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With one month of FFPC best ball drafts in the books, Zachary Krueger takes a look at February ADP and identifies players who could be of high fantasy football value in upcoming drafts.
Only the truest of degenerates spend the first few weeks after the Super Bowl participating in drafts for a season that's seven months out.
As a self-admitted degenerate, you should know that you're in good company as you prepare to sit down, read this article, and figure out what players you'll be targeting in your March FFPC best ball drafts.
Regardless of the stakes, winning your draft is the ultimate goal. These early drafts present a tremendous opportunity to get players at what may be some of their best values for the entire season.
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Forecasting Trends
While capturing these values requires a little bit of foresight and accurately predicting the future, the right instincts could lead you to fantasy victory. Take Austin Ekeler for example.
While injuries largely resulted in a down season for Ekeler in 2020, there's no denying that those who drafted him in February felt the value after Melvin Gordon left to sign with the Broncos in March. On the flip side, those who thought Phillip Lindsay was locked in for another 1,000-yard season in February likely had their doubts after the Gordon signing.
A player surviving free agency is only half of the battle in the NFL offseason. The NFL Draft can present a massive swing in player ADP, as we saw in 2020 when the consensus top-four running backs saw their ADP dip after the Chiefs selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire as the first running back off the board.
With the first month of FFPC best ball drafts officially in the books, let's take a look at some current player ADPs, and identify some buys as we head into March.
Antonio Gibson - 27.3 ADP (RB15)
Antonio Gibson entered his rookie campaign as one of the more controversial rookies of the class. A former wide receiver converted to running back, Gibson spent two seasons at the University of Memphis and recorded a grand total of 77 touches (44 receptions, 33 rushes).
At the NFL Scouting Combine, Gibson proved himself an elite athlete with requisite size and speed for an NFL running back.
Through the first three weeks of the season, Gibson averaged 12.7 opportunities/gm and 11.2 PPR/gm. From Week 4 to the end of the season, his opportunities jumped to 16.0/gm while his PPR/gm hit 15.7 (RB12 - min. 5 games).
In an article I wrote over at RotoViz last month, I also talked about Gibson's historic start in regards to rookie running back efficiency.
As a rookie, Gibson finished the 2020 campaign as the overall RB14 (206.2 PPR) and was seventh in total touchdowns (11). It's also worth noting that he suffered a foot injury just minutes into his Week 13 game against the Steelers, which resulted in two missed games, and limited action in Weeks 16 and 17. If not for those missed games, we could be talking about Gibson as a top-five fantasy back as a rookie.
Whether you like to start your drafts with a Robust RB approach, or even prefer to go WR-TE or TE-WR out the gate, Gibson presents tremendous value early in the third round of FFPC best ball drafts.
Backs like Aaron Jones and Nick Chubb who are both going in the top-12 could see their ADPs drop. Jones if he goes to an underwhelming location, and Chubb if fantasy drafters wake up and realize his timeshare with Kareem Hunt still exists.
The Gibson value could be short-lived. Get it while it's there.
Robby Anderson - 107.4 ADP (WR39)
Robby Anderson reunited with his former college coach Matt Rhule when he joined the Carolina Panthers on a two-year, $20 million deal last offseason. Once viewed as nothing more than a big-bodied field stretcher, Anderson shocked the league and fantasy owners when he finished 2020 with the eighth-most targets (138) and receptions (95).
Anderson finished with career highs in targets and receptions, while also going over 1,000-yards for the first time in his career (1,096). His 225.3 PPR were also a career high, while his overall WR20 finish was his best since 2017 (WR18).
The case for Anderson is a simple one. Through the first month of drafting season, fantasy managers aren't valuing him highly enough. If volume is king in fantasy, then Anderson is either a prince or at least seated at the round table.
On a per-game basis, Anderson averaged 8.6 targets/gm (min. 8 games). Of the wide receivers ahead of him in targets/gm from 2020, no receiver has an ADP lower than 59.4 (Diontae Johnson - WR23).
As a matter of fact, no receiver who averaged 8.0+ targets/gm in 2020 is being taken outside of the top-100 with the exception of Anderson.
Considering his performance last season, there may not be a better wide receiver value in FFPC drafts right now than Anderson. Fellow wide receiver Curtis Samuel is likely to be playing elsewhere in 2021, and while the quarterback situation with Teddy Bridgewater isn't great, it can't get much worse.
If you want to ensure you get him, there is absolutely nothing wrong with being a full round ahead of ADP in March in order to acquire Anderson.
Rob Gronkowski - 160.4 ADP (TE24)
It's hard to believe that a future Hall of Fame tight end who miraculously finished all 16 games is being drafted as a low-end TE2 in an FFPC tight end premium league, but here we are. Rob Gronkowski finished 2020 as the overall TE13 in FFPC scoring (175.3 PPR), and enjoyed seven weeks as a top-12 TE.
A year in retirement didn't appear to do much to hamper Gronk in his return to Tampa Bay with Tom Brady. He managed to suit up for all 16 games for the first time since 2011 and had his highest point total since 2017.
There's nothing that suggests that Gronkowski or Brady are eyeing retirement in 2021, nor is it likely that the likes of Cameron Brate or O.J. Howard (torn Achilles Week 4) usurp the soon-to-be 32-year old tight end.
RotoBaller's 2021 projections for Gronkowski are a receiving line of 62/750/5. When you factor in the FFPC's tight end premium scoring (1.5 PPR), that would be 198.0 PPR. For some perspective, Mark Andrews was the FFPC TE6 in 2020 with 199.1 PPR.
Drafting Gronk as the overall TE24, in a tight end premium league nonetheless, is criminal. As long as he's healthy, he is a stone-cold lock to outplay his ADP.
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