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Kyle Ringstad’s KBO DFS picks for 7/12/2020. He breaks down the KBO slate for FanDuel and DraftKings and offers his favorite pitchers, hitters, and value plays for DFS contests.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! These last few months without our usual professional sports have been rough, but we can take solace in the fact that DFS contests haven't stopped and KBO has provided us with some exciting content in what has become an unusually empty summer to this point (sincere apologies to UFC and PGA).
My general strategy is to keep an eye on the betting lines found at Bovada and identify potential starting pitchers and hitter stacks to target from there (combined with a little statistical analysis, of course). If you have the ability to stay up until an hour before lock, do yourself a huge favor and check out RotoWire's daily lineups to make sure you're playing guys who are actually starting. Lastly, keep an eye on MyKBOStats.com for updated weather projections.
* Weather Alert *
DOO/LOT, SK/HAN, and KIW/KIA matchups are all in danger of being rained out, according to MyKBOStats.com. The KIW/KIA game looks especially doubtful to play, at least the way it looks right now. Keep an eye on the status of those games and be prepared to adjust your lineup(s) accordingly.
Reminder: the FanDuel and DraftKings slates lock at 4:00 (ET) on Sunday, July 12, 2020. Follow me @kringstad19 (and my fellow KBO analysts @ehatch1990DFS or @MarkStrausberg. You can also find our betting picks here).
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KBO DFS Pitchers
Here's something you don't see to often - the road team is favored in all five games today. As mentioned above, the KIW/KIA game has seriou s weather concerns, while DOO/LOT and SK/HAN also have rain in the forecast. Both sites did a great job pricing up Chang-mo Koo where he belongs, but it's still not enough to take us off of him. We do have a few enticing options for SP2 or GPP plays on this slate, but make sure to keep an eye on the weather.
Chang-mo Koo - Starting P ($31 FanDuel, $10400 DraftKings)
Koo is the top arm in the KBO. He the leads the entire league in K% (30.4%), K/BB (6.31), batting average against (.179), WHIP (0.81), and FIP (2.42). He is 8-0 on the season and ranks second behind Eric Jokisch with an unbelievable 1.48 ERA. Look at all those dark green boxes up there! Koo's matchup never really matters, but LG encouragingly ranks seventh in runs per game (4.91) and ninth in home runs per game (0.53) at home this season. The Dinos are favored by 1.5 runs in a game with a 9.5-run total. To top it all off, this is a game that doesn't have any weather concerns and is being played at the LG's park, which is a pitcher's paradise. Eat the chalk and start the man.
Seung-won Moon - SK Starting P ($27 Fanduel, $8400 DraftKings)
Of course, the optimal strategy on DraftKings is to select Koo and take your chances with a low-priced SP2 option so that you can fit in some high-value bats. However, on a tricky slate that may see a few games washed away due to weather, taking the top-two projected starting pitchers could be a contrarian play that pays off. Of course, this is one of the games with rain in the forecast, but if it plays, Moon is a solid pick with plenty of upside. He holds a 23.2% K% to go along with a 3.18 ERA and a 3.36 FIP, which all point to success against the punch-less Hanwha Eagles. This game has the lowest projected run total at 8.5 runs, and Moon's Wyverns are 1.5-run favorites on the road.
Si-hwan Chang - HAN Starting P ($26 FanDuel, $7100 DraftKings)
Here's a pay-down SP2 option for a slightly-more-balanced approach on DraftKings. Chang's numbers are not impressive, but what we're looking at here is his 23.4% K% (second on the slate) and his delicious matchup against the SK Wyverns. This is the rubber-match of the series and SK scored five runs in each game, but Chang has the ability to shut down their unimposing lineup. He comes into this start on a serious roll, holding Lotte, Kia, and Samsung to one run each. He racked up a combined 19 strikeouts in those starts, and those are much better offenses than SK. He's 1-1 against SK this year with a 4.22 ERA, but he picked up a whopping 14 strikeouts. He's looks to be a high-upside SP2 pick at a low price tag.
Note: Chang is a DraftKings only option.
David Buchanan - SAM Starting P ($27 FanDuel, $7900 DraftKings)
Buchanan doesn't appear to be an optimal play, as he's facing the dangerous KT offense with an inflated 1.15 HR/9 rate and an ERA (3.82) that's not backed up by his FIP (4.86). However, if any (or all) of the three weather-concern games get cancelled, Buchanan jumps into the conversation as an SP2 on DraftKings. He's 7-3 on the season and his stats show enough to suggest that he can at least notch a win and a few strikeouts against the Wiz. He went 6 and 2/3 innings against KT on back on 6/13, allowing two earned runs and recording three strikeouts.
Note: Buchanan is a DraftKings only option.
*Longshot GPP Play*
Hyun-hee Han - KIW Starting P ($23 FanDuel, $7500 DraftKings)
Hyun-hee Han is intriguing here as the Heroes are 1.5-run favorites against KIA, but I would hesitate building lineups around him (at least initially) as the game looks likely to be cancelled. The appeal with Han, other than being a favorite, is that he should be a great leverage play with everyone scared off by his 5.94 ERA and subpar 15.6% strikeout rate. Digging deeper, his 3.84 FIP ranks fourth on the slate, indicating that he's pitching significantly better than his ERA shows. You're looking to get the win bonus and 3-5 strikeouts with Han as your low-ownership SP2.
KBO Top Hitter Stacks
Ideally, you'd like to target offenses in the highest run total games who are facing pitchers (and bullpens) that are likely to give up a crooked number. The DOO/LOT matchup has the highest projected total at 11.5 runs and Lotte's pitcher is arguably the worst on the slate, but it has weather concerns. Samsung's value bats and NC's powerful lineup should both be strongly considered as they have favorable matchups and no issues with weather.
Doosan Bears
We're going to need value to fit in Koo, and we actually do have some options here within Doosan's stacked lineup. Mix and match these players and stack them if you can. This game has a projected total of 11.5 runs, and Lotte's Won-sam Jang has been absolutely lit up in three starts this year. He holds a 7.20 ERA, 1.8 HR/9, 5.9% K%, 46% LOB%, and 6.46 FIP.
Soo-Bin Jung ($9, $2600) - Jung returned to the lineup last night and promptly went 2-for-4 with a run scored in the loss. Jung hits ninth in the order and holds a .082 ISO, but he's a great way to get a cheap piece of this explosive lineup.
Jae-Won Oh ($7, $2700) - Jae-Won Oh actually leads Doosan with a .250 ISO, though he has only logged about one-third of the at-bats as the regular starters. He's a solid contributor in the lineup and is an absolute steal at his price on both sites.
Se-Hyuk Park ($7, $4200) - Park is another FanDuel salary-saver on the Bears and is a great option at catcher on DraftKings. He's hitting .298/.368/.410 on the year, with three homers, 25 RBI, and 26 runs scored.
Jose Miguel Fernandez ($17, $6200) - If you can somehow squeeze this type of salary in, it'd be wise to consider Fernandez. He leads the team in batting average (.376) and runs scored (52). Additionally, he's hitting .391 with three home runs and five RBI over his last five games played.
Joo-Hwan Choi ($13, $4000) - Joo-Hwan Choi seems a bit underpriced relative to his production. He's hitting .310 on the season with eight homers, 43 RBI, and 33 runs scored and generally hits in the five-spot in the order.
Samsung Lions
Samsung has cooled off a bit recently, but KT's Min-Su Kim represents a great spot for them to put up big numbers. Kim has a 5.79 ERA, 10.9% BB%, and a 13.7% K%. Additionally, he has a slate-worst .352 batting average against and a painful 1.83 WHIP - those are definitely statistics that we want to attack. Ja-Wook Koo is out for about a week, meaning we have Saladino and a bunch of value bats to choose from.
Tyler Saladino ($13, $4600) - Saladino is hitting .293/.413/.504 and has added six homers, 27 RBI, and 25 runs scored. He also has some stolen-base upside with five steals for the year.
Sang-Su Kim ($8, $4700) - Kim has zero home runs for the year, but he's hitting .330/.436/.412 as a fixture at the leadoff spot for the Lions. He leads the team with 14 doubles, 36 runs scored and seven steals this season.
Won-Seok Lee ($8, $3900) - Won-Seok Lee is the team's RBI leader with 41, and he has added six homers and 27 RBI as well.
Sung-Gyu Lee ($9, $3500) - Sung-Gyu Lee actually leads the Lions with a .235 ISO, but he only has 81 at-bats in 2020. He's hitting just .198 and holds a 24.5% K%, so you'll likely need a homer out of him to hit value.
Min-Ho Kang ($7, $3900) - Samsung's catcher looks to be a steal at his FanDuel price. Though he hits toward the bottom of the order, Kang has seven homers on the year to go along with a .218 ISO (third on the team).
Hae-Min Park ($7, $3000) - Hae-Min Park is hitting .301/.325/.460 in 2020, adding five home runs and 30 runs scored. He also leads Samsung in triples with two.
NC Dinos
NC would be the high-priced lineup to stack if the DOO/LOT game rains out. The Dinos are facing LG's Yun-Sik Kim, who is in the running with Won-Sam Jang as the worst pitcher on the slate. Kim has a 7.24 ERA, 1.98 HR/9, 12.1% K%, .333 batting average against, and 6.60 FIP. Despite LG's park being pitcher-friendly, NC shouldn't have a tough time producing in this matchup. Honestly - the entire lineup is in play. Here are the top targets:
Aaron Altherr ($15, $5700) - Altherr has demolished LG in the series so far, hitting 5-for-10 with two homers and five RBI. He's slashing .308/.378/.610 with 15 home runs, 52 RBI, 43 runs scored, and 11 steals in 2020.
Eui-Ji Yang ($13, $5800) - Yang is the top catcher in the KBO as he holds a .303/.377/.553 slash line with eight homers, 39 RBI, and 28 runs scored. He's in a bit of a slump, but that could easily change tonight.
Suk-Min Park ($10, $4700) - Suk-Min Park is slashing .295/.407/.483 this year, adding eight homers, 30 RBI, and 28 runs scored. Great value relative to his production
Sung-Bum Na ($18, $5800) - Na has an egregious salary, but he's definitely worth paying up for. He's just as good a bet to go yard as anyone on the slate.
Other stacks/hitters to consider:
- KT is facing Samsung's David Buchanan, who has had a solid year that may look a little better than his 4.86 FIP indicates. His 1.15 HR/9 is the third-worst on the slate, meaning we can attack him with KT's power bats. Of course, this means Mel Rojas Jr. ($17, $6300) and Baek-Ho Kang ($16, $5500) are in play. Jeong-Dae Bae ($10, 3400) and Han-Joon Yoo ($11, $3300) are the next-best targets.
- Getting some Lotte bats in against Doosan's Young-Ha Lee seems appropriate. Lee has a 5.79 ERA, 13.7% K%, 10.9% BB%, and a slate-leading 1.85 WHIP. This also projects as the highest-scoring game at 11.5 runs. Jun-Woo Jeon ($12, $4000), Dae-Ho Lee ($10, $3800), Ah-Seop Son ($13, $3900), and Hoon Jung ($9, $3700) are the top targets on the Giants.
Good luck with your KBO DFS lineups tonight and thanks for checking out my KBO DFS lineup picks here at RotoBaller!
