RADIO
Editor's Note: Last week, Nick was ranked #7 overall on the experts accuracy results. And two weeks ago, he was ranked #3 overall. His rankings have been among the most accurate in the fantasy football industry. Pretty impressive stuff.
Below he compares his ranks to the rest of the industry again for Week 7, and tells you who he likes more or less than the other experts. So read up, take this man's advice, and be sure to follow all of his rankings for Week 7 (PPR, Half-PPR and Standard leagues).
Editor's Note: New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces, make a $20 deposit, and enter any game will receive our full season NFL (or NBA) Premium Pass for free, a $59.99 value. Just email [email protected] with your new FantasyAces username - and boom, that's it! We will email you with your Premium pass.
Week 6 Recap
Week 6 went pretty well, as we talked up Eli Manning as a bounceback candidate, tempered expectations on Jamaal Charles’ usage, said Cameron Meredith was for real and even picked out C.J. Fiedorowicz as a nice low-owned TE play.
It wasn’t all sunshine though, as Joe Flacco failed to find paydirt despite our call of him hooking up with Mike Wallace on a deep bomb, Willie Snead was the odd man out in the CAR-NO shootout and Devontae Booker couldn’t really deliver thanks to Denver falling on their face against San Diego. While the #7 finish overall out of the 140+ FantasyPros expert isn't as good as the #3 from Week 5, we'll take it!
Now it’s time to review my rankings for Week 7 and look at how they stack up against the Expert Consensus, commenting on any standouts or points of contention. Assume standard rankings when I say that a player is X spots ahead or below consensus.
Week 7 Quarterbacks - Rankings Analysis
There really aren’t that many great plays at the top this week, but headlining things is Mr. Matt Ryan. He’s under center for the best offense in the NFL thus far (33.2 PPG) and gets to play at home against a poor SD defense in a game that boasts the highest Vegas point total of the week at a whopping 53.5 points. That’s why Philip Rivers is #3 of course.
Outside of that I’ve got Andy Dalton a couple spots higher than the field, currently at #7 vs. their #10 consensus ranking. They’re facing Cleveland, who rank a “blah” 19th against the run per FootballOutsiders' DVOA, but are an embarrassing 30th against the pass. With Jeremy Hill likely not at 100%, look for Dalton to whip it himself.
I’ve also swapped Alex Smith and Russell Wilson at #13 and #15, because Arizona is looking a bit revamped out there (though playing the Jets helps) and gets to play at home versus a version of Wilson that clearly isn’t full strength. Meanwhile Smith gets to take on the Saints at home, and while KC’s commitment to the conservative run game can be maddening, the opportunity is still ripe here for a guy who has performed better at home thus far. Aside from that SD-ATL game, this is the only other one with a point projection of over 50.
Week 7 Running Backs - Rankings Analysis
*Doug Martin was listed here, but with the news of his injury setback we've removed that portion. As of this update on the night of 10/19, I have Jacquizz Rodgers at #18 compared to a the consensus ranking of #26, but that may be more from my fellow experts not updating their rankings yet.
My cohorts also have Chris Ivory and T.J. Yeldon back-to-back at #29 and #30, respectively. I think Ivory deserves a little more separation given that he out-touched Yeldon 13 to 7 in Jacksonville's Week 6 victory, including the one goal-line carry. When dealing with a committee, I'm going to give much more of a nod to the guy with the best chance at scoring six, let alone when he's also the one getting more touches.
So who is slipping in the ranks? How about Chicago’s Jordan Howard (#18 vs. #13 consensus), who is coming off of a disappointing Week 6 that saw his snap count go down to 69% from 95% with the return of Ka’Deem Carey. So his usage was scaled back, but the icing on the “uh-oh” cake here is that the Bears are on the road for a gritty divisional game against a Green Bay defense that ranks third against the run per DVOA. None of that is ideal, and despite Green Bay's recent struggles, I doubt Chicago controls this game enough to "put the game away" with their rushing attack.
Week 7 Wide Receivers - Rankings Analysis
Brandon Marshall was listed at #7 according to the consensus, but I’m not willing to put that much confident in the Jets offense, no matter how many targets Marshall gets flooded with in lieu of Eric Decker’s absence. As a result, I’ve got him at #11 outside of the top-10, and he’ll likely drop as the week progresses. It's not Marshall's fault and honestly the matchup against Baltimore is good (25th in DVOA against opposing #1 WRs), but the QB situation is hot garbage personified. Sigh.
Ty Montgomery (+9) and Adam Humphries (+14) are also both late movers who are likely buried a bit in the consensus rankings due to their respective situations being connected to recent injury news. Eddie Lacy is reportedly out for several weeks and James Starks has already been confirmed as such, so the Packers traded for Knile Davis and will likely lean on Montgomery out of the backfield for the foreseeable future. This may not mean rushes, but double-digit targets out of the flat are well within his range of outcomes. As for Humphries, he’ll also benefit a bit from Vincent Jackson heading to the IR and should see upwards of seven targets.
Week 7 Tight Ends - Rankings Analysis
So that whole Humphries benefiting from Jackson’s injury? It also goes for Cameron Brate, who I’ve got four slots higher than the consensus at #11 now that he should get an extra target or two. With Jackson on the shelf, Brate is now the only real sizable threat alongside target monster Mike Evans, who is likely to draw lots of coverage in the red zone (though he’ll still be a beast). Look for Brate to regularly see 7-10 targets from Jameis Winston from here on out.
Gary Barnidge is also a sneaky upside guy, as Terrelle Pryor is dealing with a hamstring injury (I’m sure he’ll be fine, but still) and Cincinnati has quietly been awful against tight ends this season (28th per DVOA). Barnidge has also topped 50 yards with at least five targets in each of his last four games, so he has a lot going for him despite not scoring a touchdown yet.
I’d rather talk more about the skill positions than include kicker or defense, as they are far less interesting to me. Feel free to send me a vitriolic message should you want them back, I’ll listen I swear.
Check out all of RotoBaller's fantasy football rankings. Staff rankings are updated regularly for all positions and include standard formats, PPR scoring, tiered rankings and dynasty leagues.
