RADIO
Similar to the previous article on wide receivers, we will be focusing on running backs that have extremely low ADPs in most drafts. I’m looking to discuss players that are on the “Island of Misfit Toys” or players that are “Dumpster Dives.” Players that will be drafted to sit on your bench or end up in the waiver wire to start the season.
As easily as I am making cases for these players, other analysts and experts may want nothing to do with them. My job is to convince you to take them late in your drafts as a dart throw or stash due to the tremendous upside, despite obvious risks.
That begs the question...
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To Draft or Not to Draft? Running Backs
ADP Rankings below are average from five commonly used sites where ADP is calculated.
Kyle Juszczyk, San Francisco 49ers
2018 ADP: N/A
I know, this is a reach upon reaches. For some, Kyle Juszcyk isn't even listed as a deep-deep sleeper. He doesn't have an ADP at all, and he's not even 1% owned on an average of sites that were combed through. However, he provides potential value as a pass-catcher. His counterparts Matt Brieda and Alfred Morris have shown little value in PPR leagues. Stash him in your deep-bench, 12-team or larger leagues, as I do not expect him to be drafted at all.
His real-life position states he is a fullback, fortunately for us, he is a former tight end who can catch the ball when called upon. In college, he finished his career with 125 receptions, 1,576 yards, and 22 touchdowns. His first stop with the Baltimore Ravens showcased his receiving skill sets. Not only has he been often compared to John Kuhn, a good player in his own right, he has also been selected to two consecutive Pro Bowls.
For fantasy purposes, he provides great hands for a fullback. Since 2015, he has compiled 152 targets. Among eligible running backs, this ranked him 13th in targets in 2015, 24th in 16', and 24th in 17'. As for his catch percentage, he has a respectable career average of 74.7%
Again, do not take this as a must draft situation unless in deeper leagues, but consider Juszczyk a sneaky value with pass-catching potential during the season.
Javorius (Buck) Allen, Baltimore Ravens
2018 ADP: RB61
Buck Allen had a great 2017 campaign. With very similar numbers to his 2015 rookie year, he had 46 receptions, 891 total yards from scrimmage, and six touchdowns. He had nine games with at least 14 touches, but they were never consistent, they were spread throughout the season, particularly the beginning.
The downside for Allen is Alex Collins. The Baltimore Ravens are confident they have found their starting RB in Collins as he garnered double-digit carries from week four into the rest of the season. However, Allen will still finagle third-down work, as well as the potential for pass-catching work during two-minute drills.
The upside is there if Collins struggles out of the gate. The Ravens are not afraid to give Allen the ball, and he has proven he can gain good chunk plays averaging 4.2 YPT in 2017.
In PPR leagues, Allen offers some flex appeal in deeper leagues. At worst, he is a late-round flier in your draft, with hopes that he gains more opportunity similar to the start of 2017.
Kalen Ballage, Miami Dolphins
2018 ADP: RB 69
Not only is he behind Kenyan Drake for touches, he will also start the season behind Frank Gore. At the rate Gore is playing, Ballage will be behind him until 2025. Luckily for Ballage, he is an explosive rookie that runs a 4.46 forty yard dash and had a Speed Score in the 96th percentile during the Combine. Speed Score evaluates a player's size versus his 40 yard dash time.
While not much tape for Ballage in the preseason, he looked great in his debut. He left the field with confidence after averaging 6.25 YPC, three catches for 37 yards, and a touchdown. His cutback touchdown early in the game looked smooth and clean as he practically went untouched for a nine-yard score.
For hopeful playing time, working in his favor are numerous circumstances. While Drake is the lead back for the Miami Dolphins, he only got his larger workload during the last five games of the 2017 season. He did well in those games, but had been passed-up for Jay Ajayi and Damien Williams in backfield touches up to that point.
Adam Gase has stated he would like to see Drake receive at least 25 touches a game this season, but the coaches track record suggests that this may be more of a timeshare than most realize. All of the more reason to ask yourself, why is Frank Gore atop the depth chart to begin the season? It seems that the staff is unsure of the RBBC situation. Experts do not expect Gore to be a true number one, but it's a testament to the inevitable timeshare that will give Ballage a chance to showcase his skills. It will also help Ballage alleviate himself of the inconsistencies he showed in college. IE: Eight touchdowns in one game versus Texas Tech, and six for the remainder of the season.
Ballage is a stash play until that backfield works itself out. He has upside in PPR catching passes. Until then, hold onto him and see if he becomes 2018's Poor Man's Alvin Kamara.
Feel free to tell me your thoughts on these players on Twitter and follow me @DrakePFSA
