Injury Spin - Five Quarterbacks to Avoid

September 2, 2018

Inside Injuries discusses five quarterbacks they are wary of in 2018 fantasy football drafts, based on several factors including injury histories and overall upside.

Quarterback is the most important position on the football field and a critical one in fantasy as well. Late-round QB is becoming a standard drafting strategy, so picking the right signal caller is even more important if you choose to wait.

Inside Injuries predicts the impact of injuries on player performance by using data analytics, medical expertise and statistical modeling. You can read all about them and the great work they do on Twitter @InsideInjuries.

Today's article provides that injury spin and looks at injury histories and overall risk to help solidify some draft day decisions. Some of these players may feel like more obvious candidates to target in fantasy football drafts, but there are also risky picks that may not be so obvious. These quarterbacks may not be coming off serious injuries, but their style of play or team context could lead to disaster later on. While we don't advise you to completely take these players off your draft board, they all come with a "buyer beware" tag.

Five Risky Quarterbacks to Avoid

Alex Smith, Washington Redskins

Smith is coming off the best season of his career, finishing at QB4 and establishing new career-highs in virtually every passing category. However, the Chiefs saw fit to trade him to Washington as a result, which has to make you think something is amiss. His career-highs in passing yards (4,042), completions (341), touchdowns (26), and adjusted completion percentage for downfield throws (according to Pro Football Focus) are actually pretty pedestrian compared to some of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. So, that should tell you something right there.

Unfortunately, because of all those career highs, Smith is a candidate to regress and return to the kind of mediocre production he became known for during the first 13 years of his career when he averaged a little more than 17 passing TDs per season. Add in the fact that the Redskins don’t have anywhere near the receiving talent that Smith worked with in Kansas City and Smith becomes a poor starting option in fantasy rather quickly. Sure, you can grab him as a second quarterback on the cheap or stream him when the matchups look right, but never pay for a career year from any fantasy commodity.

Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams

First-year head coach Sean McVay transformed the Rams’ offense from a complete bust to one of the most prolific in the NFL in one short season. The most dramatic transformation was that of Jared Goff, who ended the 2017 season among the Top 5 quarterbacks in touchdown rate, yards per attempt, passer rating, and interception rate among others. Most of this newfound success was the result of a high tempo offense that was among the most efficient ever in NFL history.

Therein lay the problem with Goff this season. Repeating that historic level of efficiency is going to be difficult, especially since Goff only attempted 478 passes, the lowest amount among Top 12 quarterbacks. The improvements McVay made in the defense during the offseason will also likely mean even fewer pass attempts. Goff is also not very mobile, so he doesn’t contribute anything fantasy-wise with his feet. Goff is an excellent safe choice as your second QB but he will provide you with less than 20 fantasy points more often than not with the occasional big week, so you’re better off using him only in favorable matchups.

Eli Manning, NY Giants

There are two ways to look at Manning and the Giants offense this season. The first is to look at last year’s 31st ranked offense and the fact that Manning has been putting up declining numbers for three seasons and declare him finished. The second is to be optimistic and declare that they can only go up from here. Giants fans will almost certainly opt for the latter, especially since Odell Beckham Jr. is returning after missing all of last season, and rookie Saquon Barkley should give the team the running game it hasn’t had for quite some time.

As a fantasy analyst, I have to go with the former. Even with all of the Giants weapons at his disposal during the two years before last year’s dumpster fire, Manning’s numbers trended downward with few touchdowns, more interceptions and a declining completion rate. About the only thing still going for Manning is his durability. He hasn’t missed a game due to injury since taking over as quarterback in 2004. There is all kinds of upside here, but with so many fantasy viable quarterbacks available there just isn’t any reason to draft Manning except as a late-round flier.

Sam Bradford, Arizona Cardinals

If you were to ask me which quarterback is the most accident-prone, my answer would be Bradford. He’s had multiple knee injuries and has only played a full slate of 16 games twice in his seven-year career. Bradford will be with his fourth organization this season with a new coach and all new players. Most importantly, while he was signed for two years, Bradford is really just a placeholder for Josh Rosen whom many believe is the most NFL-ready QB from this year’s draft.

There is a good chance Bradford starts the season as the starting QB, but I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Rosen was eventually put in there just so Cardinals’ management can see what they’ve got. Between the injuries and his status in the organization, there is just too much risk to bother drafting Bradford. If he plays well, you can always stream him off the waiver wire.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers

Roethlisberger was already in the league’s concussion protocol this preseason (although he cleared in two days), but that’s not why you don’t want him. Historically, Big Ben has played very well in home games and very poorly on the road. It’s always been this way with Roethlisberger, so it’s not something new to this season.

Inside Injuries’ algorithm has Roethlisberger as a High overall Injury Risk with a Below Average Health Performance Factor. He’s just about the only quarterback to have those particular health performance issues. Combine his concussion concerns and lengthy injury history with his erratic play away from Pittsburgh and that’s a headache you don’t need. Let someone else deal with his issues.

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