Second Half Breakouts for Fantasy Baseball - Kevin Larson's "My Guys"

July 17, 2026

Kevin's second-half fantasy baseball breakouts for 2026. These are all MLB hitters and pitchers he's trying to get on his rosters via waiver wire or trade including Heriberto Hernandez, Cooper Pratt, and more.

If you're still coming here for fantasy analysis, then good on you. That means your team is crushing it and you're in a great spot for the playoffs! Either that or you're chasing one of the final spots and need a few diamonds in the rough. Both options mean you're in a great spot and have an eye for talent. But there's a missing piece or two that you need. So let me tell you about the guys I'm aiming for to break out in the second half.

I always try to lean on positive regression as an indicator of someone who's going to break out. Advanced stats lead us in the right direction more often than not. Whether it's fantasy analysis, betting picks, or simple banter among other fans, using advanced stats is the best compass we have. So let's use them to our advantage here.

The goal will be to find hitters and pitchers who are getting hot at the right time. It may not mean it's superstar production we're expecting out of them, but hopefully it's a big enough bump to give you an advantage in your matchups that catapults you in the second half of the season. Now let's get to it.

Heriberto Hernandez, OF, Miami Marlins

Let's start in Miami. The Marlins are a young, upstart team that finds itself not just in the NL Wild Card race, but the NL East race as well. That wasn't something anyone was expecting this season, but it's thanks to some young, under-the-radar hitters who are driving a ton of success.

Heriberto Hernández destroys a game-tying homer 😤 pic.twitter.com/v8BfUBSSaZ

— MLB (@MLB) July 8, 2026

Enter Hernandez. You know about his walk-off grand slam as one of the top highlights for Marlins baseball this season. But he's been a lot more than just one awesome moment. He crushed it at the plate with a 127 wRC+ in June. That was driven by six homers, 12 runs, and 11 RBI.

From a season-long perspective, he's hitting for a .343 wOBA to go along with a .364 xwOBA. That xwOBA ranks in the 85th percentile. His 49.7% hard-hit rate sits in the 89th percentile. Along with an 11.9% barrel rate (77th percentile), that makes him a really formidable hitter in a surprisingly strong lineup.

He's stronger against lefties, so fantasy managers should prioritize him when he has a platoon advantage. But he's still hitting incredibly well right now and should be getting into lineups regardless of who's on the mound.

With a roster percentage of just 6% in Yahoo! leagues, there's no reason he shouldn't be on your roster. It's a deep pool when dealing with outfielders, but adding Hernandez is such an incredibly low-risk move that it's almost irresponsible not to add him to your roster. Do it now and reap the benefits later.

Cooper Pratt, SS, Milwaukee Brewers

If you're looking for another low-risk pickup, then Pratt's going to be the man for you. On just 4% of Yahoo! rosters, Pratt is the perfect candidate for a second-half breakout. The Brewers called up the rookie in mid-June after they released Luis Rengifo. Joey Ortiz slid over from shortstop to third, and Pratt's been the starter ever since.

First Big League RBI and multi-hit game for Coop ‼️ pic.twitter.com/FZ6Q2ut9AU

— Milwaukee Brewers (@Brewers) June 18, 2026

So why Pratt? Let's go back to why I'm focused on most everyone here: Positive regression. Pratt came into Saturday (7/11) with a .317 wOBA that's paired with a .388 xwOBA. It's over just 81 plate appearances, but sign me up for a jump that big!

One stat I always harp on in my weekly Breakouts vs Fake Outs article is walk rate. Walks get you on base when the bat isn't performing well. Pratt has an excellent walk rate. He's walking at a 13.5% rate in the majors. That's not a mistake either. He posted a 12.7% walk rate in Double-A Biloxi and a 13.0% walk rate with Triple-A Nashville.

The more he's on base, the more likely he is to be driven in, and those runs drive fantasy value. He's also turning those into stolen bases. He's snagged six stolen bases and has only gotten caught once. With speed that ranks in the 88th percentile, that's going to help get him some additional value that other players can't quite bring.

All of that's going to be helpful because Pratt isn't quite the power hitter. He is, however, someone who excels with contact and has a high line drive rate. That's sitting at 30.5% right now, a really nice level to be hovering at. That may decrease, but it's still going to stay above average and get him more opportunities.

So we not only have a lot of info backing up Pratt as a solid breakout, but he's not exactly on many rosters right now. That's going to give him value as a very low-risk pickup in a very effective Brewers lineup. Snag him while you can.

Ian Seymour, SP, Tampa Bay Rays

Let's show some love to the pitchers, now. Seymour has seen usage throughout the Rays' staff this year, be it as a reliever or as a starter. Over the past month, he's been used more as a starter than a reliever, and he's been delivering. He'd racked up 27 strikeouts over his last three appearances (two starts and one with an opener) prior to a subpar outing against Seattle on Sunday.

Ian Seymour collected a career-high 12 strikeouts last night and had whiff rates of over 45% on his 4-Seam and Changeup.

Over his last 3 appearances:

18 IP I 27 K I 1.94 xERA I 38.5% K-BB% pic.twitter.com/5lL7o37ciC

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) July 8, 2026

The strikeouts are something that he can provide as a starter that wasn't always evident as a reliever. He's in the 79th percentile for chase rate, 78th percentile for whiff rate, and the 82nd percentile for strikeout rate. Racking up the Ks is just what he does.

We're also looking at positive regression for Seymour, though just how much is up for debate. His 4.59 ERA comes along with a 3.48 xERA and a 4.00 xFIP. If you filter it down to just Seymour's starts, then the xFIP drops all the way to 3.12 in 25.2 IP. Small sample size, but still very impressive.

From a full-season perspective, he's got a trio of pitches with really solid numbers. His changeup, sweeper, and four-seam fastball all have batting averages and expected batting averages of .200 or lower. The changeup and sweeper both have sub-.300 xwOBA marks, while his four-seamer has a .308 xwOBA, making them some really solid pitches for Seymour to use at his disposal.

Seymour's on 59% of Yahoo! rosters, making him a bit less of a find compared to Hernandez or Pratt. But I love the versatility with him being listed as both a starting pitcher and a relief pitcher. You can ride the hot streak with him as a starter, and if he returns to his traditional role in the bullpen, then you have a really solid reliever still.

Don't worry too much about his last start against the Mariners. In my eyes, that's just a bit of a blip on the radar more than anything. As long as the strikeout rate stays steady, Seymour's going to be a fantastic pickup. Get him if you can and reap the benefits.

Cade Cavalli, SP, Washington Nationals

Maybe this is a little bit late to consider as a breakout, but I like what I've seen from Cavalli in the first half so far. A 3.83 ERA and a 3.58 xFIP show us there's a little room left in the tank, and that's always a good thing.

Make it 13 strikeouts for Cade Cavalli on pitch No. 100! https://t.co/u1cmzRXRRi pic.twitter.com/eVL1n3fIXG

— MLB (@MLB) July 1, 2026

June showed a lot of potential for Cavalli. His 3.82 ERA during the month is already solid, but his 3.07 xFIP is what I'm really gravitating to. That was a top-10 xFIP in June among qualified starters. He hasn't gotten off to the same start in July, but there's potential for the second half of the season.

On top of solid overall numbers, Cavalli is posting a 25.4% strikeout rate that ranks in the 70th percentile. He's also got a ground-ball rate of 49.5% that ranks in the 83rd percentile. Those are two things that make a pitcher very tough to score on and should pay off for the 27-year-old sooner rather than later.

In Yahoo! leagues, Cavalli is rostered in just 35% of leagues. Struggles in his last couple of starts have likely contributed to him not being rostered as highly as he deserves, but it gives you the opportunity to snag him. With the Nationals finding themselves in the NL Wild Card race, that may mean more opportunities to rack up wins as well.

Cavalli fits the bill as a solid starter to add to your roster with decent breakout potential. Now, onto our final breakout player.

Esmerlyn Valdez, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates

I needed to get some analysis on Valdez in here. I wanted to get him added to my most recent edition of Hitter Breakouts vs Fake Outs, but the amazing Thunder Dan got to him the week before when he was covering for me. So while this is because I just really want to take a deep-ish dive into Valdez's performance, it's also because he's been smoking hot.

ESMERLYN VALDEZ ... AGAIN 🤯

This is his third home run today! pic.twitter.com/JbFryeAB0F

— MLB (@MLB) July 11, 2026

In his short time in the majors, he's hit for a 186 wRC+ with 10 homers, 21 runs, and 27 RBI. He's absolutely cooking. Since he started getting more regular playing time (June 24th), he's led the Pirates in each of those four categories. The only thing he's not doing is stealing bases.

He's doing a lot of good things in his batted ball profile, too, most notably keeping the ball off the ground. His 52.6% fly-ball rate is helping keep him out of trouble. It's a bit higher than what he's done in the minors, but when his fly-ball rate was lower, he generally saw a higher line-drive rate. It is not translating into more groundballs that is key.

Now, after such a hot start, it's no surprise to see that xwOBA is predicting negative regression. But I wouldn't have him on here if I didn't think he'd still do well. His .374 xwOBA would rank in the 92nd percentile, matching that of fellow NL Central breakout Jordan Walker. Some really solid numbers with his barrel rate and hard-hit rate only help build the case for Valdez even further.

Somehow, he's on just 57% of rosters in Yahoo! leagues. With this type of production, he needs to be on as many rosters as possible. While he's in the midst of a breakout, and I'm not exactly taking a huge leap here in recommending him to you, he's very under-rostered. That makes him the perfect candidate here as he's set to be an upper-echelon level producer for the rest of the season. Get him on your roster as soon as you can.

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