RADIO
We're officially halfway through the NFL season, with several teams already having their bye weeks behind them. Nevertheless, injuries have begun to rack up. We saw this firsthand on Thursday night as Houston trotted reserve defensive backs out into full-time roles. Picking on the backups that precede starting defensive backs is a common strategy among DFS players, simply because it's a solid process. Fortunately, we have plenty of data to break down those matchups and pick the best ones to target for the coming week.
Nothing is more important than matchup analyzation when it comes to fantasy football. Playing your teams’ best players on a regular basis is important, but picking apart the top matchups on a week to week basis can win you a championship, or even better, some cold hard cash in DFS. Matchups for the wide receiver position aren’t always as black and white as they can be for other positions. Receivers need to be broken down even deeper by analyzing the potential cornerback matchup they’re going to draw. This is especially true in potential shadow coverage cases such as any time an X receiver plays against Patrick Peterson and the Arizona Cardinals. Some analytical data used here such as fantasy points allowed per route covered, and percentage of routes run on the left side, right side, and in the slot is courtesy of Pro Football Focus.
Now, here are the top WR vs CB matchups for Week 8. Use these to set season-long lineups, as well as gain a competitive edge in the Daily Fantasy realm.
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WR/CB Matchups to Target
CIN WR Tyler Boyd Versus TB CB M.J. Stewart
All of the Tyler Boyd this week, please and thank you.
I've been targeting M.J. Stewart for over a month now in DFS, and it continued to pay off in Week 7 with Jarvis Landry. Only two CBs have allowed more touchdowns since the start of Week 3 than Stewart, and just six have allowed a higher passer rating when thrown at.
I love the idea of going right back to Boyd after he was a bust the week prior. His performance against the Chiefs last week was arguably his worst of the season, which gives me even more incentive to roster him in all formats.
Pivot: A.J. Green
Cincinnati has the third-highest implied total on the entire Week 8 slate. I want exposure to all skill position players, including a hefty dose of A.J. Green. Green leads the team by a significant margin in target and air-yards share, and his matchup is juicy as well.
GB WR Geronimo Allison Versus LAR CB Troy Hill
Geronimo has been in concussion protocol for what seems like an eternity. It's comforting to hear he's expected to play this Sunday in what should be a monstrous offensive explosion at Lambeau Field. The Packers face off against the Rams in a game with an implied total just south of 60. Aaron Rodgers is going to smash in this game, and I expect him to bring his wideouts with him. It's so easy to forget how consistent Allison was before the concussion. He scored at least 12.4 DK points in every single game before getting hurt.
Allison will square off against the revolving door CB2 position. Specifically, he should see plenty of Troy Hill and some of Marcus Peters. Both players have been extremely vulnerable this year. Hill has been especially bad over his last three contests, allowing 12 catches for 218 yards and a touchdown in that span. He's surrendered the most yards per coverage snap in the NFL through that same time window.
This is a smash spot for all parties involved. Allison is fairly priced given his floor and deep threat potential at just $5,000.
Pivot: Randall Cobb
Randall Cobb has a lower floor but a higher ceiling than Allison, and he's right around the same price at $4,900. He's still listed as questionable but is expected to play. He'll be lower owned, but also has a tougher matchup than Allison. He's a solid tournament play, but I'd rather just play Allison in cash.
ARI WR Christian Kirk Versus SF CB Greg Mabin
Christian Kirk has emerged as Arizona's WR1 since Josh Rosen took over the offense. Mike McCoy has been fired after just six games coordinating the Cardinals offense, so a lot is up in the air for Arizona right now. Kirk did, however, score 18 DK points when he faced the San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. He can definitely replicate the success at home with a new offensive coordinator calling the shots.
Kirk will draw Greg Mabin, who's allowed the eighth-most yards per coverage snap over the last three games. Kirk still leads his team in air-yards over the last three weeks as well, giving him some serious deep ball potential in Week 8.
Kirk is closer to a punt-play than a lock of any format, but you could do much worse for $4,500.
CHI WR Anthony Miller Versus NYJ CB Parry Nickerson
Anthony Miller missed the boat in Week 4 where he was supposed to matchup with M.J. Stewart. He finally draws a favorable CB matchup in Week 8 with Parry Nickerson.
This could be Miller's breakout performance, given how underwhelming the rookie WR has been. He's caught more than two balls just once all season, but he's been thrown to in the red zone on numerous occasions. Miller also leads Chicago WRs in air-yards percentage and target market share over the last two weeks. He's $3,400 on DK this week.
Finally, this matchup against Nickerson is interesting given that he's surrendered the second-most receiving yards in the league since the start of Week 5. A home matchup against a severely depleted Jets team screams of a 'get right' game for the entire Bears team, and a Mitch Trubisky-Miller stack should reap a solid portion of the benefits.
Pivot: Tarik Cohen
Tarik Cohen will garner more ownership, and he's significantly more expensive. That being said, he's a solid hybrid-play, while Miller is mostly limited to GPP-only lines. I could get behind stacking the trio in a tournament.
OAK WR Jordy Nelson Versus IND CB Quincy Wilson
Jordy Nelson leads all Oakland WRs in fantasy points over their last three games, and that was with Amari Cooper and Marshawn Lynch involved in the offense. Cooper has since departed for Dallas, while Lynch has been placed on injured reserve. There's an entire field of usage that just opened up in this offense, and I expect Nelson to earn his share.
IND CB Quincy Nelson has allowed the most receiving yards per route in coverage snap on his team over the past two games, and he's surrendering catches at a more frequent rate than any other IND defensive back over that same span. I love this matchup for Nelson, who's caught a touchdown in three of his last four games.
Pivot: Martavis Bryant
It wouldn't surprise me if both Martavis Bryant and Jalen Richard are higher owned than Nelson this week. I think the matchup is good enough to make Nelson a hybrid-play, while Bryant is more of a tournament-only play. Richard is in a different spot entirely with Lynch out of the picture. I wouldn't hesitate to roster him anywhere, but I wouldn't stack him with any of his teammates.
