18): Daily Fantasy Baseball Advice

by Kevin Luchansky 10/17/18 8:08 AM Follow Kevin

Well, last night was pretty exciting in the baseball universe, huh? Despite a lopsided final score, the Red Sox and Astros dueled prety evenly throughout game three, and we had a benches clearing incident in Los Angeles as the Dodgers beat the Brewers in extra innings to even the NLCS at two games a piece. Luckily for us, both championship series march on today, so we have another two game slate to work with. Tonight's slate begins at 5:05 Eastern time.

But first, Vegas! In the ALCS, the Astros are the game four favorites on the moneyline with a -142 line (down from the -150 opening), pitting the Red Sox as slight underdogs (+131). The home team is also the favorite in the NLCS, as the Dodgers are -170 on the moneyline, and the visiting Brewers at +156. As for implied totals, no real movement to speak of - the Brewers have an implied total of 3, the Red Sox at 3.9, Dodgers (4) and finally, the Astros at 4.7.

In this article, I will be providing you with my daily fantasy baseball lineup picks for FanDuel on 10/16/18. The lineup picks will range from some of the elite players to mid-priced options and value plays.vYou can also read more DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and other sports too. If you have any questions or comments, feel free to contact me up on Twitter @kpLuch.

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FanDuel DFS Pitcher

Clayton Kershaw - SP, vs MIL ($8,700)

I realize "playoff Kershaw" may not have your trust right now, but we can't let recency bias or a small sample size cloud our judgement here. Kershaw is the most talented pitcher on the slate, the price is fair, and he's pitching at home in the best pitching environment on the slate. In addition to that, he is facing the team with the highest strikeout split (22%) and lowest lineup wOBA (.314) of the four teams in action Wednesday night. Similar to last night's slate with Rich Hill, Kershaw represents the best run prevention and strikeout upside option.

Also Consider: Wade Miley - SP, at LAD ($6,000) - GPP only

FanDuel DFS Infielders

Steve Pearce - 1B, at HOU ($3,200)

I like the idea of riding the hot bat here. Pearce has been great at making hard contact throughout the playoffs, and it paid off in the form of a 452-foot bomb to left last night. He's a real nice value here (I'm surprised the price is this low) and brings with him strong lineup context. While he's a little stronger against southpaws, his 2018 splits against right-handed pitching are still strong - .353 wOBA and a .200 ISO.

Justin Turner - 3B, vs MIL ($3,800)

Turner against a soft-tossing lefty? I love this spot for him so much that I wish I could roster him in two spots. He was elite this season against lefties, represented in his splits with a .436 wOBA and a .242 ISO. He also had a 45% hard hit rate and a 24% line drive rate - well above the league averages - and he also has strong lineup context with good right-handed Dodger batters sandwiched around him.

Alex Bregman - 3B, vs BOS ($4,100)

I realize I've listed two third basemen in my core plays, but as they both have elite matchups (relative to the slate), I'd suggest sticking both in your lineups (made possible by the utility slot). Bregman was fantastic this year in righty-righty situations, posting a .391 wOBA and an average batted ball distance of 211 feet.

FanDuel DFS Outfielders

Andrew Benintendi - OF, at HOU ($3,800)

Truthfully, I like all of the Red Sox big-three outfielders tonight (J.D. will be the designated hitter, but for FanDuel purposes he still occupies the OF slot), but I think Benintendi is the best value that also offers a solid points floor. He'll have the platoon advantage tonight against Charlie Morton, who has been struggling a bit over the past month. His .375 wOBA split is nearly .100 points higher than his mark against lefties, and rostering a guy at this price point who sits sandwiched in between Mookie Betts and Martinez (or Pearce) gives him great lineup context and good opportunity.

J.D. Martinez - OF, at HOU ($4,200)

Both of these series feel like they've been pretty light on home run production, but that could change tonight with the starting pitching taking the bump tonight. Martinez has as good a chance of any at leaving the yard, and he showcased elite power in righty-righty matchups this season (.325 ISO and a 44% hard hit rate).