Breakout Pitchers For Fantasy Baseball Drafts: Joey Pollizze's Picks

March 15, 2026

Joey Pollizze's 2026 fantasy baseball pitcher breakouts to target in drafts. His favorite undervalued starting pitchers and fantasy baseball sleepers to break out.

The best league-winning picks always come in the mid to late rounds of fantasy baseball drafts. If you are able to hit on a player in the 14th or 15th round of drafts, that will go a long way in rounding out your roster. Those league-winning picks are often players who are set to have a breakout campaign.

In this article, we will identify six breakout pitchers for 2026 fantasy baseball drafts. Five of these pitchers are going outside the top 125 picks, while the top name is going just inside the top 100 in NFBC formats since February 1 and has the potential to break out this season. These six pitchers are set to have career years on the mound this upcoming year.

So, let's dive into the six breakout pitchers for 2026 fantasy drafts.

Eury Perez, Miami Marlins

ADP - 95

There is a real chance that Miami Marlins pitcher Eury Perez takes his game to the next level this year. Last season was sort of a weird campaign for Perez because he was making his way back from Tommy John surgery. The right-hander missed the entire 2024 season and the first two months of the 2025 season due to his Tommy John recovery.

As expected, Perez had plenty of ups and downs in his first season back from that elbow injury. He had a 4.66 ERA and 72 strikeouts in his first 18 starts, and it was clear that it took him some time to get back into a groove on the mound. Once he did, though, the Marlins pitcher took off. In his last four starts, Perez had a 2.70 ERA, a 1.09 FIP, and a 42.3% strikeout rate.

Eury Pérez ⛽️⛽️ pic.twitter.com/N4WPBZv2hX

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) July 13, 2025

That end-of-season stretch should give fantasy managers confidence that a breakout campaign could be on the horizon. Despite posting a 4.25 ERA across 20 starts, his metrics told a completely different story. His expected ERA (3.23) was 102 points lower than his actual ERA, and his expected batting average against (.203), whiff rate (28.4%), and strikeout rate (27.3%) all ranked in the 70th percentile or better.

Additionally, Perez had one of the best fastballs in all of baseball last year. He ranked in the 85th percentile in Fastball Run Value and averaged 97.9 mph on his four-seam fastball in 2025. That was all while working his way back from Tommy John surgery. That elite fastball will be a helping hand in Perez breaking out this season.

Cam Schlittler, New York Yankees

ADP - 144

It's hard not to love New York Yankees pitcher Cam Schlittler in all fantasy formats. The 25-year-old was called up by the Yankees in early July last year and immediately made a name for himself in the big leagues. He finished with a 2.96 ERA and 84 strikeouts across 14 starts in his rookie campaign. With one season now under his belt, Schlittler has the potential to post elite numbers in 2026.

Schlittler had a few rocky starts to begin his major league career, but once he got comfortable, he was a borderline fantasy star. He had a 2.23 ERA and a 31.1% strikeout rate in his late nine regular season starts. Then, he delivered one of the best rookie starts in postseason history by throwing eight shutout innings with 12 strikeouts against the Boston Red Sox in the American League Wild Card Series.

Schlitt happened. #RepBX | @Cam32Schlittler pic.twitter.com/TMoyRwp0FV

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) October 3, 2025

There's no denying that the talent is there for Schlittler. He ranked in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate (27.6%), 95th percentile in average fastball velocity (98 mph), and 89th percentile in Fastball Run Value (11). His fastball is going to be a large reason why he fully breaks out this year, considering that pitch held opposing hitters to a .173 batting average and a 27.9% whiff rate last season.

As a result, Schlittler is a sneaky pick at his 144 ADP in NFBC drafts. He showed his potential throughout his rookie season and now could take his game even further this year. The Yankees pitcher has breakout written all over him in fantasy baseball drafts.

MacKenzie Gore, Texas Rangers

ADP - 179

Starting pitcher MacKenzie Gore hasn't been able to put together a full season in his major league career. Gore usually starts the year off strong before struggling in the second half. That was definitely present last year, as his first-half numbers were completely different from his second-half numbers. Gore had a 3.02 ERA and 138 strikeouts in his first 19 starts and a 6.75 ERA across his final 11 starts.

However, Gore has the makings of a breakout pitcher this upcoming season. For starters, he goes from a Washington Nationals team that ranked 27th in defensive runs saved last year (-44) to a Texas Rangers team that ranked first in defensive runs saved (89). The upgraded defense behind Gore could actually help his overall numbers.

On top of that, Gore has always had the stuff to be a top pitcher in the game. Both his whiff rate (29.7%) and strikeout rate (27.2%) ranked in the 80th percentile last season, and the southpaw has some of the best swing-and-miss stuff. His slider, changeup, and curveball all had at least a 35% whiff rate in 2025. With a 79th percentile Breaking Run Value, it's impossible to ignore the 27-year-old's potential.

The change of scenery could finally help the left-hander put together a complete campaign from start to finish. Fantasy managers have seen Gore at his best before, and there's a strong chance that version of him shows up more in 2026. He's pitching in a more pitcher-friendly ballpark while having an elite defense behind him. That's enough to select him at his 179 ADP in NFBC leagues.

Braxton Ashcraft, Pittsburgh Pirates

ADP - 275

Pittsburgh Pirates pitcher Braxton Ashcraft will start the season in the team's rotation. This comes on the heels of a very impressive rookie campaign for the 26-year-old. Ashcraft spent time as both a starter and a reliever in his first major league season, finishing the year with a 2.71 ERA and 71 strikeouts across 26 appearances (eight starts).

While Ashcraft was an effective reliever out of Pittsburgh's bullpen, he was far better as a starter. He had a 2.16 ERA and a 25.9% strikeout rate in his eight starts for the Pirates last year. He'll now look to build on those numbers in his first full season, and the right-hander has the tools to emerge as a breakout candidate in 2026.

In his rookie season, Ashcraft ranked in the upper half of the league in expected ERA (3.43), average fastball velocity (96.8 mph), average exit velocity (88 mph), chase rate (29.4%), strikeout rate (24.3%), and barrel rate (4.6%). Those metrics were backed by his nasty slider, which should continue to carry him on the mound. His slider had a 32.4% whiff rate last year, and opposing hitters had an expected .214 batting average against that pitch.

Braxton Ashcraft's 3Ks in the 1st. pic.twitter.com/ebzicT00WG

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 15, 2025

With Ashcraft showing some nice things in his rookie season, the sky is the limit for the Pirates pitcher in Year 2. He ranked in the 73rd percentile in Pitching Run Value and 87th percentile in Breaking Run Value in 2025 and has looked solid on the mound so far this spring. At his 275 ADP in NFBC leagues, he's a massive steal.

Ryan Weathers, New York Yankees

ADP - 262

The main reason pitcher Ryan Weathers has not broken out yet is injury-related. The left-hander has had a hard time staying healthy in his career. He has thrown under 100 innings in the major leagues in five straight years and only threw 38 1/3 innings with the Marlins last year. Weathers missed time due to a left flexor strain, a left lat strain, and a head injury in 2025.

If the southpaw can just stay healthy, he could be one of the biggest breakout pitchers this year. The New York Yankees obviously see that potential in him after they traded four prospects to acquire Weathers in a trade this offseason. In his eight starts last season, he posted a 3.99 ERA and 37 strikeouts across 38 1/3 innings pitched.

It's tough to really evaluate Weathers' 2025 season because he only made five starts from May 14 to June 7 before missing three months due to an injury. So, fantasy managers should be looking at his 2024 numbers as well. That season, the former first-round pick finished with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 80 strikeouts across 16 starts. Those are pretty solid numbers, considering Weathers had multiple 10-strikeout games.

The big question mark surrounding the Yankees pitcher is his health, but at his 262 ADP in NFBC leagues, he's absolutely worth the risk. He had a 28.8% whiff rate in his eight starts last year and a nasty changeup with a 40.6% whiff rate in 2025. Given that New York has done a good job developing pitchers in the past, Weathers could be the next big star.

Edward Cabrera, Chicago Cubs

ADP - 192

New Chicago Cubs pitcher Edward Cabrera might have the biggest fantasy ceiling of any pitcher on this list. Cabrera is coming off a solid all-around campaign in which he finished with a 3.53 ERA and 150 strikeouts across 137 2/3 innings pitched. Now, he lands in an exceptional situation after being traded from the Marlins to the Cubs this offseason.

Cabrera will not only be pitching in front of one of the best defenses in the majors, but Wrigley Field has become more of a pitcher-friendly ballpark. Since 2023, the Cubs' home ballpark ranks toward the bottom of the league in park factor and extra-base hits. The wind in the Windy City has become a problem for a lot of hitters over the past three years.

Those two factors, mixed with Cabrera's arm talent, make him a strong breakout candidate. Both his Breaking Run Value and Offspeed Run Value ranked 88th percentile or better last season, and the right-hander also posted elite whiff rate (29.4%), chase rate (30.3%), and strikeout rate (25.8%) numbers in 2025. With a 94 mph changeup, Cabrera has the skills to emerge as an ace in Chicago's rotation.

So, fantasy managers should be taking a chance on him at his 192 ADP in NFBC formats. There is just too much that favors Cabrera entering his sixth major league season.

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