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Brant's best college football predictions and upset picks for Week 1 of the 2025 season. His top CFB underdogs and favorites on upset watch including Alabama, more.
The long and winding offseason has come to a close. We got a taste over the weekend of college football with Week 0, but the first full slate is going to hit like Christmas morning as a kid. From three top-10 matchups to a plethora of young talent, there is so much to watch for. That being said, nothing screams college football like an upset. It's what separates itself from other leagues and sports.
I am starting this new weekly column where I will identify a handful of teams that need to be watched closely for the upcoming week. To qualify, the teams I select have to be an underdog by more than three points according to Vegas lines.
This week’s crop is a mix of longshots and teams that realistically could get the job done. While the three top ten matchups and prime time/standalone games are likely to steal most national attention, these games cannot be ignored this weekend. Bust out the multiple TV setup, because it will be needed. Soak in all the action you can, because the season ends in the blink of an eye. Without further ado, let's call the upsets!
USF Bulls (vs. Boise State)
USF welcomes Boise State to town on Thursday with a rare 5:30 pm kickoff. The Bulls are 6.5-point underdogs in their home stadium, rightfully so against a Boise team that wiped out all non-Power Five competition a season ago. That being said, we all know that Ashton Jeanty is no longer in college. The Broncos’ offensive identity will need a revamp, and incumbent starting quarterback Maddux Madsen has proven to be more of a game manager than a focal point.
On Thursday Byrum Brown will play his first game in 10 months. Says he’s ready. Looking forward to hard work in camp showing up on the big stage. @USFFootball pic.twitter.com/Rcx2czPXaY
— Jim Louk (@USFjimlouk) August 25, 2025
As for USF, quarterback Byrum Brown is back after missing most of 2024 with a broken leg. Brown has played very well in games against larger opponents, impressing most recently against Alabama in 2024. His dual-threat ability will be on full display against a Boise defense that faces a lot of turnover from last year’s playoff team.
With this game being in Raymond James, I don’t see a world where Boise isn’t tested to the max in the season opener.
Northwestern Wildcats (at Tulane)
Northwestern was very bad last year, finishing the season at 4-8 with just two Big Ten wins. Tulane, on the other hand, is coming off a great season and is considered one of the top Group of 5 contenders for the playoffs. Especially after adding former BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff, the Green Wave are firmly in the mix of top G5 teams. They are favored by six points on Saturday.
The Wildcats always seem to be a competent football team when they have the lowest expectations. That could very well be true this year, as David Braun did well in the transfer portal. For the first time in a while, Northwestern will have a legit quarterback under center. SMU transfer Preston Stone is in line to start just two seasons removed from throwing for 3,197 yards, 28 touchdowns, and six interceptions.
Officially GAME WEEK 😼 pic.twitter.com/Z5lY8OKZog
— Northwestern Football (@NUFBFamily) August 25, 2025
Stone lost the starting job to Kevin Jennings, but was not necessarily playing poorly.
Stone’s go-to target is likely to be Griffin Wilde, a former South Dakota State receiver coming off a 1,154-yard, 12-touchdown season. Throw in three likely transfer starters on the offensive line, and this will be a completely different offense than the stagnant one we saw a season ago.
The game is in New Orleans, which makes it more difficult for the Wildcats, but I anticipate them keeping it close with the Green Wave and potentially sneaking out with a tough road win.
Toledo Rockets (at Kentucky)
Toledo faces the formidable challenge of playing an SEC road game in Week 1, as they travel south to Lexington to take on Mark Stoops’ Kentucky Wildcats. This is easily a must-win game for Stoops, whose program has underperformed the past few seasons.
Jason Candle has never had a losing season at Toledo and has established the Rockets as one of the MAC’s premier programs. With incumbent quarterback Tucker Gleason back under center, the Rockets should have a good amount of experience and continuity from last year’s team. The same team that beat an SEC opponent 41-17 early in the season last year.
Toledo football head coach Jason Candle is speaking to the media today.
Candle on why Toledo has found success against power four opponents:
“Our team is pretty consistent with our emotion.”
— Yaw Bonsu (@yawbonsu27) August 25, 2025
As for Kentucky, former Incarnate Word and Texas A&M quarterback Zach Calzada will be under center. After a disappointing 2024 season, Stoops hit the transfer portal to regroup for 2025. While this was the right approach to rebuild a team, it could lead to a messy start to the season. Toledo could not get this Kentucky team at a better time.
They are only 7.5-point underdogs, but this game could be even closer than that.
Florida State Seminoles (vs. Alabama)
Before getting up in arms about this take, look at the scene ahead of us. D.J. Uiagalelei is gone, as is the majority of last year’s 2-10 team. Mike Norvell hit the transfer portal in 2023 and nearly made the CFP, finishing 13-1. That approach backfired last year, but the Seminoles reloaded again, and this year’s team should have a lot more fight than the previous season’s.
The passing game could be lethal with Boston College transfer Thomas Castellanos slinging the ball to USC transfer Duce Robinson, who has reportedly looked like a legit NFL prospect throughout camp. True freshmen Jayvan Boggs and Ousmane Kromah should be instant contributors on the offensive side of the ball as well, loading up what was previously an unwatchable offense.
As for Alabama, Ty Simpson will be making his first career start. The Crimson Tide is returning a lot of talent on defense and rightfully favored by 13.5 in this game, but pair a first-time starter in a hostile environment on the road with the fact that the Seminoles are underrated, given that it is an entirely new team, and this game should be a lot closer than projected.
Castellanos pulled off a Week 1 upset against Florida State last season; now, he has the opportunity to pull one off for them in 2025.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (at Arizona)
Already 1-0, Hawaii will carry the momentum from the Week 0 win over Stanford with them into Week 1 against Arizona. After a disappointing 2024 season, the Wildcats lost a lot of talent in the transfer portal to Washington, along with losing star receiver Tetairoa McMillan to the NFL Draft. Noah Fifita took a big step backwards and is now working with a worse group of weapons.
Meanwhile, Hawaii quarterback Micah Alejado has been impressive in his limited game action. The young signal caller is surrounded by talent and will leave it all on the field every game. Although this after-dark game is in Arizona, the 17.5-point spread feels disrespectful to the Rainbow Warriors. Stay up past prime time, you won’t want to miss this potential upset.
GRITTY.@MicahAlejado x #BRADDAHHOOD pic.twitter.com/bIYzQLJyUM
— Hawaii Football (@HawaiiFootball) August 24, 2025
