TGL Match Preview: Boston Common vs. Los Angeles Golf Club

February 4, 2025

TourPicks offers a preview of TGL Match 5 between the Los Angeles Golf Club and Boston Common Golf. Insight and analysis into TGL strategy, holes, betting lines, and picks to win for Match #5 of TGL golf.

TGL finally got the match and the moment it was looking for when the Jupiter Links upset the Boston Common in overtime last Monday. Tonight, Boston returns to Palm Beach and the Sofi Center in need of a win as they take on the 1-0 Los Angeles Golf Club at 9 pm ET on ESPN.

It's an iconic matchup in all sports when Boston takes on LA, and now TGL has its opportunity to partake in the longstanding rivalry. It's the two teams with the highest average OWGR rankings with Boston being led by the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Champion from this past weekend and TGL co-founder, Rory McIlroy. LAGC has a stacked roster of players in great form, with Tommy Fleetwood making his TGL debut tonight.

Here is everything you need to know for Match #5 of the season:

The Players

Boston Common

Player 1: Rory McIlory (OWGR Rank: 3)

Player 2: Adam Scott (OWGR Rank: 22)

Player 3: Keegan Bradley (OWGR Rank: 13)

Los Angeles Golf Club

Player 1: Tommy Fleetwood (OWGR Rank: 11)

Player 2: Collin Morikawa (OWGR Rank: 4)

Player 3: Justin Rose (OWGR Rank: 33)

The player number is important because that reflects the order of both the Triples portion and creates the matchups for the individual singles sessions.

Two powerhouses, tomorrow night at 9pm ET on ESPN. pic.twitter.com/k0fRgu2rfM

— TGL (@TGL) February 3, 2025

The Course

Each week the TGL selects a new set of 15 holes for the match. This week features five par 3s, five par 4s, and five par 5s. We have a few new holes that we will see for the first time this week, starting with Hole 6 which is a 488-yard par 4 named Hang Low. We will also get a brand new par 3, playing 194 yards (Fallen Pine) and the final hole of the night will be our first glimpse of the 590 Par 5 called the Navigator.

One of the things that Adam Scott brought up last week in the post-match presser was the amount of long iron shots that you hit in TGL. They are especially tough because the green itself is small in square footage (they only had so much room), which makes hitting the green from 180-220 yards very difficult, even for the best in the world.

Pay attention to Hole 2, Pick Yer Plunder, a true risk/reward Par 5 that has seen four shots go into the penalty area, most of any TGL hole. The team that navigates this hole correctly will likely end up with an early lead. Adam Scott and Collin Morikawa will hit the tee shots on this hole.

Hole Spotlight

The Navigator

Tonight we get the debut of the Navigator, a 590-yard Par 5 that will be the closing hole of tonight's match. Oddsmakers expect a very tight match which leads me to believe that winning or losing could ultimately come down to this final hole. Set along a cape with water running up the entire right side, this hole poses several questions to players with risk/reward start lines that must be chosen strategically.

Competing one-on-one on this singles' hole will be Keegan Bradley and Justin Rose. Bradley ranks 37th on the PGA Tour in Total driving this season, averaging 304 yards in Driving Distance and hitting 62% of fairways. He ranks 33rd in SG: OTT this season, making it his best individual strokes gained category. Rose has struggled OTT this year, ranking 145th on the PGA Tour and losing an average of -.027 strokes per round OTT.

Taking on this green in two shots is a risky proposition as you can it is surrounded by water on an island. As you can see in this photo below, even if you carry in the first inlet and hit a quality drive, you are still left with around 270-280 yards into the green. Given the size of the green, unless you are down in the match and need to make a big move, the proper play appears to be making it a 3-shotter and laying up.

The par 5 holes have been crucial to victory. Winning teams this season have combined to lose only two of them all year. This hole brings some interesting strategy into play and it will be fun to see how these two veterans choose to attack the final hole of the night, The Navigator.

The Betting Line

Boston Common -105 vs. LA Golf Club -115 (via betonline)

There is some interesting discrepancy on this betting line with various sportsbooks. I have seen some with Boston Common listed as -125 favorites, but this particular book has made them an underdog. It's crazy to use this term in TGL, but with such a short season this feels like it's a must-win for Boston who came into the year as one of the co-favorites to win the inaugural TGL championship.

They have the highest-rated team in terms of OWGR and I think it works in their favor that they will be returning the exact same 3-player roster as last week (McIlroy, Scott, and Bradley). By the transitive property, L.A. may appear to be an easy bet as they dominated the Jupiter Links, scoring a record total of 12 points while Boston lost to that same Jupiter team the following week.

On the more quantifiable elements of TGL appears early on to be familiarity with the experience and in particular, the green. Boston had several blunders on and around the artificial surface last week and will need to clean that up this week. I expect a better performance this week. Boston still has a big advantage in distance, with McIlroy being the longest player in TGL and averaging 322 yards OTT last week. LAGC only averaged 308 yards and will be without their longest player from their first match in Theegala, who is replaced by Tommy Fleetwood.

I don't believe LAGC was particularly sharp in their dominating win. Jupiter was just terrible that week. LAGC only hit 7 of 15 greens, the fewest of any winning side thus far. Boston hit 10 out of 15 greens in their lost last week and also hit the fairway 70% of the time which is pretty good considering their distance advantage. I don't foresee them going 0-2 given their talent and now that they broke the ice last week, I fully expect a solid performance from their returning three players tonight.

My Picks:

Boston to win -105

McIlroy to beat Fleetwood in Singles -140

Match Leader after 9 Holes - Boston +120

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