RADIO
We're this close to the regular season, and while there is a ton of hype about the incoming rookies (check out all of our NBA Draft analysis here) we still need to reflect on the 2020-2021 season and what happened just a few months back in time. We had another short NBA offseason this year and it's time to do some evaluation on another unique season as we prepare for the 2022 campaign.
We have nearly a full season of data for most players to crunch now. It's time to reflect on the 2020-21 season to see who were our "risers" and "fallers" in the rankings. A lot of young players are naturally going to be on the rise, while some older hoopers will definitely be part of the season fallers.
In this article, I will feature some of the players labeled as Guards (PG/SG) who took the biggest jumps in their output so you can properly assess their value entering the 2022 draft season as it heats up with tipoff-week approaching.
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Fantasy Basketball Risers - Guards
RJ Barrett, SG/SF - New York Knicks
2020 - 125th
2021 - 42th
Barrett must have generated some of the most varying opinions during the past couple of years, either for the good or the bad. If we're honest, Barrett was a net-negative player as a rookie just a year ago even though he got to play 56 games and went through some (seemingly necessary) growing pains. After that negative-0.5 WS season, though, Barrett came back with a passion and put up an impressive 4.1 Win Shares as a sophomore averaging 0.078 WS/48, a top-20 mark among second-year men in the past 20 seasons (min. 2500 minutes played).
The best of Barrett's second year as a pro was watching him doing it on all fronts. RJ was able to put up great numbers all across the board in 2021. Pro-rated to a 100-possession basis, Barrett dropped a 25-8-4-1 line. Only 18 guys were able to reach those heights--Barrett included--in a group that included the likes of Luka, Zion, Giannis, and Jokic just to name a few. More impressively, those numbers have been put up by only seven players aged 20 or younger in the history of the NBA-- Barrett, Luka, Zion, LaMelo, LeBron, Webber, and T-Mac.
Barrett should be far from his peak and is just starting his pro career. The near-top-40 finish in 2021 is definitely going to make Barrett's ADP sky-rocket toward the first few rounds of all fantasy drafts. I'd get some fantasy GMs being concerned with this past season being just a fluke for Barrett, but 1) we don't know a lot about Barrett yet to assume that and 2) the Knicks made the postseason for the first time and look poised to play at that level for the time being with reinforcements on the way.
Dejounte Murray, PG/SG - San Antonio Spurs
2020 - 75th
2021 - 28th
The Spurs are definitely not a playoff team anymore after missing the postseason for the second time in a row and finishing with eerily similar records in 2020 (33-39) and 2021 (33-39). If they have at least got to win 45% of their games in the past two campaigns, though, that's because of a certain veteran (DeMar DeRozan) and a much younger and promising player going forward: Dejounte Murray.
Murray has steadily improved his game on a yearly basis since entering the NBA in 2017. He's improved at everything in each of his four years as a pro. Seriously. From 3 to 8, 11, and 15 PPG. From 1 to 5, 6, and 7 RPG. From 1 to 3, 4, and 5 APG. On and on it goes. Playing 67 games (the most he's reached career-wise) in 2021, Murray had his best season and finished with an average 24-10-8-2 line per 100 possessions--or if you're from the old school, a 15-7-5-1 per game line.
Looking at both rebound and assist rates from the past campaign, Murray, LaMelo Ball, and Russell Westbrook were the only three players measured at 6-6 or smaller putting up an 11%+ TRB% and 25%+ AST%. Not a lot of guard-eligible players can provide such numbers and production in all cats, and to that Murray added 1.5 SPG. One can arguably project all of Russ, Luka, Simmons, LaMelo, and Barrett (similar numbers in 2021) to have higher ADPs come draft day, so take advantage and score yourself a bargain by getting some Dejounte shares.
T.J. McConnell, PG/SG - Indiana Pacers
2020 - 156th-best overall
2021 - 68th
I have kept the series down to starters, but I just couldn't pass on mentioning T.J. McConnell here. I know, he only started 3 of 69 games last season and 10 in the past four years, but he's so good at what he does. You won't be drafting McConnell with a top-round pick because that'd make no sense in the fantasy realm, but be sure you snatch this guy further down your draft and later reap the rewards.
McConnell's per-game line is nothing otherworldly: 8-3-6-2. That being said, those numbers put together are incredibly hard to find anywhere else in the league--among both starters and second-unit players. These are all men who got to put up that baseline in 2021: Jimmy Butler and T.J. McConnell. That's it, that's your two-man group right there. Not bad this T.J. Mac, am I right?
The offense is fantastic (117 ORtg) and McConnell just made the most of his opportunities while being an absolute hustler. McConnell shot 55.9% from the floor while dropping 31.3% of his long-rangers. He was absolutely insane at stealing rocks (3.4 steals per 100 possession), deflected more passes than virtually everyone, and his 12.0 dimes per 100Poss ranked 6th in the league (min. 1,200 minutes played). Bargain of a player, T.J.
Stephen Curry, PG/SG - Golden State Warriors
2020 - 409th
2021 - 8th
Including Curry in this series wasn't an easy decision. At the end of the day, we all know what Curry is capable of, and we know the reasons that blocked him from even being a top-400 player two years ago. But with Curry missing ample time in 2020 and Klay also out for the 2021 season, fantasy GMs were drafting Steph with an ADP below those of Harden, Luka, Anthony Davis, Giannis, and even Karl-Anthony Towns (!). Of course, only Luka and Giannis beat Curry in fantasy leagues last year with the rest not getting even close to Steph.
What I mean with Curry's inclusion in this risers article is that by no means should you pass on this man, now or ever. Curry defied all odds, came back roaring to the game, entered the MVP conversation to some extent, and improved in all statistical departments (on a per-game average) except assists (-0.8 APG) and blocks (-0.3 RPG). Curry scored 11.2 PPG above his 2020 mark, hit 2.9 treys more than two years ago, and grabbed more boards while stealing more rocks too. All of that with a larger usage rate as the Warriors lacked talent all around.
All in all, Curry posted a 32-5-6-1 per-game line in 2021 that was even more ridiculous when pro-rated to a 100-possession basis: 44-7-8-1 while shooting 48.2% from the floor, 42.1% from three attempting 17.5 (!) treys, and scoring 91.6% of his freebies. 32 years old? Sure. Career season even with a putrid set of teammates sharing the floor with him? Also true. Never underestimate the Chef--there is no overdrafting him.
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