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We've waited for full-season fantasy to return for a little over nine months. Too long a time if you ask me. But the wait is over!
The new NBA season has started and with it our beloved NBA fantasy! New season, new situation, new rules. There are no fans allowed, and even though most of the teams played in the Bubble during the summer, not everyone has adapted to the new circumstances easily. On the other hand, some players are flourishing so far this season.
As we learned (sometimes the hard way), most of this is form related and will go back to normal sooner rather than later. This is why fantasy GMs would be wise to target the slow starters in trades, or capitalize on the inflated value of the early risers if you have them on your team. Here are our Sell High and Buy Low candidates for Week 2 of the NBA season, right here at RotoBaller.
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Are You for Real, Michael Porter Jr.?
Michael Porter Jr. is one of the most talented young players in the NBA, no doubt. He was the 14th pick in 2018, even with a serious injury - so that speaks volumes about how much Denver believed in him from the start. Now, it's two years later and Porter is starting to pay dividends to the Nuggets.
Last season (his first in the NBA) he didn't play too much, averaging just 16 minutes a game. Slowly but surely, his minutes increased, and by the time playoffs came around, he was averaging 24 per outing. This translated quite well into the new season as well and M(P)J is scoring 19.5 points with 2.8 threes on 56.6% from the field and 87.5% from the charity stripe along with 6.8 boards, 1.8 dimes, 1.0 steals, 1.5 blocks, and 0.5 turnovers in over 29 minutes a night. Top 10 value right there!
Furthermore, Nikola Jokic said recently that Porter needs to have the ball even more. It's obvious that Denver trusts him and that they have envisioned a large and important role for him in the future. This is why you should be able to find a trade partner to take Porter on if you wish to do so.
Ok, he is a good player and still developing, he will probably get even better. So why try and sell him?
I've got several reasons behind my thinking so let's tackle them one by one.
Unsustainable production - These stats that Porter is producing on a nightly basis over the first four games is simply not something we saw him do before. We don't have any reference from college either, as he only played three games for Missouri. Therefore it is quite unlikely that he can keep it up at this level.
Top 50? Quite probably. Top 30? Not sure, but it could happen. Top 10? I seriously doubt it.
Jamal Murray - Porter was good in all four games thus far, but his best game came in the second loss to Sacramento with 30 points (12-of-18 from the field, 2-of-2 from the line), four three-pointers, 10 rebounds, two blocks and an assist with no turnovers, but no steals either in 40 minutes of action. Porter hasn't played more than 30 minutes in the previous three games, so how come he got 40 minutes (no overtime) in this game?
You guessed it - Jamal Murray was out nursing a right elbow contusion. Don't get me wrong, Porter will be involved, and probably play over 30 minutes a game throughout the season. But not 40. Not with Murray healthy. And Jamal should be back pretty soon.
Injury concerns - He had surgery on his back in 2018, which caused him to miss the entire first season after he was drafted. He missed 18 games last season as well. With this history, he is not only more likely to get hurt, he is also more likely to get some load management and a rest day here and there. Not something you're looking for in a top player of your fantasy basketball team, is it?
So, who to target in a trade?
I think it's a bit unrealistic to expect to get a top 20 player back in a deal for Murray, but if you find a fantasy GM who is this high on him, I would swap him for Bradley Beal, Devin Booker or Deandre Ayton in a heartbeat.
Someone a little lower in the pecking order might be more easily obtainable. Depending on your team fit, Ben Simmons, Donovan Mitchell, De'Aaron Fox, Brandon Ingram to name a few are all players I would personally rather have on my team than Porter.
Baller Move: Sell high
Time to Panic on Lonzo Ball?
Lonzo is a very specific player with quite a rare set of skills. He is a great passer (7.0 assists last season) and defender (1.4 steals per game), gets a block every other game which is pretty cool to have from a PG/SG spot, and is a pretty decent rebounder (6.1 rebounds a game in 2019/20). Furthermore, he hit 2.3 threes per outing over the course of the previous season.
However, despite him having the three-point shot in his arsenal, he is quite poor from the free-throw line which is pretty rare. He will also hurt you in FG% (just 40.3% last year), and in the TO department (3.1 last season), and will not do much to help in points (11.8 per game).
So this peculiar combination of strengths and weaknesses has to be an acquired taste for fantasy managers, as he could be more of a liability than an asset on certain teams and builds. But for those who can adapt and overcome his shortcomings, Lonzo is a pretty exciting player to have on your hands.
Now, Lonzo is playing quite poorly to start the season with averages of 11.3 PTS with 2.0 3PM on 37.2 FG% and 62.5 FT%, 3.8 REB, 3.5 AST, 2.0 STL, 0.8 BLK and 3.3 TO in 30 minutes a game. This has him ranked at #150 on Yahoo at the moment. Not very good.
But Lonzo is very talented and has shown us before he can overcome obstacles in his way and become stronger for it. He was ranked at #63 before the season, and I think he can get back to this value in the next few weeks, and retain it for the rest of the season. If he can increase his FG% above 44.0% perhaps he can even crack open the top 50.
If you have Lonzo on your team, there's probably a reason for that (he fits your team, you believe in him or you got him cheap if he slid in your draft). Whatever the reason is, the smart thing to do here is wait for him to get his groove back. If you were to sell him now, it will probably be at a discount.
If you don't have him, but would like to, an offer of someone in the 70-90 range should be the most you pay for him. Andrew Wiggins, Aaron Gordon, Mike Conley and OG Anunoby are all players I would consider moving for Lonzo -- of course, that's if my team build is set up in the right way.
Baller Move: Hold or buy low
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