Narrowing down a top ten list of starting pitchers is not an easy task. There is so much talent and so many factors to consider. Taking into account everything from the home playing field to divisional rivals, past performance, and injury history, I had to develop a simple formula to make sense of it all.

Three major factors were used for evaluating: career stats, the perceived upside in 2016, and estimated production over the next four seasons. Estimated future production takes into account factors including the players age, various projections, team/contract factors, and I sprinkled in my gut feeling too.

I feel like I am on crazy pills when I leave Felix Hernandez, Max Scherzer, David Price, Zack Greinke and Stephen Strasburg off the top 10, but I did. According to my calculations, owning Chris Archer for his 27-30 year seasons is a lower risk/ higher reward option than owning Felix Hernandez during his 29-32 age season. Honestly, I would rather own King Felix in 2016, but this is again considering the next four years.

Dynasty Starting Pitcher Rankings - The Top 10

Make sure to also check out our awesome 2016 fantasy baseball rankings dashboard, where you will find more of my dynasty rankings. You'll also find RotoBaller staff rankings for all positions, tiered rankings starting to ramp up, MLB prospect rankings for 2016, and much more. Okay, let's get to it.

 
1. Clayton Kershaw, 27

The top arm on our list is Kershaw. No surprise there. He is 27 and will likely retain a top three ranking over the next three seasons barring major injury. Kershaw is simply the best pitcher in the game today.

His 114-56 career win-loss is good for ninth best winning percentage all time behind Babe Ruth and Lefty Grove. Kershaw is, of course a lefty, and very deceptive. He maintains a consistent release point to throw his mid-90’s four seam and mid-80’s slider which happened to lead the league with a 29.6% whiff rate. Oh, and on top of that, he throws a lethal 12-6 curve. He is one of the top five most valuable fantasy assets yearly and the best arm available. Don't be stupid and trade him now.  

2. Jose Fernandez, 23  

Listed at 23 years old, Cuban-born Fernandez is a special talent. He was so good, so soon in his MLB career. If you remember, he never pitched in Double- or Triple-A. In 2014, he became the youngest opening day starter since Doc Gooden in ‘85. His stuff is ridiculous. Fernandez is the first pitcher of the modern era to win his first 17 home appearances. Like I said, he is a special talent and could go down as one of the best ever. He has more risk than Kershaw, so he barely misses the top spot.

3. Matt Harvey, 26

Harvey is a big man. At 6’4’ 220lbs, he is known in New York as The Dark Knight. Born in New London, CT, Harvey’s father was standout college athlete. I bet a lot of you think I ranked him too high.

Almost half of Harvey’s pitches are high-90’s two-seam and four-seam fastballs. He also relies on low-90’s slider when he wants to drop the hammer. After sitting out the entire 2014 season recovering from TJ surgery, Harvey rebounded nicely finishing 13-8 with a 2.71 ERA.  Experts say that pitchers are typically better in their second season after recovery. Harvey is my bold prediction for NL Cy Young and will be in line for a huge payday in the 2017 season.   

4. Chris Sale, 26

The condor is one of only five players to ever play the same year as he was drafted, back in 2010. Sale is a lethal lefty that throws a fastball-slider-changeup combo. His slider comes equipped with a 43% whiff rate. That’s insane. Sale would get the edge over Harvey if he pitched in the NL  East.  

5. Madison Bumgarner, 26

As a baby, Madison Bumgarner's first word was “ball.” He was already playing organized baseball at four years old. Madbum was drafted tenth overall out of High School in the 2007 and made his major league debut in 2009. He is a baseball prodigy.

As a right-handed hitter, Bumgarner became the first pitcher to ever homer off Kershaw in May of 2015. It is fascinating that the only thing MadBum does as a lefty, is pitch. He throws one of the most precise fastballs in baseball, he was the sportsman of the year, and he already has a World Series MVP award on his resume. At 26 years old, the sky's the limit for this wunderkind.  

6. Gerrit Cole, 25

The UCLA Bruin was drafted first overall in the 2011 MLB draft by the Pittsburgh Pirates. At 6’4” 230 lb, Cole is that same size as Crush Davis. He throws a mid to high 90’s fastball that has been clocked as high as 102. With the arrival of Jameson Taillon and Tyler Glasnow, it looks like Pittsburgh will have a nice young staff to compete with the Cardinals.

7. Jake Arrieta, 29

He is the oldest pitcher in the top 10, but he has less mileage than most 29 year olds. After the Orioles completely messed him up and traded him to the Cubs, it took them two seasons to fix him. Arrieta has a total of 795 IP at the professional level. Compare that to Madison Bumgarner who has thrown 1171 innings and is three years younger. Felix Hernandez is the same age as Arrieta and has 2262 IP. Either way, the reigning Cy Young Award winner had a stellar season with a 1.77 ERA and 9.28 K/9 and is on one of the best teams in the majors. He is a great player to own.   

8. Noah Syndergaard, 23

As a weightlifting enthusiast, “Thor” relies mostly on his four-seam fastball and curve, but he can also throw a circle change and slider. Syndergaard brings close to 10 K/9 with an ERA in the low 3’s. He originally joined the Mets by way of trade with the Blue Jays (the R.A. Dickey deal). The Mets staff is going to be something for the history books this year, and it will be real fun to watch who ends up becoming the ace.  And seriously, a pitcher that gets to face the Braves, Phillies and Marlins a bunch of times in a season also gets a boost.

9. Chris Archer, 27

I might get grilled for this choice but I have a feeling about Archer. His breakout 2015 saw him increase the use of his slider significantly, up to 40% of the time while getting elite results. He throws his slider in the low 90’s and it’s basically untouchable. Archer is one of very few pitchers to have an elite strikeout rate in addition to his elite ground ball rate. This combination leads to dominance. Archer will again be a top arm in baseball in 2016, count on it.

10. Jacob deGrom, 27

Owner of the nicest hair in the Mets clubhouse, deGrom might also be their best pitcher. Growing up a shortstop, nobody could have predicted this kind of success for deGrom as a frontline starter when he begrudgingly made the switch to pitching because his collegiate SS prospects ran out. Degrom tied a Mets postseason record with Tom Seaver for striking out 13 batters in one game. #hairwego

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