RADIO
It was quite the fantasy football season in 2021 for wide receiver breakouts. Fantasy managers were treated to breakout seasons from players like Cooper Kupp, Deebo Samuel, Michael Pittman Jr., Jaylen Waddle, and Marquise Brown, among many others. It's a position that routinely provides fantasy managers with plenty of sleeper and breakout candidates. If you were lucky enough to draft any of those players last season, chances are you did quite well for yourself, as all of them solidly outplayed their preseason ADP. Kupp and Deebo were straight-up league winners.
The 2022 season will no doubt offer its own fair share of breakout receivers. The question fantasy managers will be trying to answer from now until draft season is who will those breakouts be? Any fantasy managers on Twitter will have heard the phrases "targets are earned" or "vacated targets aren't real." Okay, but what does that mean? Surely, "earning" targets is a little more difficult when your teammates are Deebo Samuel and George Kittle as Brandon Aiyuk can relate to than if your teammates are Josh Reynolds and Kalif Raymond, right? And if vacated targets aren't real, does that mean Kyler Murray is only going to have around 315 attempts in 2022? You see, the Cardinals attempted 591 attempts last season and as of March 16th, they have 275 vacated targets, but if those aren't real... well, you can see where the dilemma starts.
Breakouts can come in all shapes and sizes. A guy valued as a WR5 finishing as a WR3 is a breakout. A receiver ranked as a mid-tier WR2 finishing as a WR1 is a breakout. Here, we're identifying receivers who can significantly outplay their current 2022 valuation and provide fantasy managers with massive value based on their current ADP and offseason ranking. These are kinds of players, where if they hit, they can provide a massive boost to any fantasy manager's championship aspirations.
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Fantasy Football Wide Receiver Draft Targets
Jerry Jeudy, Denver Broncos
This one is easy, right? The short version is buh-bye Drew Lock and Teddy Bridgewater. Hello Russell Wilson and really, maybe it's as simple as that. But there's more to it than that. After a disappointing 2021 season, the general perception is the former Alabama receiver has been a disappointment since entering the league in 2020. Fantasy football managers have terrible short-term memories.
As a rookie, he had 113 targets – among rookies, only Justin Jefferson had more. He also finished with 852 yards, a number that doesn't look great at first glance considering how many targets he had, but if we look a little deeper, the picture becomes a bit more clear.
He was second in the NFL in unrealized air yards that season with 965 – think about that. Fantasy managers have Drew Lock to thank for that one. Only 62.8% of his targets were deemed catchable, according to PlayerProfiler, which ranked 106th among qualifying receivers.
For the "targets are earned" group, he had a very healthy 21.2% target share as a rookie. The upside, when looking at his 1,536 air yards in 2020, which ranked sixth among receivers, was impossible to ignore. All this kid needed was a halfway competent quarterback, something we all know Drew Lock is not and something we all know Russell Wilson is.
Unfortunately, that narrative took a bit of a hit following his 2021 season. The addition of Teddy Bridgewater was supposed to bring out the best in the second-year pro. He was believed to be accurate and dependable.
The reality, at least as it pertains to fantasy football, is Bridgewater is boring. In 2020, when he was with Carolina, he averaged 249 yards per game and that dropped to 218. His career 3.6% touchdown rate leaves an awful lot to be desired. For comparison, Wilson has a 6.2% touchdown rate, which is a substantial increase.
With a new head coach, Nathaniel Hackett, coming over after spending the last three seasons in Green Bay under Matt LaFleur, fantasy managers should expect a more fantasy-friendly offense in Denver this season. When you couple that with the addition of Russell Wilson under center, Denver's offense should be much more efficient and dynamic.
Jerry Jeudy led all wide receivers in average target separation this year with 2.44. #Broncos #BroncosCountry #FantasyFootball pic.twitter.com/Jnu8DY6nAO
— FantasyData (@FantasyDataNFL) January 28, 2022
Jeudy entered the league with the reputation as an excellent route runner and it showed last year, as evidenced above. No other receiver was charted as having created more separation per route. In a recent 2022 mock draft here at Rotoballer, Jeudy was drafted as the WR35. Using FantasyPros 2022 early rankings and selecting only those rankings associated with Yahoo!, FantasyPros, and RotoBaller, the former Alabama star came in as the WR22.
He disappointed a bit in 2021, but an early high ankle sprain that cost him Weeks 2–7 likely affected him all season long. Not only that, but another quarterback change is never ideal for a young, developing receiver.
He showed a good amount of potential as a rookie and was hampered by an injury his sophomore season. Now, entering his third season with Wilson under center and an offensive-minded head coach, there's no reason Jeudy can't reach new heights.
Rashod Bateman, Baltimore Ravens
Bateman entered the 2021 NFL Draft after an excellent three-year stint at the University of Minnesota. That included 51 catches, 704 yards, and six touchdowns as a true freshman. It was his sophomore season that put him firmly on the NFL's radar.
He lit the Big Ten for 1,219 yards and 11 touchdowns with an insane 20.3 yards per reception average. His junior year was cut short by Covid-19, but that didn't stop him from continuing to impress NFL scouts. He racked up 472 yards and two touchdowns in just five games. That college performance led to him being selected in the first round by the Baltimore Ravens.
In years past, the Ravens have been one of the most run-heavy teams in the league, but that changed during the 2021 offseason. The coaching staff repeatedly said they wanted to pass more. Then, they drafted another first-round receiver to go with Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews, a sign they intended to pass more, and when the 2021 NFL season finally ended, the Ravens finished ninth in pass attempts.
Say what you will about the running back situation and how that may have affected their pass-run split, but there's absolutely no reason to believe the 2022 Ravens will go back to the pass-run splits we saw pre-2020. They may not pass as much as they did last season, but there will be enough volume to support Brown, Andrews, and Bateman just fine.
Bateman was slowed by a groin injury last season, which forced him to miss the first five games. From there on out, his playing time went in ebbs and flows (for unknown reasons). But when he got regular playing time, he commanded targets.
In seven of his 12 games, he recorded six or more targets. There's no reason to expect that he is not firmly entrenched as the starter opposite Brown in year two, which means he should see a steady amount of targets.
Rashod Bateman had 6+ targets in every single game where he topped 50% of the snaps & Lamar was at QB.
— David J. Gautieri (@GuruFantasyWrld) February 25, 2022
In RotoBaller's recent mock draft, he was selected as the 45th receiver off the board and FantasyPros has him ranked as WR39 entering the 2022 season. For the "there won't be enough targets to go around in Baltimore" crowd, last season Bateman, Sammy Watkins, Devin Duvernay, and James Proche combined for 184 targets, 122 receptions, and 1,383 yards.
Watkins is gone and there won't be so many musical chairs in Baltimore with regards to which receivers are being used. It's going to be Brown, Bateman, and someone else.
Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if Bateman solidly outplays his current WR4 status this preseason. He has the potential to be a high-end WR3 and it's not out of the realm of possibilities where Bateman supplants Marquise Brown, even if it should be considered unlikely.
Christian Kirk, Jacksonville Jaguars
Forget about the money. It doesn't matter, not for fantasy anyways. Did the former Cardinal deserve that much dough? No, he most certainly did not, but it should be seen as a positive for Kirk and his 2022 fantasy prospects.
That kind of money, the kind they threw at him, it likely would've been enough to entice Allen Robinson II if they wanted to bring him back, but they didn't. They made Kirk their target and that should be appealing.
With the addition of Zay Jones and Marvin Jones Jr. still being on the roster, it looks as if Laviska Shenault Jr. is on the chopping block. That's not a bad thing as it likely means Kirk is going to get to hold down the slot receiver role in Jacksonville's offense. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised if the fifth-year receiver comes close to 100 receptions this season. No, I'm not joking.
During new head coach Doug Pederson's five years with the Eagles, they never finished lower than 13th in pass attempts. Three times they were in the top-10. There is going to be volume to be had in Jacksonville and the target competition is fairly non-existent. The Jones-duo will likely serve as the outside weaponry and downfield threats, which will enable Kirk to operate almost exclusively out of the slot.
Christian Kirk has averaged 1.68 yards per route run from the slot since 2018, tied for 11th with Keenan Allen WRs with 800+ snaps in the four-year span.
Kirk ranked T-7th with Kyle Pitts in YPRR from the slot last year (1.80).
— Austin Gayle (@PFF_AustinGayle) March 15, 2022
He had somewhat of a breakout campaign in 2021 when he finished with 77 catches and 982 yards, the closest he's come to 1,000 yards in his four-year career. Fantasy managers should be expecting him to cross that mark in 2022. While he may not have a double-digit touchdown upside in any kind of PPR-scoring league, Captain Kirk is going to be money.
He quietly had a very productive fourth season in the desert. For the longest time, he was forced to play on the outside while Larry Fitzgerald manned the slot. That changed in 2021 and so did his production and efficiency. He averaged 9.5 yards per target, which ranked 18th among qualifying receivers.
He also averaged two yards per route run, which ranked 28th. Kirk caught almost everything thrown his way and finished with a 74.8% catch rate, which was seventh among receivers. Are we catching my drift about Kirk going to be money in any PPR leagues because it's happening in 2022?
Christian Kirk is now the WR1 in Jacksonville.
I expect a career year and Top-24 fantasy finish.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 14, 2022
Even as it pertains to fantasy, he was extremely efficient. He averaged 2.02 points per target, which ranked 18th among receivers. He'll no longer be playing second-fiddle to anyone in Jacksonville. They paid him to be their No. 1 receiver and with the expected passing volume in Jacksonville, Kirk is ready to take off. Fantasy managers should be expecting a WR2 finish in any PPR league.
Rondale Moore, Arizona Cardinals
While I get the argument of vacated targets not being real because the team can change, offensive philosophies can change, rostered players can earn more or fewer targets, I get all of that. But that's taking the data point a bit too literally.
The point of vacated targets is to show a range of targets that could be available. It's not an exact science, but if the coaching staff stays the same, pass-run splits can be expected to stay fairly similar. No data point is meant to be an end-all, be-all sort of thing. They're all just a piece of the puzzle.
With that being said, the Cardinals have 275 vacated targets (48.2% of 2021's totals), 195 of which are receiver targets. They also have 19 targets inside the 10-yard line which have been vacated (48.7%) and 2,505 total air yards (57.8%).
No one actually believes those numbers on a literal basis, right? That's not the point of vacated target data, the point is to show available opportunities. The Cardinals aren't going to pass it 48.2% less in 2022 than they did in 2021, so we know a ton of work is available in the Arizona offense.
Enter second-round pick, Rondale Moore. His rookie season was not ideal for fantasy football purposes. His 1.4-yard average depth of target was scary bad. No other receiver who averaged at least two targets per game was lower than five yards. That number is simply not sustainable for any sort of fantasy relevance.
However, 2022 is not 2021. Christian Kirk has moved on to greener pastures as far as money is concerned and he ran the 13th-most snaps in the NFL last season with 406. There is no reason to think the former Boilermaker doesn't get the first crack at all of that fantasy goodness.
His size limitations always seemed to destine him towards a slot role in the NFL and with the Cardinals competing for a playoff spot and with the veteran Christian Kirk on the roster, it was premature of fantasy managers to expect big things from Moore in year one. And truthfully, it wasn't all bad for the rookie.
He averaged 7.9 yards after the catch, which ranked third among all receivers who had at least 50 targets last season. He showed time and time again he's an explosive athlete who can make things happen with the ball in his hands.
Despite only having 212 air yards, he still managed to finish with more than double that in actual receiving yards with 435. That's impressive and despite playing behind DeAndre Hopkins, Kirk, A.J. Green, and Zach Ertz, he still managed 70 targets, good for a 14.3% target share. That's a healthy number for a rookie and shows the team's commitment to getting him the ball, even as a rookie. All of those things have the arrow pointing up for 2022.
As long as the offseason ends with Moore being the unquestioned slot receiver for Arizona, there's a good deal of upside here. He was drafted as the WR47 in Rotoballer's very early 2022 mock draft and is currently ranked as the WR43 on FantasyPros.
Kirk finished as the WR26 last season in that slot role, which doesn't guarantee Moore will win up that high, but it does show potential. With current costs in the WR40 range, there's plenty of upside for Moore to have a breakout sophomore season.
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Detroit Lions
In all honesty, St. Brown kind of already broke out. From Weeks 12–18, he was the overall WR2 and fourth among all receivers in PPG during that stretch – only Cooper Kupp, Davante Adams, and Deebo Samuel were better.
There are all kinds of beliefs as to why this happened. D'Andre Swift and T.J. Hockenson were out so he was the only one who could catch the ball. There was absolutely no target competition. It's all true, but at what point do we say that he simply just balled out and maybe that means he's good?
I mean, it's not like Amon-Ra St. Brown was the first player in the NFL to have a large number of his teammates injured, but I don't recall too many of those players reaching heights of being the WR2 over a period of seven weeks, which is damn near half the year. It ain't nothing.
As far as the "well, where was he the first 10 weeks of the season?" chatter... well, he was a rookie. Not everyone can step foot on the field like Ja'Marr Chase and dominate from day one. As Amy Grant would say, "it takes a little time sometimes..."
Every Rookie WR drafted Round 3 or later with an 80+ PFF receiving grade:
Antonio Brown
Doug Baldwin
Keenan Allen
Tyreek Hill
Chris Godwin
Terry McLaurin
Amon-Ra St Brown— Jakob Sanderson (RTDB) (@FF_RTDB) February 25, 2022
While I sometimes question just how PFF does their grading, it's really hard to argue that list right there. Clearly, they're doing something right. As a fantasy manager betting on St. Brown, the bet isn't that there won't be any target competition in Detroit, the bet is simply St. Brown is better than who he's competing for targets with.
The addition of D.J. Chark, which many view as a bad thing for the former USC Trojan, really shouldn't be. The Lions needed to add receivers. This isn't a question of St. Brown's talents, it's a numbers equation. They literally needed receivers from a numbers standpoint.
Chark is strictly an outside receiver and he's one who hasn't sustained a large target share in his career. This keeps the second-year receiver in the slot, which is where he was incredibly effective. Keeping Chark and Josh Reynolds on the outside, two solid deep ball threats will likely open up the middle of the field.
While Hockenson is still in Detroit, fantasy managers have been too quick to anoint him as an elite tight end. He's good, maybe even very good, but he's not that good where he's going to make St. Brown irrelevant.
The Lions are once again going to field a terrible defense, one that is going to keep them having to throw the football more than what they'd like. In terms of fantasy football, that's great news for St. Brown. Jared Goff's own limitations work to his benefit.
While they added speed to keep defenses honest, Goff has never shown the ability to consistently throw the ball downfield. Fantasy managers shouldn't be surprised to see St. Brown flirt with 90 catches again in 2022.
He was recently drafted as the WR31 in Rotoballer's mock draft and is valued slightly higher than that at FantasyPros, WR27. There's not a ton of room for him to breakout, but in full-PPR scoring leagues, St. Brown could still be a plus advantage on his current valuation.
As the offseason continues, if his ADP continues to drop with fear of increased target competition, he only becomes a bigger buy.
D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers
While we've mostly focused on players who are ranked as WR3s or worse, D.J. Moore is the one receiver who could very easily break into that elite tier. Look, I get it, we've been saying that forever. Hoping for it, forever.
While the Deshaun Watson dream scenario is dead, the reality is no matter what happens, it seems like a foregone conclusion he is going to get a substantial quarterback upgrade, one way or another. That maybe Jameis Winston or maybe Jimmy Garoppolo or Baker Mayfield or Matt Ryan.
I don't know, but I do know any of them are a lot better than Sam Darnold, Teddy Bridgewater, P.J. Walker, Kyle Allen, and the broken version of Cam Newton. This phrase is way overused in fantasy football, but in this case, it's true – and it ain't even close.
Among Wide Receivers Age 21-24 since 2000
D.J. Moore ranks —
•5th in total receptions
•4th in total receiving yardsHe’s played 3/4 of his career with —
•Kyle Allen
•Teddy Bridgewater
•Sam DarnoldThere’s more to see here, if Carolina ever finds a QB. pic.twitter.com/pG64bM5qXE
— Curtis Patrick 🥇 (@CPatrickNFL) February 13, 2022
Despite the utterly pathetic quarterback play he's been cursed with, he's still managed to have seasons of 1,175, 1,193, and 1,157 yards. Even more impressive, he's done that while working as a deep threat receiver in 2020 when he only had 66 catches and a yard per reception average of 18.1 and in more of a possession receiver role in 2019 and 2021 when he had 87 and 93 catches. He can do it all and on a pure talent basis, he's one of the best.
D.J. Moore target shares by season:
2018: 15.07%
2019: 24.5%
2020: 24.23%
2021: 28.17%All he needs is competent QB play with a functioning offense.
That's it.
— Frank Ammirante (@FAmmiranteTFJ) March 7, 2022
And he's only getting better – look at those target shares. One of the things that have held the former Terrapin receiver is a lack of touchdowns. He's scored only four times each of the past two seasons. Certainly, the lackluster quarterback play hasn't helped, but neither has the injuries to Christian McCaffrey which has hurt the overall offense.
Below you'll find a graph of the old quarterbacks Moore has caught passes from since 2019 and their TD rate the year they were in Carolina. On the right, you'll find the career TD rate of the most likely quarterback upgrades Carolina likely ends up with.
| Old Quarterbacks | Possible Quarterback Upgrades | ||
| Name | TD Rate | Name | TD Rate |
| Cam Newton | 3.20% | Jimmy Garoppolo | 5.00% |
| Kyle Allen | 3.30% | Baker Mayfield | 4.80% |
| Sam Darnold | 2.20% | Jameis Winston | 5.00% |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 3.00% | ||
Those are not small differences. The 16th NFL team in pass attempts last year had 595 attempts. With Newton and Allen, that is about 19 touchdowns. For Darnold, it's 13, and for Teddy, it's 18. On the flip side, Jimmy G. and Winston would have 30 and Mayfield would have 29.
Even if we look at the worst quarterback on the right side, Mayfield, and the best on the left, we're talking about a difference of 10 touchdowns. For a player whose only drawback has been touchdowns, any of those four upgrades could equal a top-10 finish.
He was drafted as WR19 in the RotoBaller mock and is valued as the WR16 by FantasyPros going into 2022, but if the Panthers upgrade at quarterback to any of those four quarterbacks, Moore could finally become the elite receiver fantasy managers have been treating him as. He is the best bet of players ranked as mid-to-late WR2s who could easily become a top-10 receiver.
Honorable Mentions - Wide Receiver Breakout Candidates
Gabriel Davis, Buffalo Bills
He has played minimally the last two seasons and unfortunately, the coaching staff didn't trust him entering 2021 and instead brought in Emmanuel Sanders, but when he's gotten his opportunities, he's played very well. He had 17 red-zone targets last season, which ranked 14th among receivers despite limited playing time and he had 12 as a rookie, which ranked 29th. He's a red-zone weapon, especially with Josh Allen at quarterback.
He averaged 15.7 yards per reception, which ranked 11th among qualifying receivers, and averaged 1.93 yards per route run, which ranked 34th. His 2.0 points per target ranked 22nd. The Bills have released Cole Beasley and resigned Isaiah McKenzie, but if they don't add a receiver early in the draft, Davis could be lining up opposite Diggs as the No. 2 starter for the Bills.
Emmanuel Sanders had 72 targets. Gabriel Davis had 65. 137 total. If Davis gets just 110 of those in 2022, based on his career averages, he’d finish with 62 catches (56% catch rate), 990 yards (16 YPR career average) & 11 touchdowns (10% TD rate).
— Rob (@RobFFSlayer) January 13, 2022
Fantasy managers are onto him already. He was drafted as the WR33 in our mock draft here and FantasyPros has him at WR36, but with his red-zone utilization the past two seasons, if he becomes a full-time player in 2022, it's possible Davis finds the end zone double-digit times and that will put him in play for a WR2 finish.
Fantasy managers will need to pay attention to see who else the Bills add at receiver, but if the status quo holds, his efficiency metrics indicate he could be a breakout candidate with more playing time.
Kadarius Toney, New York Giants
The Giants haven't done anything in free agency yet, which isn't a bad thing for Toney's fantasy prospects. They reworked Sterling Shepard's deal, but he's unlikely to be ready for 2022 after suffering a torn Achilles late in the 2021 season.
He's struggled with availability his whole career and fantasy managers should expect Toney to be the starter in the slot entering the new campaign.
1st & 2nd round WRs to average 2.00 YPRR or more in their rookie season since 2011 (min 100 routes)
Ja'Marr Chase
Kadarius Toney
Justin Jefferson
AJ Brown
Deebo Samuel
JuJu Smith-Schuster
Michael Thomas
Devin Funchess
Odell Beckham Jr
Mike Evans
AJ Green
Julio Jones
Randall Cobb— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) February 28, 2022
Toney himself struggled with injuries as a rookie and his playing time was minimal, but when he was on the field, he was effective. His target rate of 28.9% and hog rate of 19.1% both ranked seventh among receivers.
When he was in a route, he received targets at an elite rate. That's great news especially on a team without a true alpha receiver. He also averaged 2.13 yards per route run, which ranked 17th.
He was drafted as the WR43 in our mock here and is valued at the WR42 on FantasyPros, but if he's the full-time slot receiver next season and earning targets as he did as a rookie, he could easily be a WR3 and possibly maybe even WR2 in full-PPR leagues, although that's getting a little ambitious considering his quarterback situation.
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