October 15, 2016

Pierre Camus' top 10 potential lineup busts for Week 6 of the 2016 fantasy football season. Players to avoid in your lineups as underperformers and disappointments.

You've read about all the sleepers, waiver wire pickups and starter suggestions based on matchups. Now let me burst some bubbles and tell you who I think is going to bust big time in Week 6.

This isn't to troll or spread hate - that's what those political sites are for. Think of this as a public service for fanboys and truth deniers who insist that everything is going to be alright, when it's clearly not. If you don't believe me, just ask the general public on Twitter. They know everything.

Warning: while the picks made in this article are completely serious, you may find sarcastic humor laced throughout. If you don't have any sense of humor whatsoever, turn back now before you get all worked up.

Editor's Note: Be sure to check out FantasyAces DFS contests. New users that sign up on Fantasy Aces and make a $20 deposit will receive RotoBaller's full season NFL Premium Pass for free (including Premium DFS), normally a $59.99 value. Expert DFS research, sample lineups, matchup ratings and lots more!

Week 5 Recap

IMNSHO, last week was another resounding success in predicting failure. I wisely stayed away from all Steelers and/or quarterbacks. The problem is that it's hard to qualify what makes a player a true bust. If a player falls well short of his projected point totals for a given week, that should suffice. But what if he is just a couple points short? Several players put up mediocre numbers that make them neither true booms or busts. For that reason, I'm adding a third category. For my own statistical purposes, anything that isn't a boom is going straight into the win column, so I'm claiming 90% success for Week 5. This naturally means I'm due for regression this week. You've been warned.

Busts: Isaiah Crowell (13 CAR, 22 YDS, 0 TD), Matt Jones (14 CAR, 31 YDS, 2 REC, 25 YDS, 0 TD), Tajae Sharpe (2 REC, 17 YDS)

Sorta in-betweens: Alshon Jeffery (5 REC, 77 YDS, 0 TD), Giovani Bernard (9 CAR, 60 YDS, 6 REC, 56 YDS, 0 TD), Michael Crabtree (3 REC, 47 YDS, 1 TD), Terrance West (11 CAR, 95 YDS, 2 REC, -6 YDS, 0 TD), DeAndre Hopkins (5 REC, 56 YDS, 1 TD), Jordan Reed (8 REC, 53 YDS, 0 TD)

Booms: Darn you Brandon Marshall, I'll get you eventually! (8 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD)

Top 10 Busts for Week 6

Colin Kaepernick (QB, SF) - Let me start by going out on a huge limb: Kaepernick won't regain the magic of his 2013-14 seasons in San Fran this season. In addition to the fact he hasn't taken a regular season snap yet and ended last year with 179.4 passing YPG and a 6/5 TD/INT ratio, the Bills will present a tough challenge. Buffalo has allowed the fourth-least fantasy PPG to opposing QB. In five games, quarterbacks have thrown just two TD compared to six INT against the Bills. There may be hope for Kap in Chip Kelly's offense eventually, but it's recommended that you take a knee on him this week.

 
 
Eli Manning (QB, NYG) - Speaking of not recreating old magic... Eli Manning is starting to look more and more like his big brother. I mean the version from last season. In theory, Eli should have a few good years left in him and the addition of Sterling Shepard and return of Victor Cruz should be a boon to his stats. Last week, however, he couldn't take advantage of the Packers' banged-up secondary and now faces a much stingier defense in Baltimore. The run game is still in flux and as a result, the whole Giants' offense is trending steadily downward. He hasn't thrown more than one TD since Week 1 and his passing yards have declined each of the last three weeks. Finally, it turns out that Manning's career QBR against Baltimore (51.0) is the lowest of any team he has faced in the NFL, which is all of them. There are plenty of other QBs available these days, so benching Eli won't hurt. Just think of what he's doing to the value of poor OBJ and the other receivers though.

 
 
Kirk Cousins (QB, WAS) - You like that?!? No, not really. At least not this week. Truth be told, I own Cousins in about four different leagues and still believe he is a QB1 for fantasy purposes. The Eagles don't care what I think. They have been tough on opposing passers this season, allowing just three passing touchdowns in four games. Cousins is completing 67.2% of his passes and has tallied 1,432 yards, but he isn't necessarily a must-start each game. Take away one of his best weapons in Jordan Reed and it could be a good week to keep him on the sidelines. Maybe DeSean Jackson too, for that matter.

 
 
Mark Ingram (RB, NO) - Carolina is a middle-of-the-pack run defense over the first quarter of the season, but New Orleans is near the bottom in rushing offense. Through no fault of his own, Ingram has been underused and hasn't delivered enough return on value. 221 rushing yards and a 4.1 Y/A aren't bad, but they don't scream RB1, which is how Ingram was drafted in most leagues. My Spidey Sense tells me that Sean Payton will break his weekly promise to run the ball in a game that could turn into a shootout if Carolina has all of its key players back healthy. Actually, I don't think Payton even runs the offense any more. He lets Drew Brees call the plays and pass as much as he wants to. Payton's busy doing other things these days.

 
 
Cameron Meredith (WR, CHI) - Not to be a buzzkill, but I'm not counting on another 100-yard game here. Now that defenses are aware he exists, Meredith will face a stiffer test. With Jalen Ramsey expected to shadow Alshon Jeffery, Meredith should draw coverage from Prince Amukamara, who has graded out well this year. This matchup isn't as enticing as it may look at first glance, much like the entire Bears offense. Brian Hoyer has filled in admirably, but once Jay Cutler returns, the sky's the limit for all Bears receivers. According to reports, he has been rehabbing extensively and studying film in order to come back better than ever. Better looking, that is.

 
 
A.J. Green (WR, CIN) - Green has torched AFC East teams in Miami and New York for a combined 22 receptions, 353 yards and two TD in two games. Neither of those teams were the Patriots. A closer look reveals that Green had two bombs in Weeks 2 and 5 and a mediocre game against Denver sandwiched in between. The bigger concern is Green's calf, which held him out of practice Wednesday and has him listed as questionable for Week 6. If he plays, then you have to take your chances of course. Don't expect a huge game, as Green could fall short of projections even if he is targeted as usual. Feeding Green the ball is just one part of an elaborate plan the Bengals have concocted to win on Sunday after all.

 
 
Zach Miller (TE, CHI) - Miller is already iffy with a rib injury that limited him in practice this week. He is probable to start, however, and remains a popular streaming option among fantasy players. In an unprecedented move, I'm going to again advocate for the Jaguars' improving defense and vote against starting Miller this week. They have allowed a grand total of 105 yards and one TD to opposing tight ends all year. Miller has a nice role in this offense (because they have nobody else to throw to in the middle of the field), but expectations for him need to be tempered. He may be due for a breakout season, but it will likely come next year once the Bears decide he's too good to keep.

 
 
Jeremy Maclin (WR, KC) - The Chiefs' top receiver hasn't been too involved in the offense thus far, catching 20 balls for 244 yards. He is still the top target in KC and this week faces an Oakland defense that ranks dead last in passing yards allowed. The trick here is that most of those passing yards came in the first two weeks against New Orleans and Atlanta, two of the top offenses in the league. Maclin should face David Amerson for most of the day, who is currently ProFootballFocus's top rated corner. Fellow corner Sean Smith has also graded out well this year, believe it or not. Maclin is also being used in the slot 45.3% of the time, which sounds good for PPR purposes, but is killing his standard league value. Maclin may appear to be a great value play, but in reality it's a trap. Just one of several tough matchups in this divisional showdown...

 
 
Ezekiel Elliott (RB, DAL) - He's no Emmit Smith. There, now that we've got that out of the way, let's be realistic about Zeke's chances this week. The Packers have the top rushing defense in the league by far, giving up 42.8 YPG. Of course, the Cowboys have the top rushing offense in the league, averaging 155.2 YPG. In matters of offense vs. defense, I usually tend to favor the defense. Although the Falcons proved that wrong last week by beating the Broncos. The Cowboys do have the best O-line in the league too. Now that I think about it, maybe he'll have a big week again! Too late, I already put him on this list. Plus, I hate admitting when Mel Kiper is right about a player. Bust!

 
 
Brandon Marshall (WR, NYJ) - Third time's a charm, right? THIS week, Marshall is sure to be shut down by Patrick Peterson and the Arizona defense. The Jets face a tough road game in the desert on Monday night against a team allowing the fourth-fewest passing yards per game at 189.8. Eric Decker is out for the season, which means defenses can focus on taking Marshall away and forcing Fitzsixpicks to involve lesser skill players. I have absolutely no doubt that Brandon Marshall will be an unequivocal bust this week and if he isn't, I'll never put him on this list again. Until they play the Patriots, that is. They have Martellus Bennett, after all.