved from High-A to MLB last year and was a productive bat for the Braves down the stretch. He played only 41 games in the majors but hit .291/.353/.440 with a 7.1% walk rate.

That BB% would have put him 13th among qualifying second basemen last year. Though not a great number, it will play with his average being what it is. His .291 average was driven by a .350 BABIP but he's been able to keep a high number in that category throughout his brief minor-league career.

Grissom had 86 ESPN points from the day of his debut through the end of the year. That was good for 15th-best among second basemen, so while not an elite option, he would be a nice middle infield option.

ATC projections are in line with a good middle infield option and I'm right there with those projections. ATC calls for 13 home runs and 15 steals to go along with a .274/.335/.423 line. If he can increase his BB% closer to the 9.3% he held at High-A last season, that OBP will look even better and turn him into an even better option.

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