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Mike's college football Week 14 expert picks and predictions. Get the best against the spread picks, betting trends, and score projections for the top matchups.
I've had a couple of good weeks in a row, so I think I'm ready to attack Rivalry Week. All but two teams (Connecticut and Akron) are in action this week, giving us 67 games total. 50 of them take place on Saturday.
Welcome to my world! I love days like this! There are no FBS vs. FCS games. Just rivalries all across the board and some glorious trophies at stake.
If you'd like me to advise on over/under or prop bets, you can reach out on X or in the RotoBaller Discord, and I'll be happy to answer. Let's get to the picks we really care about and make some money!
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CFB Betting Picks for Week 14 - (11/29/25)
I will pick every college football game every week. Not a top five, not a top 10, all of them! Big deal, right? Lots of people make picks. Well, I do them all against the spread. I take the odds of each game and average them out at all the Vegas casinos and round to the nearest half. There will be no ties here. Ties are for the other (European) football.
I think you should know who you're listening to. I've been doing this since 2014, and I have most of my record available for viewing here. This can help you determine which teams I usually pick correctly or incorrectly, as the case may be.
The sheet is still under construction, as I am having issues locating articles from 2019 and 2020. If any of you have knowledge of computers and can help locate defunct webpages, I would love to hear from you!
(1) Ohio State (-9.5) at (15) Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line is already above 10 in some places, so if you're betting the Buckeyes, jump on now. If you're betting on Michigan, find the 10.5 with favorable odds. Don't pay the juice on FanDuel.
This line is already up four points and getting higher because Jeremiah Smith is playing, and Carnell Tate is likely to play. I don't have a ton of confidence in this. Michigan has won four straight in the series and has only been favored once.
Ohio State has heard nothing for the past year but Michigan fans saying they're real national champions because they went undefeated and beat Ohio State. The Buckeyes have a shot at that this season. It starts here.
Pick: Ohio State -9.5
(5) Texas Tech (-23.5) at West Virginia
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
📊🏈College Football's Most Efficient Teams
Opponent-Adjusted EPA/Play through Week 13🟢⬆️➡️: Good Offense, Good Defense
🔵⬆️⬅️: Good Offense, Defense Needs Work
🟡⬇️➡️: Good Defense, Offense Needs Work
🔴⬇️⬅️: We're Trying Our Best! pic.twitter.com/McChhJSqZi— parker fleming (@statsowar) November 24, 2025
Texas Tech leads the nation in defensive efficiency, and the offense is finally back at full strength.
Pick: Texas Tech -23.5
(12) Miami (FL) (-6.5) at (22) Pittsburgh
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Make no mistake about it. Pitt blasting Georgia Tech was a long time coming. They are going to struggle against this Miami defense. Can the Miami offense do enough? For under a touchdown, probably.
Miami- Pittsburgh weather report.
Its going to be partly cloudy at noon. Its the only day Pittsburgh will see any real sunshine. Winds out of the warmer southeastern direction, 5 to 12 MPH. The field runs north and south. 31 degrees, football weather.
— CHARLIE LAKES (@charlie_la93091) November 26, 2025
Miami has played two games outside of the state of Florida this year. It's going to be frigid, which undoubtedly favors Pitt. Miami has something to prove, but can they?
Pick: Pittsburgh +6.5
Kentucky at Louisville (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This line has plummeted, but not far enough. Chris Bell, Keyjuan Brown, Isaac Brown, and Duke Watson are out for Louisville. They will be on the fifth-string running back, and QB Miller Moss could be limited. This is so absurd, it's comical.
Pick: Kentucky +2.5
Louisville at SMU (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
SMU is likely favored since Isaac Brown is still expected to be out. Louisville hasn't been losing games because of the absence of Brown. They have been losing games due to a porous pass defense and poor kicking. SMU is not a team that you want to have a porous pass defense against.
Pick: SMU -2.5
Clemson at South Carolina (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Boy, that line says a lot, doesn't it? What it says is true.
Pick: South Carolina -2.5
Houston at Baylor (-2.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I have no faith in Houston, and Baylor has struggled at home. Every part of me says to leave this one alone. Bet the over on 58.5 and be done with it.
Pick: Baylor -2.5
Colorado at Kansas State (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Oh man, is Colorado really that bad? This feels like an overreaction to K-State almost winning in Salt Lake City last week.
Pick: Colorado +17.5
Iowa State (-13.5) at Oklahoma State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Oklahoma State reportedly has a signed deal in place for North Texas HC Eric Morris to become to Cowboys next Head Coach, per @Brett_McMurphy
One of the top up and coming coaches off the market. pic.twitter.com/ios1mqWtO0
— SleeperCFB (@SleeperCFB) November 25, 2025
Just one more game, Cowboys fans. Then all of your suffering is over...especially if Caleb Hawkins and Drew Mestemaker follow their coach.
Pick: Iowa State -13.5
East Carolina (-6.5) at Florida Atlantic
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Under a touchdown? Sure, I'm game.
Pick: East Carolina -6.5
Toledo (-11.5) at Central Michigan
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
With a healthy Chip Trayanum, many things are possible. This is one of them.
Pick: Toledo -11.5
Ball State at Miami (OH) (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The only team that the Redhawks beat by this line was Lindenwood. They didn't even beat Buffalo by this.
Pick: Ball State +17.5
Central Florida at (11) BYU (-17.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
I don't like the hook, but it's not enough to chase me off of BYU. They need the style points.
Pick: BYU -17.5
UTEP at Delaware (-4.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This seems more than fair. I'm good with the Hens for anything under a touchdown.
Pick: Delaware -4.5
Florida International (-10.5) at Sam Houston
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
That hook is going to screw me, isn't it?
Pick: Florida International -10.5
Georgia Southern at Marshall (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Why is this line up four points? That's a lot, especially against a team like Georgia Southern.
Pick: Georgia Southern +10.5
Western Kentucky (-2.5) at Jacksonville State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This is the biggest game in Jacksonville State's young history. Beating the Hilltoppers won't be easy, even at home.
Pick: Western Kentucky -2.5
Louisiana Tech at Missouri State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Who would have thought that the Bears would be favored against La Tech in the last home game of their inaugural FBS season? Oh, to be in Springfield this weekend!
Pick: Missouri State -1.5
Georgia State at Old Dominion (-26.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Zoinks! Count me out!
Pick: Old Dominion -26.5
Arkansas State at Appalachian State (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I don't trust this one at all. Arkansas State keeps burning me, and App State just beat Marshall after getting throttled by James Madison.
Pick: Arkansas State +1.5
Boston College (-2.5) at Syracuse
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
An ACC Championship berth and a spot in the College Football Playoff could be decided by the result of 1-10 Boston College vs. 3-8 Syracuse this week.
The ACC Championship could be really simple: SMU is in with a win, Virginia is in with a win. But either team loses, the result… pic.twitter.com/abNbewZP8U
— CFB Kings (@CFBKings) November 26, 2025
This is how utterly stupid these super-mega-big-ass conferences are. Fans of good teams have to hate-watch the two worst teams in the league. It should be just as bad as it sounds.
How bad do you have to be to be a home dog to a 1-10 team? I understand this line. I really do. There's no way in hell that I'm touching this.
Pick: Syracuse +2.5
Middle Tennessee State at New Mexico State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Is Middle Tennessee State worse than Sam Houston? More than likely.
Pick: New Mexico State -3.5
Louisiana-Monroe at Louisiana (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
In a rivalry game? Is Louisiana necessarily that much better? I don't know about this one.
Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +8.5
South Alabama at Texas State (-9.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Bobcats are really good at home, but USA is playing better lately.
Pick: Texas State -9.5
UAB at Tulsa (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
No one wants to mess with Tulsa right now. Baylor Hayes isn't going to Oklahoma State now, but he may still leave Tulsa after this.
Pick: Tulsa -8.5
(6) Oregon (-6.5) at Washington
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is way down from the open at -11.5. It may have dropped too far.
Pick: Oregon -6.5
LSU at (8) Oklahoma (-10.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like that high of a line against a defense like LSU. Is it possible? Sure. I'm not going to be the one to lose money betting against my team. You understand, right?
Pick: Oklahoma -10.5
(14) Vanderbilt at (19) Tennessee (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
This line opened with Vandy favored, but this feels right to me. Tennessee isn't going to lose three games at home this year, right?
Josh Heupel has faced Clark Lea’s Vanderbilt Commodores 4 times. The Vols have scored 45, 58, 48, & 36 points. They have yet to be held under 400 yards of total offense & have rushed for 200+ yards in 3 out of the 4 matchups.
Vanderbilts defense currently ranks 105th in STOP…
— Jordan Moore (@jordanmoore_21) November 25, 2025
Pick: Tennessee -1.5
Missouri (-2.5) at Arkansas
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
It's the Battle Line game. That may suggest some longstanding rivalry, but it's not. It was created when Missouri joined the SEC in 2014.
Pick: Missouri -2.5
Wisconsin (-1.5) at Minnesota
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
WATCH: @GopherFootball celebrates with a race to Paul Bunyan's Axe after the #Gophers beat Wisconsin 24-7 to finish the season 7-5.
Video courtsey of @acgoodyear.
Next up, a bowl game TBD. @Fox9Sports pic.twitter.com/YEAPNBVILw
— FOX 9 (@FOX9) November 30, 2024
Everyone assumes that Luke Fickell is still gone as soon as Wisconsin can afford it. If Wisconsin ends the season by beating a ranked team and winning Paul Bunyan's Axe, he won't even be on the hot seat anymore. Trust me on this.
Pick: Wisconsin -1.5
Penn State (-13.5) at Rutgers
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
Penn State is going bowling, probably on the legs of Penn State's all-time leading rusher, Kaytron Allen.
Pick: Penn State -13.5
Wake Forest at Duke (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Wake Forest slow mesh is built to frustrate teams like Duke.
Pick: Wake Forest +1.5
Cincinnati at TCU (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Come on now, I know that Cincinnati is struggling, but TCU is worse.
Pick: Cincinnati +3.5
Kennesaw State (-2.5) at Liberty
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
The Owls are a team of destiny.
Pick: Kennesaw State -2.5
Troy at Southern Mississippi (-6.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Talk to me, Goose (Crowder)!
Pick: Troy +6.5
Army at UTSA (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
UTSA doesn't lose conference games at home. In fact, they usually aren't even games!
Pick: UTSA -7.5
James Madison (-21.5) at Coastal Carolina
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
JMU isn't built to cover lines like this, but neither was South Carolina.
Pick: James Madison -21.5
Florida State at Florida (-1.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
The Gators are a mess, but they have a chance to keep Florida State out of a bowl. That's a lot of motivation.
Pick: Florida State +1.5
Oregon State at Washington State (-13.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
Really? I don't trust this at all. This is one of the very few times that I wish I could wager nothing on one of these.
Pick: Washington State -1.5
Virginia Tech at (18) Virginia (-8.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
If Virginia can't get up for this game, they don't deserve to play for the ACC Championship.
Pick: Virginia -8.5
Maryland at Michigan State (-3.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I feel like Maryland is close, but I also have no way to quantify that feeling.
Pick: Michigan State -3.5
Rice at South Florida (-28.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Can Rice slow down Byrum Brown? I'm not sure anyone can right now.
Pick: South Florida -28.5
(10) Alabama (-5.5) at Auburn
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 4
This is down under a touchdown, and it has everything to do with how poorly Ty Simpson looked last week in a nobody-cares game. It's an overreaction.
Pick: Alabama -5.5
UCLA at (17) USC (-21.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This line is WAY up and is now out of control. Not in a rivalry game. Not happening.
The Victory Bell is given to the winner of the rivalry game between USC and UCLA. This 295-pound trophy was stolen by USC students in 1941. In 1942, both schools agreed the winner of their football game would keep it for a year. 🔔 pic.twitter.com/5712WJAjlr
— USC Orientation (@WelcomeTrojans) April 11, 2025
Pick: UCLA +21.5
Charlotte at (24) Tulane (-29.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 1
I have a feeling that Tulane is going to pull starters earlier than normal with a berth in the AAC Championship secured.
Pick: Charlotte +29.5
Northwestern at Illinois (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Illinois just lost to Wisconsin. Trust nothing.
Pick: Northwestern +7.5
North Carolina at North Carolina State (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Vegas is after us again. There is no juice at all on the -7.5 line and a ton of juice on -7. I'm not sure it matters here. That's usually an automatic deterrent for me, but I've watched North Carolina enough this year to know it's not.
Pick: North Carolina State -7.5
(21) SMU (-13.5) at California
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
I don't like this line. SMU demolishing a Louisville M*A*S*H* unit wasn't that impressive...unless you didn't watch the game.
Pick: California +13.5
UNLV (-7.5) at Nevada
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 2
Nevada will look to recapture the Fremont Cannon for the first time since 2022 when UNLV heads to Reno. Details: https://t.co/njm0IZmgjw pic.twitter.com/wai5no6fpg
— KOLO8 (@KOLO8) November 25, 2025
I was all over UNLV early on, but Nevada's strong play of late worries me. So does that hook. It's time to dial this one back a bit.
Pick: UNLV -7.5
(9) Notre Dame (-31.5) at Stanford
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
Notre Dame's schedule was heavily frontloaded, and they didn't win either game. The worst part about it is that they will get away with it since they don't have to play a conference championship game, and they are going to beat another pathetic team by 50.
Pick: Notre Dame -31.5
Fresno State (-3.5) at San Jose State
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
What little bit of cohesion the Spartans had is gone now.
Pick: Fresno State -3.5
Wyoming at Hawaii (-7.5)
Betting Pick Confidence Factor: 3
This feels low, especially considering that Timmy Chang has the Rainbow Warriors pounding people on the islands again.
Pick: Hawaii -7.5
For the fourth straight week, I only have two max bets. I've gone 5-1 with those picks, so I'm being more selective. I'm not going to change because it's working. I have seven four-point bets. I also chickened out seven times. I tipped the scales with 27 two-point bets, but made up for it with 24 three-point bets. Good luck out there!
