RADIO
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! It's great to be back talking NFL DFS with you! In what's been a weird season of NFL DFS, Week 12 was yet another example, as in-game injuries to popular plays Christian McCaffrey and Miles Sanders, and underwhelming performances from the likes of Jalen Hurts and Chris Godwin, shifted the DraftKings slate into a contrarian player's wet dream. That said, last week's Break The Slate nailed more than our fair share of plays, as Joe Mixon, Van Jefferson, and Rob Gronkowski were all highlighted here.
As we turn our attention to Week 13, it appears as though injuries will shape this slate. With players like Dalvin Cook, Deebo Samuel, D'Andre Swift out, and many more viable DFS options looking questionable, we can expect a huge chunk of ownership to be concentrated on their replacements. This opens up some unique and interesting paths for us to take in GPP formats.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 13. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
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DraftKings Quarterbacks - Week 13 DFS Picks
Matthew Stafford - JAX @ LAR ($7,300)
A slumping Matthew Stafford leads a slumping L.A. Rams squad into the mother of all "get right spots" this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars. After a start to the season that had him in the MVP conversation, Stafford and the Rams have now dropped three in a row, a fact that might result in the veteran going a bit overlooked on this slate.
Why do I love this as a "buy low" spot for Stafford? Because he has been superb against weak opponents, actually smashing in the matchups he's supposed to smash. Stafford has faced four teams this season that currently rank 25th or worse in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA (CHI, NYG, HOU, & DET). How's he done in those four games? Pretty, pretty, pretty, good...1,211 passing yards, 13 TDs, and 1 INT with an average of 27.74 DraftKings points. Where do the Jacksonville Jaguars rank in Pass Defense DVOA? 29th. Giddy up.
Kirk Cousins - MIN @ DET ($6,500)
With all eyes focused on the Minnesota backfield and Alexander Mattison (don't worry, we'll touch on him in just a minute), a really unique way to attack GPPs is a pivot to Kirk Cousins and this Vikings passing attack. We all know that Cousins has his issues, but the often-criticized signal-caller has put together some unquestionably strong DFS outings this season, breaking the 25-point barrier on DraftKings on five occasions. He'll get a chance to make it six in the near-perfect conditions of a domed environment against a lowly Detroit defense that stands dead last in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA and rarely generates any noticeable pass rush.
We know that Minnesota trusts Mattison and wants to be a run-first team, so this is undeniably a bet on Cousins having a hyper-efficient day - though he's proven that he does have that club in his bag. That said, I believe the leverage that can be gained if a "Kirk Cousins game" scenario does play out, is worth the risk in large-field GPP formats.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Felt it necessary to hop in with Saturday updates this week because there are so many injuries that can and will impact the Week 13 slate. Injury-wise at the QB position, we have Kyler Murray and Jalen Hurts both listed as questionable and both seem to be true game-day decisions. Both are obviously running QBs that we love to play in DFS, so their status is worth monitoring into Sunday. Bears' rookie Justin Fields will not start against the Cardinals. As for healthy QBs, Lamar Jackson tops the salary scale and we know what type of ceiling he possesses as the best dual-threat option on the slate. Tom Brady has disappointed in two of the last three weeks but gets a cupcake matchup against the Falcons and I expect a big outing for the GOAT. We have a pair of intriguing QBs squaring off against each other in Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow. Herbert specifically has demonstrated a massive ceiling, though we've also seen a few scary-low floor games this season, while the concern with Burrow comes with the Bengals' obvious preference to lean on the run. Both are in GPP consideration, but this matchup could go either way. I don't know that you need to go the value route at QB this week, but a couple of plays that stand out are Taylor Heinicke and Tua Tagovailoa.
DraftKings Running Backs - Week 13 DFS Picks
Joe Mixon - LAC @ CIN ($8,100)
Joe Mixon is making the rare back-to-back appearance in this article. I loved him as a sleeper last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers and he rewarded us by romping for 165 yards and two TDs on the ground in Week 12. Mixon has now totaled 25 or more DK points in five of Cincy's last six. As we head into Week 13, I imagine that Mixon will garner more DFS attention, but this is a unique opportunity to roster one of the hottest backs in the NFL against a Chargers squad that ranks dead last in the league in Rush Defense DVOA.
First-year Chargers HC Brandon Staley is a big believer in analytics and as a result, this L.A. defense almost invites teams to run the ball between the 20s. This philosophy has resulted in the Chargers prioritizing stopping the pass, but allowing a league-high 1,336 rushing yards to opposing RBs this season. This Cincinnati offense will be very content to take what the L.A. defense gives them on the ground with a red-hot Mixon. The Bengals have run the ball at a 48.29% clip over their last three, which has resulted in consistent, high-end production for Mixon.
Alexander Mattison - MIN @ DET ($7,600)
I don't feel the need to go too in-depth on Alexander Mattison. He's the best backup running back in the league and has consistently produced elite results in prior spot starts for Dalvin Cook. He's a terrific player in a tremendous matchup against the lowly Lions - a team that he dissected for 153 total yards and a TD in a Week 5 spot start for Cook. The trouble is...everyone knows just how great of a play Mattison is, which will result in high ownership (I will say that both DK & FanDuel did a nice job of raising his price, which will help to control ownership to a certain extent). It puts us in the classic DFS "great play that's very chalky" conundrum. My personal strategy? I would use Mattison in cash game formats and small-field tournaments while looking for ways to gain leverage in large-field GPPs, either with a calculated fade or by including him in a full Vikings stack.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Ok...the RB position is straight outta hand this week! Due to a combination of injuries and players being in elite matchups, there's a cornucopia of options on this slate. Jonathan Taylor wasn't in the main write-up, but he's the type of player that could be highlighted every week, especially in this SMASH spot against the lowly Texans. The only argument not to play Taylor is that there are so many other strong options available. Leonard Fournette is coming off his best outing of the year and draws a lifeless Atlanta defense. San Fran's Elijah Mitchell has received 27 carries in his last two starts for a Niners rushing attack that looks better every week. James Conner should go overlooked and is one of my favorite GPP options on the slate. Antonio Gibson will not go overlooked at all, but with J.D. McKissic on the shelf, he'll get all the work he can handle for the Football Team. The same can be said of Jamaal Williams, who will slide in for the injured D'Andre Swift, though there are obvious concerns with Detroit's offense as a whole. As much as it pains me, I might have some exposure to Miles Sanders - a player that killed me last week - with Jalen Hurts questionable, Jordan Howard out, and Boston Scott questionable. I worry about how good of a "real" football player Myles Gaskin is, but he's been very productive from a fantasy perspective and newly-signed Phillip Lindsay looks doubtful this week. An injury situation that we should monitor closely...Rams' back Darrell Henderson Jr. has missed a couple of practices this week and is listed as questionable. His backup, Sony Michel, sits at just $4.3k on DK and would become a lock-button play should Henderson miss. Unfortunately, the Rams don't play until 4:00, so leave yourself some late-swap flexibility if we don't have the news before 1:00.
DraftKings Wide Receivers - Week 13 DFS Picks
Brandon Aiyuk - SF @ SEA ($5,600)
With Deebo Samuel out for Week 13 with a groin strain, it's reasonable to toss Brandon Aiyuk in the same bucket as Minnesota's Alexander Mattison...a very capable player that will see a noticeable uptick in usage due to the absence of a star player. While Aiyuk won't directly inherit all of Samuel's substantial workload - a massive 28.8% share of the team's targets - we can expect him to be the clear alpha of this Niners receiving corps.
After opening the year in Kyle Shanahan's doghouse, Aiyuk has averaged 6.4 targets per game over San Fran's last five and has posted 10 or more DK points in four of five. Like the aforementioned Mattison, Aiyuk's ownership will reflect the great situation, but his expected usage and too-cheap DraftKings price tag put him squarely in consideration for cash games and small-field tournaments.
Van Jefferson - JAX @ LAR ($5,300)
I'm writing up Van Jefferson again this week to not only take a victory lap on my Week 12 call on him but to also remind you that he is still priced too cheap in Week 13. Coming in at just $5.3k, Jefferson is coming off a career-high nine targets against Green Bay last week. His final 3/93/1 line was a very nice price-considered return, but his underlying usage in this Robert Woods-less Rams offense indicates that even bigger days lie ahead. Jefferson has tallied 249 total Air Yards in L.A.'s last two with a juicy aDOT of 15.18. He's set to square off against a Jacksonville defense that is allowing a massive 9.12 yards per target to opposing receivers and stands 29th in the NFL in Pass Defense DVOA.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
With so many tantalizing plays at the RB position, it makes sense to at least attempt to find viable salary savers at WR. That's reflected in this week's writeup, as Aiyuk and Jefferson remain two of my favorite options on the slate. There are some other standouts with sub-$6k price tags at a jam-packed price point that includes Tee Higgins, Hunter Renfrow, Michael Pittman Jr., and Mike Williams. Perhaps my favorite of the players not mentioned is Chicago's Darnell Mooney, who I believe receives a big boost with the news that Andy Dalton will get the start for the Bears. Mooney has been targeted an eye-popping 24 times over Chicago's last two with Dalton at the helm. Things get pretty ugly pretty quickly as we move below $5k with only players like Rashod Bateman and Josh Reynolds really catching my eye. If you want to get contrarian in GPPs, paying up at WR is an intriguing line to take. Cooper Kupp is - obviously - always viable, as are high-ceiling players such as Justin Jefferson/Adam Thielen, Terry McLaurin, Ja'Marr Chase, and Hollywood Brown. We also should remember a couple of dynamic duos in Mike Evans/Chris Godwin and DK Metcalf/Tyler Lockett when building for GPPs.
DraftKings Tight Ends - Week 13 DFS Picks
Rob Gronkowski - TB @ ATL ($5,300)
The Atlanta Falcons defense is a unit that I'm always looking to target. That's especially true with a player that's rolling along as well as Rob Gronkowski is at the moment. Despite not reaching the endzone last week against Indy, it was perhaps the veteran's best game of the year, as he brought in seven of nine targets for 123 yards. He's now been targeted 17 times in Tampa Bay's last two and should have no trouble against an Atlanta squad that ranks 31st in the NFL in Total Defense DVOA and is allowing opposing TEs to catch intended targets at nearly a 70% clip.
Foster Moreau - WAS @ LV ($2,700)
If you are willing to swallow the chalk this week, a dirt-cheap TE is a sensible way to take the plunge. With Raiders stud Darren Waller on the shelf we can expect Foster Moreau to inherit a huge workload. In a Week 7 spot start for Waller, Moreau played every single offensive snap for Las Vegas and snagged all six of his targets for 60 yards and a score. He's about as simple a "plug and play" option as we're ever going to see and brings tremendous salary relief to roster construction at a position that I'm willing to punt. Moreso than any other players we've discussed for this specific slate, Moreau is borderline unplayable in large-field GPPs due to what will be extremely high ownership. However, he should be locked into cash lineups.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
As I mentioned in the original writeup, I don't know that you can play a 50% (?) owned Foster Moreau in large-field tournaments. The problem is a lack of viable pivots at the always-tough TE position. Deebo Samuel's absence makes the always-dangerous George Kittle stick out, while an explosive Mark Andrews will carry basically no ownership. I'm sick of trying with Kyle Pitts, but he makes sense as a GPP play. If you're looking for more of a direct pivot from Moreau, Jacksonville's James O'Shaughnessy is interesting. The TE position has been one of the lone bright spots for this Jags offense and O'Shaughnessy deserves consideration with Dan Arnold now on IR.
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