MLB Home Run Player Prop Bets Today: Best Hitter HR Props (7/20/2025)

July 20, 2025

Koby's best MLB player prop bets for today (7/20/2025). Bet his home run props (HR props) and win money betting on MLB player props, including Oneil Cruz, Michael Harris II, Ketel Marte, and Willi Castro.

Welcome Back, RotoBallers! Home run props have slowly become one of my favorite things to research each day, and although they can be unrewarding when they finally do hit, seeing the hard work pay off is awesome. Having nearly a week off was a nice break, but it is time to lock back in and find some dingers!

The weather is looking great today, and I haven't noticed any games that should be avoided at the moment due to rain, but the Cubs/Red Sox game has wind blowing in from center field that could hold some extra balls in the park, so I'll likely avoid that game unless something changes. Other than that, it is a hot summer day across the nation, so let's cash some dingers, shall we!

Below, you can check out four of my favorite home run props from MLB games on Sunday, July 20, 2025. Odds for each prop are from DraftKings Sportsbook and may change throughout the day. Remember to shop around at other sportsbooks for the best price, which gives you more value on your bets. It's also important to risk only a small portion of your bankroll on home run props since this market is extremely volatile. You can also combine these props with other picks into SGP or round robin plays that provide even more potential upside. I typically play a small unit size on home run props and round robins, but stacking them up creates the opportunity to cash in bigger if more than one player in this post goes yard.

MLB Prop Bets - Today's Home Run Prop Picks (7/20/2025)

Here are all the hitters I'll cover for HR props on Sunday, July 20:

• Oneil Cruz, Pittsburgh Pirates
• Michael Harris II, Atlanta Braves
• Ketel Marte, Arizona Diamondbacks
• Willi Castro, Minnesota Twins

Oneil Cruz OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+360 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Oneil Cruz may have come up short in the Home Run Derby, but that didn't stop him from showing off his limitless power with one of the longest home runs hit in Derby history, tying Aaron Judge's mark of 513 feet! Cruz profiles great here against the RHP in Aaron Civale. Civale sports the highest HR/9 on the slate at 1.71 and also has a HardHit% of 40% and a Barrel% of 10.9%. Both sides of the plate have been successful against Civale with five home runs against each side, but I love Cruz here being the lefty on righty matchup.

Cruz is going to always show up great on every stat sheet with a 21.8% Barrel% and a 57.9% HardHit%, both of which are just absurd numbers. He has been strikeout-prone, but I do believe that comes with the territory and how hard he swings the bat. Civale doesn't have great Swing and Miss stuff, though, so I'm less worried about that here in this spot. We do have some nice wind gusts blowing out towards center field at 10 mph, which is normally where it starts to peak my interest.

Oneil Cruz tweaked his stance and it looks like it's paying off 🏴‍☠️

Stat of the Game brought to you by Pennsylvania Western University@PennWestUniv | #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/91RV62C8fp

— SportsNet Pittsburgh (@SNPittsburgh) July 19, 2025

I think we are getting some incredible value at +360 for a player who can hit the ball as hard as Cruz, who has 15 of 16 home runs coming against RHP. Bryan Reynolds also profiles well here and has two home runs against Civale, so take a look at him if you are looking for someone with a bit longer odds.

Michael Harris II OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+550 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Michael Harris has had a bit of an up-and-down season this year, but he looked back on track in yesterday's game, which felt like its own home run derby with six home runs hit. That included one from Harris that he hit 438 feet! Marcus Stroman has been off to a rough start this season and has a 1.48 HR/9 that has resulted in four home runs this season, three of which to lefties. Stroman is also sporting a 48.8% HardHit% and a 10.7 Barrel%.

Stroman has specifically been hit by his Cutter and Sinker pitches this season. Both of which Harris has hit well this year and last season. Harris has hit three of his six home runs off those pitches and four specifically off the Cutter last season. If Harris can get a hold of that Cutter, he could very well send it to the Chop House in today's game, which is supposed to be a balmy 90 degrees.

ATL - Michael Harris II Solo HR (7)

📏 Distance: 438 ft
💨 EV: 108.5 mph
📐 LA: 26°
⚾️ 80 mph curveball (NYY - RHP Will Warren)
🏟️ Would be out in 30/30 MLB parks

NYY (0) @ ATL (1)
🔻 3rd#BravesCountry pic.twitter.com/9Fq0MoUcda

— MLB Home Runs🚀 (@MLBHRs_) July 19, 2025

Like I said, Harris had a rough start to the season, but there are still plenty of games to turn it around, and if yesterday's home run was any indication, then Harris could go back-to-back against Stroman, who has been pretty rough this season. Additionally, I love the odds we're getting on Harris here at +550.

Ketel Marte OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+295 DraftKings Sportsbook)

Keep an eye on this one, but it looks like Ketel Marte should return to the lineup in this one after having a personal day off for yesterday's game. That being said, he is returning at a great time, as he faces off against Miles Mikolas, whom he has had solid success against with two home runs. Mikolas has struggled against LHH this season, too, with a 1.79 HR/9. 10 of his 15 home runs have come against LHH this season. Mikolas is also sporting a hefty 12.1% Barrel%, which is the second-highest on the slate.

Marte has done a great job against RHP this season, where he has a .439 wOBA, .618 SLG, and .306 ISO. He has seen 15 of his 19 home runs come against them as well this season. It is supposed to be super hot in Arizona at a balmy 95 degrees, so the balls should have no issue cutting through the air. Marte has crushed the four-seamer, too, which happens to be Mikolas' most hit pitch for a home run. Marte is in line to hit his third home run against him tonight.

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Willi Castro OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+480 FanDuel Sportsbook)

It wouldn't be a home run article without someone hitting one in Coors Field! I'm going with someone who has longer odds rather than your typical Byron Buxton or Kody Clemens, who have great righty splits by the way. Willi Castro lines up great against German Marquez as well. The majority of Marquez's home runs have come off the Four-Seamer and the Knuckle Curve. Both of which have been great for Castro, who has hit four of his five home runs against RHP off those two pitches.

Marquez has had eight of his 12 home runs come against LHH and has a .507 SLG and .382 wOBA, half of which have also come at home. Lefties should be able to have a field day against him here. Castro has the longest odds of any of the lefties projected to play for the Twins today. Castro has a respectable 43.3% HardHit% and a 7.5 Barrel%. I think we see quite a few home runs coming from both teams in this one, but I do like Castro quite a bit to go yard here at Coors.

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