Sleeping Giants: Why Daniel Jones and His Receivers Are Undervalued

May 9, 2020

Frank Ammirante explains why the New York Giants offense, especially QB Daniel Jones, could be undervalued in fantasy football drafts in 2020.

The key to securing a fantasy football championship is to identify undervalued players before they become popular sleepers and shoot up draft boards. We also want to target offenses that are forced into shootouts due to porous defenses. The team that fits these criteria for 2020 is none other than the New York Giants.

The main attraction on the Giants’ offense is running back Saquon Barkley, a generational talent who will routinely come off the board within the first two picks of any draft. However, when you take a closer look at the rest of their skill players, you come away with a few intriguing value targets at quarterback and wide receiver. 

Sophomore quarterback Daniel Jones has three solid receivers at his disposal: second-year stand-out Darius Slayton, perennial breakout pick Sterling Shepard, and veteran stalwart Golden Tate. In this article, we’ll discuss what makes each pick an underrated target, as well as determine the best receiver in this offense.

Daniel Jones - Fantasy Sleeper?

NFFC ADP: 85.6, QB13

2019 Stats

Daniel Jones performed reasonably well as a rookie, mixing in flashes of brilliance with struggles with consistency. He averaged 35.3 pass attempts, 232.8 passing yards, and 24.5 rushing yards per game. The rushing totals were an added bonus, as Jones showcased the sneaky athleticism that helped make him the sixth selection in the 2019 NFL Draft. The fact that Jones is able to add fantasy points with his rushing yards increases both his weekly floor and ceiling. Simply put, in today’s fantasy football landscape, if your QB1 doesn’t add some rushing yardage, you’re lagging behind the competition.

Let’s take a look at Jones’ four upside performances because it’s these games that are most intriguing for fantasy owners.

It’s striking to see four 25+ point performances from a rookie quarterback. The only quarterbacks who were able to match or exceed this total were: Lamar Jackson (8), Deshaun Watson (6), Dak Prescott (5), Patrick Mahomes (4), Russell Wilson (4), Aaron Rodgers (4), Kyler Murray (4), and Jameis Winston (4), which puts the rookie Giant in elite company.

With quarterback being such a deep position, it’s imperative for your starter to mix in some ceiling weeks to put you ahead of the competition - Jones fits this criteria. While the 11 fumbles lost are a concern, part of this could be attributed to a rookie struggling to find his footing in the NFL. We can project improvement here with the added experience under center in the pros. At QB13, Daniel Jones is an underrated asset - he has a chance to finish within the Top-7 fantasy quarterbacks this season.

Giants Receivers

Darius Slayton - NFFC ADP: 116.9, WR41
Sterling Shepard - NFFC ADP: 135.0, WR49
Golden Tate - NFFC ADP: 161.3, WR54

2019 Stats

Each of these receivers are underrated because they are currently being drafted in the low-end WR3/high-end WR4 range, despite playing for a team that projects to be involved in several shootouts this season. Darius Slayton turned in a surprise season as a fifth-round rookie, showing immediate chemistry with Daniel Jones. Sterling Shepard had another injury-plagued year, but he’s still a 27-year old former second-round pick, so there’s potential here.

Golden Tate is the most proven of the bunch, with elite ability to generate yards after the catch. Slayton had the best season, but that’s partly because he played the most games. He’s generating the most hype due to his youth, while Tate is being discounted due to his age. Each of these receivers have the ability to take the reins as the number one target, but the question is, who will it be?

Split Stats

Let’s take a look at their stats when all three were on the field at the same time with Daniel Jones under center. Each receiver played together only four games this past season: vs. PHI, vs. MIN, @CHI, and @WAS. 

It’s clear that Slayton is the deep threat, while Shepard and Tate are underneath options in this offense. Shepard has downfield ability on the perimeter, but Tate is used almost exclusively in the slot, looking to wreak havoc on defenders with his YAC ability. We can also see that Slayton is not the main option here, as his season totals might lead you to believe.

At first glance, this means that Shepard and Tate look like better values at the moment, as you’re able to draft them 20-40 picks later. However, we also need to account for tight end Evan Engram, who is one of the premier downfield threats at his position. Engram only took the field for one game with this trio of receivers: Week 5 against the Minnesota Vikings. Let’s take a look at the stats for that game.

vs. Vikings

Engram definitely will take away some targets from these three receivers, as it looks as though he is the number one option in this offense. Engram’s presence hurts Tate the most, since the tight end will be targeted in the slot, which is where Tate does his damage. We also need to consider that Saquon Barkley will take some targets in the screen game, which hurts Tate’s value as well.

Barkley, Engram, Slayton, Shepard, and Tate were never on the field together in 2019. Because of this, Slayton looks like the best option at WR, since his deep-threat ability does not require too much target volume for fantasy production. However, Tate and Shepard still have WR3 upside, making them values at their current draft position.

2020 Context

The Giants have made improvements to their offensive line with the selection of offensive tackle Andrew Thomas at fourth overall in this past draft. Saquon Barkley and Evan Engram are now healthy, so for the first time in his young career, Daniel Jones will have all of his weapons at his disposal.

Jones is my favorite target at the quarterback position because of the upside he showed in his ceiling games as a rookie. Imagine what he could do with Barkley and Engram back in the fold. You would be wise to invest in one of their three receivers, as this is an intriguing offense that could really break out this season. 

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